SUMMARY: Clipper Dumps On Us

I should have known, and I kind of eluded to it in my last post, but this clipper had the opportunity to overachieve. We knew a deformation would setup with the frontogenesis yesterday evening, but we didn't know when and where. Well it ended up right between Dayton and Columbus. A large part of Central Ohio got between 3"-4". CMH and right here at home ended up with 3.5", by far our largest storm of the season.

The biggest total I've found reported was 4.8" in Westerville. Unofficial, though.

This storm probably went on the high side of snow:liquid ratio, I'd guess even 18:1 because of the extreme cold.

This was the first storm that was worth a look from the drone. I hope you enjoy my compilation below!

After this storm I don't see any big snowfalls on the horizon, mostly because we're about to get even colder than we have been. I can see the potential for at least three nights over the next 7 nights that temps could drop below zero. And every night should be 10 degrees or colder. We're in the grips of some of the coldest weather we've seen in years. So all of that snow we just got? It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Last Snow of 2017

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for quite a few counties here in Central Ohio in advance of our quick hitting clipper that'll make its way in to our area tonight:

The only areas really left out are around the Ohio River. Snow should use the I-70 corridor as its route, so points south may only get a dusting at best. But for us, that means we should get the brunt of it. Whatever that's worth... this is a clipper, I don't anticipate a big dump.

Snow should start for us around sunset and last most of the night. By early morning Saturday we should taper off to snow showers, but for several hours tonight we'll have a good thumping of light to moderate snowfall:

This is radar simulation from the NAM, which shows most of the moisture should be out ahead of the main disturbance. Models have honed in on 2" of new snow by noon tomorrow, and I think that's a safe bet. If anything I was burned on the last storm, so normally I would trend lower on the totals. But we're in an extremely cold airmass right now, with even colder air behind this storm, so snow:liquid ratios are going to be in the 16:1 to 18:1 neighborhood. This would support a solid 2" over several hours of light snow in a normal situation. However I think we're going to see a couple hours of more moderate snowfall somewhere around Ohio as frontogenesis develops ahead of the main system. That area, where ever it develops, could see something more along the line of 3", easily.

Another storm where I won't be making a snowfall map, because I think for Central Ohio it'll be a pretty uniform gradient except where ever that heavier band sets up. Expect everyone to hit 2", which would also make it our biggest snowfall of the season.

Oh yeah, and then get ready for colder air. Even colder than we've experienced lately. As in the potential for below zero readings on New Year's Eve. Brace yourselves everyone, the arctic is evacuating to Ohio.

Coldest Morning of 2017?

By some definitions, we did end up with a White Christmas for most of Central Ohio. CMH reported 0.8" of new snow Christmas Eve in to early Christmas Day, and I ended up with 0.5" in Canal Winchester. Dayton and Cincinnati ended up with a little more than us, but overall it's safe to say that everyone saw something. By the one inch on the ground definition, we missed out. But I'd say since it's been 7 years since we saw that, I think most people will just be happy that there was anything at all.

Franklin County was added to the Winter Weather Advisory on Sunday, and that was a mistake. I think the NWS just threw that out there because of the potential to snarl traffic on a holiday.

But as that cold air began to pour in to the area Christmas morning we felt the first real arctic cold of the Winter season. We've pretty much been on a gradual trend downward since Sunday night, and we hit rock bottom this morning with a low temp at my house of 4°. Some places like Columbus and Dayton had their coldest morning of all of 2017. That's rare, considering January traditionally sees our coldest temps, especially in to the second week of the year. So we're a few weeks early with the extreme cold.

But it's not over.

There's a chance we go NYE in to New Year's Day with the coldest temps of the season so far, if you believe the latest Euro run:

Without much wind, we won't have a wind chill warning that morning, but perhaps an advisory.

Check back again tomorrow or Friday as I'll discuss one last snow of 2017!

White Christmas: It's Happening!

After days of model after model run hinting at some light snow for Christmas Eve in to Christmas Day, it's finally happening. An inch of rain the past couple days left the ground warm, but the cool down to below freezing temps for the foreseeable future has opened the door to storm systems to bring snow!

Here's a look at the NAM for 1pm tomorrow with an approaching shortwave, spreading snow in mostly northern Ohio:

For areas north of that dotted line, we should see a decent 3-4" of snow, and those areas will get more prolonged snow. I feel safe to make the prediction that Central Ohio will see 2" of snow. There's the potential if this storm moves further south we could see more, but I think 2" is a safe bet for us.

It's a Christmas miracle, we should see our first White Christmas since 2010! Merry Christmas everyone!

White Christmas: Chances Increase for Light Snow

As time has allowed models to come in to better agreement on storm setups, I don't think we have a chance at a major winter storm for Christmas this year. But I don't think we can completely rule out some flakes flying.

If you remember my last post, I said there would be a major southern low that warmed things up around here before we came crashing down. Then I said another storm would approach. It's that second storm that at this time appears to be much weaker in nature than originally thought.

Let's start with the first system, which will enter our area Friday night and bring rain on Saturday:

 This is from the Euro, and it shows more of an eastward track, instead of northeast. That matters, because the GFS doesn't go this route. With the northeastward track we would have precip around longer, so when the cold air crashes in, we could see snow changeover. The GFS I think overdoes this a little with 3-5" of snow by Christmas Eve day in northwest Ohio. The Euro shows a brief changeover in southeast Ohio as it exits.

So placement and direction is everything.

On the other hand, the GFS doesn't even recognize the second system that the Euro picks up on, which is what could bring light snow showers Christmas Day:

I'm not at the point where I trust the GFS and its snow statement from Saturday afternoon, so I'm sticking with the Euro on this one. I think we see some festive flakes Sunday night in to Monday, but accumulations should stay light. There's still a chance this shortwave Christmas Day is more potent than models think right now and we get an over achieving system, but I wouldn't count on it.

As of now, expect a warm and wet Friday in to Saturday, a sharp cool down, and snow showers in to the holiday.

White Christmas: It'll Be Close

We haven't had a white Christmas here in Central Ohio in 7 years. In that time, Christmas Days have been memorably unmemorable in the weather department. For travel that's a great thing. Everyone's getting to their destinations locally with minimal interruptions over the past several years. But for me, I'd rather we get a little of the white stuff on the ground, even if it occurs days before. As long as we wake up with at least an inch on the ground Christmas morning, it's considered a success.

So if you've read #WxTwitter any lately, or even listening in to TV personalities, there seems to be some hype for the upcoming 7-10 days. And with good reason!

After a rather active pattern over the past week, we've hit a lull lately. In fact, we're hitting a stretch of 4-5 days where we should go progressively above average for temps. This is all leading up to the aforementioned hype near the holiday weekend.

Looking toward next Saturday, a very sharp temperature anomoly contrast across the country presents itself. That's because an insanely strong arctic blast will come down out of Canada, with a low pressure developinng somewhere along the southern Plains and making its way northeastward. The question would be... where?

If anyone tells you they know exactly where this system will develop and track, they're making it up as they go. Models are honing in on a consensus, but this is anything but a sure thing. The temp anomoly map is the Euro from December 23rd, and while it shows a good depiction of where the warm air should rush out ahead of the system, there's still not certainty about anything after that.

The next map I'm going to show you is from the day after Christmas. It looks like the cold air has deepened over the midwest, but hasn't moved an awful lot. That's because as of now, it looks like the first system will move north and get caught back up in Canada, leaving another system the chance to develop on the tail end of the first front:

So if things play out the way they're looking now, this will be a multi-day event. Will it be rain or snow for us? Will we get a White Christmas or a cold and rainy one? I think it's way too soon to say for sure, but I'll definitely be following it closely. Keep checking back for more updates on the progress of the models and forecasting.

And for people like me... keep your fingers crossed this thing trends colder and further east!

This Clipper Is A Dud

I won't waste too many words on this one. The clipper flying through our region tonight will bring some gusts and a reinforcing shot of cold air, but I don't see much in the way of snow tonight. At least not in Central Ohio. Northern Ohio is a different story, where they have their first Winter Weather Advisory of the season and could see over 3" in most spots. This is a potent clipper, but it's staying too far north for us to get in on the action.

The 7pm radar simulation for the HRRR seems to understand the dry lower levels of the atmosphere, as it keeps us dry for the most part south of I-70.

Even the radar right now is showing moisture as the initial "warm front" gusts through. But, nothing's falling:

I'd say our only chance will be from that pocket behind the main line later tonight, but even that seems unlikely for more than a dusting tonight.

We'll take a breather after this, waiting for another potential storm on Sunday.

QUICK UPDATE: Prepare for Squalls

So the snow I highlighted yesterday that seemed to "disappear" from the latest model runs actually appeared in the early morning hours. In Canal Winchester, we started as a light freezing rain for only a very short time before changing to sleet, and then snow by sunrise. That was enough to probably bring a quarter inch of snow.

The sun came out for a short time, melting off much of what fell, even though temps continued to drop. Since sunrise we've dropped 6 degrees, with single digit wind chills common in these gusty conditions.

But what we should watch out for this afternoon and in to the evening rush is the possibility of some heavy snow squalls from this fetch off of Lake Michigan. I've highlighted in red the general motion of these squalls this morning, compared to what we should see as the afternoon goes on in green:

As I said yesterday, the conditions are just right with these high winds coming across the lakes and stretching the snow as far as east Central Ohio in to this evening. By nightfall, these winds should back off, and so should the snow showers. Just be very careful headed home today, as these squalls will be enough to bring visibility down to 0 in some places. Bad timing for rush hour.

I'll post tomorrow about tomorrow night's storm.

UPCOMING: More Squalls

I wouldn't say we're in for a lot of snow over the next couple days, but it feels like we have a lot of chances for snow.

A couple days ago this incoming clipper seemed like it may bring more snow than the Saturday one we had. I was thinking this one may pack a bigger punch, bringing possibly 2+". Well, this storm will be more powerful, as it begins to bomb out as it heads toward the coast and brings gusty winds tomorrow in to Wednesday morning. But as you'll see below, an area I thought would have more moisture is pretty empty on the latest NAM simulated radar:

However, you'll notice behind the main push of the clipper an area of lake enhanced snow coming off of Lake Michigan. It takes a pretty strong flow off the lakes to bring bands this far south and east, but tomorrow may be one of the few times a year the environment will be just right. 

If the original area had developed overnight tonight, I think we could be waking up to half an inch tomorrow. Instead we saw a Special Weather Statement from the NWS this afternoon highlighting the chance for some freezing drizzle in the morning. I think that chance is very slim. Instead, I think the threat will still be the chance for some light snow overnight, followed by the chance of some heavy snow squalls throughout the day and very gusty winds.

So how much accumulation could we have? It's hard to tell. It'll all depend on where the bands off of the lake setup. Look at this snowfall model showing huge local differences:

So I say on average we should see half an inch of snow over Central Ohio over the next 24 hours. And then get ready for more on Wednesday night, which I'll talk more about after this system. Sure is an active period!

SUMMARY: It Did Snow

This storm didn't over or under achieve. It was exactly what we thought for our first snow of the season, just about an inch everywhere in Central Ohio. Here's the totals from the NWS:

Franklin County...
   2 S Downtown Columbu   1.5   800 PM 12/09  Public                  
   KCMH John Glenn Cbus   1.4   651 PM 12/09  ASOS                    
   Clintonville           1.3   719 PM 12/09  Public                  
   1 NNW KTZR Bolton Fi   1.0   830 PM 12/09  Trained Spotter         
   Canal Winchester       1.0   711 PM 12/09  Trained Spotter         
   6 WSW Downtown Colum   0.7   625 PM 12/09  Public                  
   Hilliard               0.5   333 PM 12/09  Public

Pickaway County...
   1 NNW Circleville      1.0  1001 PM 12/09  Dept of Transportation

Fairfield County...
   2 SSW Lancaster        0.5   629 PM 12/09  Dept of Transportation

Delaware County...
   Sunbury                1.1   857 PM 12/09  Broadcast Media         
   3 NNE Westerville      1.1   836 PM 12/09  Social Media            
   N Delaware             0.5   408 PM 12/09  Public

Licking County...
   5 SSE Heath            0.3   909 PM 12/09  Dept of Transportation

I ended up with 1.25" here in Canal Winchester, accumulating over several hours yesterday. We only saw a couple of heavier bands that lasted for a short time, so we never got those pockets of 2"+ around town.

While I didn't have time to get my drone out for some sky shots of the snow, this is the timelapse of the snow covering up my roof cam:

Next up, another chance of snow tomorrow night in to Tuesday. As of now I think the heavier accumulations stay north of us as the clipper moves more through the Great Lakes, but I'll update tomorrow with details.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
November: 0" (Predicted: 0")
December: 1.25" (Predicted: 1")

Season: 1.25"

First Snow of '17-'18 Season

Here it comes, a quick hitting clipper across the lakes will bring us our first measurable snow of the season.

It doesn't present as much on radar, but I think this has the potential to overachieve for some people. Do I mean huge totals? No. Just in the sense that I don't expect more than an inch for everyone, and a band could come off Lake Michigan later that drops another inch.

This entire area is actually going to begin to rotate later today as this interacts with the east coast system. The snow you see on radar right now over Lake Michigan is going to rotate down in to our area after dark. This should be an off and on all day and night snow for us, so if some areas reach two inches, I wouldn't be surprised. However for now, I'm staying conservative and saying one inch for Central Ohio.

UPDATE: First Accumulation of the Season Expected Saturday

We're a little over 48 hours out from a clipper diving through the area Saturday and more than likely giving most of us our first coating of snow of the season. While I wouldn't expect this to be anything more than a light accumulation, the trends are bringing the low pressure further and further south with each model run. The further south that tracks, the higher our totals.

The latest NAM depicts a light snow across the area Saturday afternoon:

The scattered nature is what should keep totals low for Central Ohio, and further north it's a more solid distribution, leading to over an inch.

Speaking of totals, NWS Wilmington put this out this morning:

I think this is a good reference point for what the accumulation gradient should look like, but I don't think this forecast should be considered official just yet. Again, if that low pressure dives any further south, parts of Columbus could get closer to that 1-2" range.

I'll finalize my forecast tomorrow and post again then.

Ok, Now Here Comes Winter

Have you enjoyed the warm temps the past few days? So far every day has hit 50° in December, which is a very warm rarity. But that changes now. Here comes the much advertised cold from that'll bring permanent winter air our way:

Expect gusts up to 40mph this afternoon and temps dropping to the 30s before sunset. That'll be a shock to the system to some of these warm weather lovers around here. For people like me? I know what it means.

SNOW.

Ok, don't get too excited. This doesn't mean we'll get 12" in the next week. But little bouts of snow showers could be possible a couple times in the near future:

Wednesday

Nothing much to see here. There's a chance of flurries as the cold air spills in behind today's cold front.

Saturday

Even with it being several days out, there's a pretty good consensus with models that we should see a clipper dive through the Great Lakes Friday night in to Saturday. Again, I'm not thinking this is a huge event by any means, but a quick inch wouldn't be out of the question:

Beyond that I'm thinking we could see another clipper a couple days later. That's way too far out to track just yet, but the point I'm making is the pattern is finally here. After weeks of nothingness, we're active and cold. 

As far out as 10 days away we're still in a very cold pattern, too. Continuous reinforcing shots of cold air are spilling in behind each clipper, keeping us a solid 10-15° below normal. The combination of cold and activeness should lead to some light snow once every 2-3 days as long as this pattern continues. 

Good news for us snow lovers, bad news for everyone else.

First Teens of the Season

'Tis the season for wild weather swings. We're going from tornadoes Sunday night to temps in the teens Friday night. That's a pretty active week if you ask me.

Look at the NAM for Saturday morning. A large section of the eastern US dipping below freezing:

This is a big deal considering we've only spent a few hours below freezing so far this season. This morning's 27° was the coldest I've recorded at home, but that low should be beat easily the next two nights. Right now the NWS lows are forecasted for 23° and 18° respectively.

Unfortunately for snow lovers, this cold blast is as dry as they come. Low temps like this so early in the season usually doesn't come with precip, so our best chance in November would be some sort of hybrid southern low or a clipper, neither of which is on the horizon.

We're still going to have to keep an eye out for a potential storm on Thanksgiving week that could mess up some travel plans. I'll keep you updated.

Sunday's Heavy Rain Brings Another Cooldown

Well that was eventful. High wind, heavy rains, and so far at least one confirmed tornado. I had a co-worker say this morning, "wow, you don't see that in November!" Well, sometimes you do, but I agree this wasn't an ordinary November frontal passage.

Below is from the NWS Wilmington with reported rain totals. I received 3.07"

This storm would be our third big front to pass through this season, which means we're close to a permanent cool down to winter-like weather. Expect highs in the 50s the rest of the week, with an even bigger cool down coming in the mid range. I'll post more about that later this week.

Strong Front Bring Storms to Central Ohio

Original Post: 5:07pm
Latest Update (Below): 7:26pm
For those of you keeping score at home, we've already seen two strong fronts this season, slowly dropping our average temperature and in the case of the last one... bringing some flakes.

When you combine the forces at play - warm and cold air masses - eventually you could end up with a day like today where severe weather is at play.

Luckily the SPC has been on this for the past few days, keeping us in a slight to enhanced risk for storms this evening. So far this has verified. We've seen large, violent tornadoes in Indiana and extreme Western Ohio already today, and now that system is headed this way.

Here's what the regional radar looks like right now:

So what we've seen so far is just the tip of the system. We'll be dealing with this all night.

Areas north and west of I-71 are under a Tornado Watch, and all of Central Ohio is under a Flash Flood Watch. This is a long duration event, but there IS good news:

What I've highlighted above is that in the short term we should be "saved" by some deteriorating parts of the MCS that should eliminate some instability. The next limiting factor will be the setting sun. But... I don't promise that this will eliminate all chance of severe weather.

I think some of these storms could have staying power as they move in from the west. I'll update this post if any become severe in our immediate area.

UPDATE: 5:41pm
Keep this in mind tonight, even if the severe threat does not materialize in our local area, heavy rain will be a real threat. More than likely 1"+ for everyone, with locally heavier:

UPDATE: 6:06pm
Expect the lightning activity, heavy rain and winds to pick up in Central Ohio here over the next 1-2 hours:

Also, the SPC is discussing replacing the Tornado Watch with another watch once it expires at 7pm. The real question will be whether they issue another Tornado Watch, or downgrade to a Thunderstorm Watch with the main threat being high winds.

UPDATE: 6:26pm
Here we go, our first warning in the area, it's a Tornado Warning for London and West Jefferson. You can see the small kink in the squall line, where the tornado could develop:

UPDATE: 6:54pm
The Tornado Warning was dropped after the rotation broadened quickly, but a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northern Franklin County quickly followed.

This decent bow echo could produce some decent gusts, but more importantly heavy rains:

Just as I added this to the post, another Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for all of eastern Franklin, and some of Licking and Fairfield Counties. This line should pack a decent punch for November.

UPDATE: 7:26pm
As the line of storms advances through our area, the severe threat should greatly diminish. All of Central Ohio is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 1am, but I expect that to be cancelled early as our threat is quickly shifting to a flood risk.

More than likely this will be the last update. Keep away from flooded roads overnight.

October Flakes

Even though it won't stick, we might be seeing our first flakes of the season this morning! It's way ahead of schedule, especially considering how warm we've been leading up to this current cold shot, but for snow lovers like me... we'll take it!

Second Big Front Brings FALL

It was about 8 days after our first big weather-changing front, we got a second one:

This one wasn't quite as gusty, but we did get even more much needed rain, and our very first temperature below freezing since April 4th! Freeze Advisories were out Wednesday night in to Thursday morning, and growing season ended as we reached 29.3­­° at my house Thursday morning.

We'll have another front sweep through tonight in to tomorrow which I'm going to go ahead and classify as our third of four season-changing fronts. One more and I think we'll be in full on fall and winter mode. That's when you'll see posts on this site ramp up!

The FROPA

I've probably posted this a bunch, but I always feel like we need 3-4 strong cold fronts to clear the area before we can get in to a winter-like pattern. Well, today was the first one. Finally. It's probably a couple weeks later than expected.

Above is timelapse from my roof cam. Ignore the watermark at the bottom with weather stats, apparently that wasn't working at the time. The most noticeable thing is how the camera began to bounce around after the rain stopped. 

Within 15 minutes the temperature dropped 10 degrees and the winds were howling at 30-40mph. 

With a high in the 50s tomorrow, this will be the first time since the beginning of September it'll actually feel like fall!

Ending the Mini-Drought, Still No "Fall"

On Thursday we ended our 20 day dry spell here in Columbus with a little under half an inch on average across the area. Then yesterday that amount was crushed with about 1.5" across Central Ohio thanks to the remnants of Hurricane Nate and a trough just north of the area that run out all of that tropical moisture.

The lawns needed it, but what little foliage we had didn't. Lots of leaves came down, even without changing colors. It'll be a pretty ugly autumn here in Central Ohio.

So, once again, where IS fall? We're still above normal for at least the next week, with highs in the 70s and 80s. But even if we look 8-14 days out, the CPC still has us well above average for the period:

Past this period I feel like we'll finally fall in to a period of storminess, with troughs plowing down from Canada weekly through the end of the month and in to November. Still, nothing looks like a true cool down in the mid range.

So until then, keep the short sleeves out!

So, Where's Fall?

For anyone who has followed me from my Wunderground Blog days until now, you'll notice there's a definite down tick in posts around summertime. It's not that I don't like the summer, it's just that... it's boring. Most days are warm, little forcing to push instability in to thunderstorms here in Ohio, and it's generally just a dead period for interesting weather.

I have an obvious bias toward winter weather, but I also love storms too. We don't get those in the summer. Instead, those are reserved for spring and fall. Well, we hit meteorological fall about 26 days ago here in Central Ohio, and since then there still hasn't been much to write about. We've seen six days of rain, none with storms, and a backwards temperature trend that has many, even heat lovers, longing for cooler temps and falling leaves.

The first couple days of September struggled just to hit 60°! It felt great and some trees started to respond with quick changes in color. I had many people ask me, "is this it? Did we turn a page on the calendar and just like that... fall?" No, unfortunately, I had to let everyone know this would rebound. And it sure did. It gradually warmed to where it is today, looking at our 6th straight day of 90° heat. Yuck. Before September we had three 90° days all year. Yesterday was also our second warmest day of the year at my house (91.9°).

So here's some good news. Tomorrow is our last hot day for a little bit. A cold front that's been stalled in the middle of the country for some time will finally move east, followed by a reinforcing shot. That should give us some comfortable low 70s and high 60s temps for a few days.

But just a few.

After some up and down next week, we'll settle in to another warm pattern for the second week in October with a massive ridge taking up most of the US:

This means it's going to be a very slow start to the cold weather season. In fact the pattern doesn't lend to any major cool downs in the next 16 days. That's pretty unheard of. While we saw a couple 80° days last October, we never saw long stretches like this. Those were usually in response to the upwelling of warm air ahead of a cold front. This is a block. Period.

I usually like to see 3-4 big storm systems push across the country before we settle in our winter pattern, with the arctic jet finally dropping far enough south to give us our final cool down. We haven't even seen one of these storms. 

Before you panic, this says nothing about the upcoming winter. I have a pretty good confidence early on that we could see cold and snow this winter, unlike the past few.

I'll be posting more frequently now that we're heading in to the cooler months!

Irma

Over the past couple weeks the US has now been slammed with two cat 4 hurricanes, Harvey and Irma. Harvey's lasting impact will be the historic flooding caused it Houston when the storm became stationary. While many large cities will come away with scars from Irma, I believe this storm should be remembered for the devastation it caused in the Florida Keys.

My wife and I visited the Keys last year for the first time and it became an instant favorite of mine. The islands that make up this area are some of the most beautiful in the world. Of course I had to take my drone with me to see some of the sights and the Keys did not disappoint.

Duck Key, FL

Few reports have come out of Islamorada, the town where we stayed. Many storm chasers who rode the storm out in Key West and made their way back to main land have said the area is devastated. I can only hope their reports are exaggerated.

Starting tomorrow through Thursday we should see the effects of Irma's remnants pushing through Central Ohio. We won't see anything crazy, just a good soaking and maybe some small gusts.

Central Ohio Missed Out on the Eclipse

As we got closer and closer to the peak of totality here in the Columbus area, you just saw this area of clouds getting closer and knew... we were going to miss out on this once in a lifetime event. But even without a great view of the eclipse, we saw some things around here that were cool anyway.

First thing being the visible satellite. This was really cool to see the shadow of the moon create a brief night fall over the clouds:

The next thing was literally cool... the temperature drop as the sun became obstructed. As the NWS noted in a Twitter post, areas near the Ohio River where there were less clouds saw up to a 7-8 degree drop. I noticed more of a 3-4 degree drop in Canal Winchester due to the cloudiness. But you could definitely see the drop:

 Almost right as soon as the eclipse started (1:04pm) you notice that dive. Temps didn't even start to recover until a full 30 minutes after the peak.

So, it may not have been as breath taking as some of the spots in the path of totality, but a pretty nerdy event for us here in Central Ohio none the less! Now it's time to get ready for 2024.

Cloud Cover for the Eclipse?

In case you haven't heard from the news, social media, friends, family, the neighbor, or anywhere else... the eclipse is happening tomorrow. Here in Central Ohio we will not see totality, but we should see 85%-88% coverage depending on where you are. But will we even get to see the eclipse? Will there be any cloud cover?

For about the past week it's looked promising for us here in Central Ohio. A developing system to our west looks like it should hold off cloud cover until after the eclipse tomorrow. Here's a look at the NAM model of cloud cover depiction tomorrow afternoon around 2pm:

Indiana is not looking good. But luckily we should be mostly sunny tomorrow.

I don't have eclipse glasses or anything for tomorrow, I'm sure I'll see plenty of pictures online. I'm a little more interested in the effect it'll have on our temperature from 1-4pm tomorrow! I'll be sure to post the results from my weather station.

As The Fog Breaks

Last night saw a couple very localized showers dump on parts of Franklin County, which lead to some Friday morning fog. Even though we didn't get any rain here in Canal Winchester, we saw some of that fog. And it was a perfect chance to take the drone up for a look:

Fog video with my drone has been a fun challenge for me since I started flying last year, but this was by far my best video. I'd taken some decent pictures in the past, but usually the fog was very deep and I couldn't get high enough for some good views. This morning was perfect. The fog was just beginning to break when I sent the drone up, and by the time I reached 300ft, you could see the clearing to the east and the heavier, deeper fog to the west. It really was a beautiful morning, and if I didn't have to go to work I would have flown even longer.

This evening I got 1" of rain from a pretty heavy shower, so will I get the chance at more fog video tomorrow morning?

Goodbye Super Rainy July!

Today is the last day of July 2017, which will go down as one of the wettest months in Central Ohio's history. The rain that fell this month was locally heavy. So much so that there's almost a 4" difference in how much rain fell at my house and how much fell at the airport... a mere 12 mile difference.

If the NWS used the total for Canal Winchester, then this month would have been the wettest month in history for Columbus. The current record is 12.36" in July of 1992. As of now I have recorded 12.87" of rain. The airport has only picked up 8.55" of rain. I'm also at 31.82" for the year so far which would put us on pace for a top 10 wettest years.

This map is the most telling of how wet it's been, showing a good portion of Central Ohio was 200-300% of normal precip for the month!

Looking back at 1992 when we had our previous wettest month, the rest of the year was pretty dry. We ended up with a little over 38" of rain for the year and the rest of the months were at or below normal for precip. But just for fun I checked, and the winter of '92-'93 also had 30" of snow. So... there's that! Do not take that as a direct correlation to our wet month, just a fun observation.

Now our pattern is changing again to a cooler and drier August. Will that hold up?

LiveBlog: Serious Flood Threat for Central Ohio

LiveBlog: 11:02am
We're under a Flood Watch all day today, but here we are at 11:02am and I've already received 2.11" of rain at my house. Locations in northern Ohio have flood warnings as they've gotten over 3" already. If we're not even to noon and this is our accumulation for the day...

...then I'm afraid to see how the day ends.

For us here in Central Ohio, morning thunderstorms have not only had huge rainfall rates, but have continued to redevelop and train over the same areas. If this trend continues along and just south of the I-70 corridor, I expect to see flood warnings sooner than later.

UPDATE: 11:17am
Lets also not forget that we're already completely saturated from heavy rains over the past week. Here's the past 7 days of rainfall from the AHPS. Keep in mind, this does not include most of today's rainfall. I'm currently at 5.45" of rain in 7 days and counting:

UPDATE: 11:31am
Here's another fun stat: 13 days in to July and I have already recorded 7.18" of rain at my house. That's not only the most I've gotten in any month this year, but doubles almost every other month also.

UPDATE: 1:00pm
For a short time we had a Flash Flood Warning for areas along and south of I-70 in Franklin, Licking and Fairfield Counties. The NWS reported rainfall of 3"+ in two hours near Pickerington.

I'm at 2.92" for the day, which is as much as I got for the entire month of May and more than February. Just crazy totals.

It's felt like we've been seeing the back edge of this rain for a while, but storms just keep regenerating. At this point it's hard to say how much longer the rain will keep up east of I-71:

UPDATE: 2:03pm
Wow. The last storm just brought my daily total to 4.01" of rain. I don't recall ever measuring this much in a day.

UPDATE: 4:27pm
Here's a timelapse from my weather cam of the storm that put me over the 4" mark for the day, as it causes some brief road flooding near a neighborhood intersection:

Unfortunately even more storms have started to fire off towards the west and head this way. Just about any amount of rain over the next several hours will cause instant roafd flooding for just about anywhere in Central Ohio.

LiveBlog: Big Storm Potential for Central Ohio

LiveBlog: 10:50am
The SPC just upgraded our severe risk today to Enhanced and issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch all at once:

If these storms were a little further west, I'd start using the Derecho word to describe this potential setup. Instead I think we'll see them intensify as they enter our area. We have a lot of sunlight out ahead of these storms adding fuel to the fire, so for what feels like the first time in a very long time, our setup is actually favorable!

Mid level CAPE should soar over 2000 J/kg, and an uncapped environment should allow these cloud tops to soar too. That means expect some big hail potential and high winds as well. The SPC gives the highest probabilities to a high wind event for this, so by early afternoon I expect warnings to be extended out ahead of this cluster.

I'll update this blog as storms approach!
UPDATE: 1:52pm
Here come the storms, but without the punch we expected. No warnings in our area, and nothing more than a decent show of clouds and rain moving in:

Post Tropical Cindy Brings Even More Rain

Since my last post I have received 1.11"of rain, taking at least my lawn out of the danger territory for drought. But how about we add on to that?

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall along the Gulf Coast this morning and it's on a track northward that'll actually bring even more rain to us here in Central Ohio.

The NWS has a flood watch out for the entire area, highlighting the threat that the entire area should expect 1-2", but we could see much more in areas where these storms train.

While Cindy is still spinning over East Texas, all of the moisture was on the east side of this storm and is flowing in from the Gulf right toward our area:

Starting sometime this evening we should see just about 24 straight hours of rain and storms. Not only will the threat of drought be completely gone, but I feel pretty strongly that we'll see many area rivers and streams come over their banks.

Let me know what you see in your area and share pictures!

Dry Central Ohio

I haven't seen a drop of rain at my house in 13 days. That's taking its toll on landscaping and lawns, as everything's getting crunchy. Here's a look at rainfall for the past 7 days:

You'll notice a nice little hole in eastern Franklin and northern Fairfield Counties. Parts of the state, like over around Dayton and Cincinnati have seen 2-3" of rain recently. While that's nice for them, there's now part of southern Ohio that's in the Abnormally Dry range on the drought monitor:

The hope is this drought ends today, with rain forecasted all day. I'm actually sitting here looking at a sunny sky with an area of rain just to my west to start the day. The hope is we get a good soaking today. Yes, even though today is Father's Day, the best gift I could get is a wet lawn.

But, as TheHermit mentioned, we always seem to miss out on the rain, even when it's forecasted like today. Does today's soaking verify?

Central Ohio Heat Update

Sunday was supposed to be the first day of our 90 degree run and... well, we fell short. Substantially short, considering 90 was the forecast high. I only got 87.7° at my house, and the airport shows 89.1° (even though Wunderground reports it as 90°).

Another interesting thing to note yesterday was some cloudiness in the afternoon that helped keep things cooler, and also a lower dewpoint in the mid 60's.

Today? I doubt we stay in the 80's much longer. I've already hit 87.7° at my house, and with a dewpoint hovering around 70° it'll also feel worse than it did yesterday.

Overall I think the hot pattern will persist for the foreseeable future, but the 90's may be short lived.

UPDATE: Tuesday, 9:26am
We got to 91.8° yesterday at my house, finally breaking the 90° barrier. Yesterday afternoon and evening was hot and muggy. The overnight brought no relief with lows in the mid 70's and high humidity.

Relief is on the way though, as showers and thunderstorms should keep us below 90° today. Already this morning we have some slow moving soakers:

Again, these are the hit and miss variety, but should bring some much needed rain to some.

UPDATE: Wednesday, 3:23pm

I only hit 85.8° yesterday afternoon, abruptly ending this run of 90's we were supposed to be on. As I wrote yesterday, scattered storms were the reason for the lower temps. I actually said they would be hit and miss, and boy did I fall in to the miss category.

There were parts of Central Ohio under Flood Warnings yesterday, very near my house too, and I never received a drop. I'm still sitting on 0.30" for the month, while some places could be well over 3". 

First Heat Wave of the Season

Here comes the heat. I heard some co-workers grumbling about the 63 degree high we had on Wednesday. Well, I bet they will be wishing for those temps again by the time we get through several 90 degree days coming up.

As of now it looks like we could have three straight days in the 90's starting tomorrow. It looks like Wednesday could end the streak as storms move in.

So what's bringing this heat? This blocking high in the southeast:

Not only is this blocking the flow and sending storm systems north of us, but it's also pumping in that hot and humid air out of the south. By Tuesday, dewpoints could be in the low 70's. When you combine that with air temps of 90+, it'll make it feel nasty outside and bring the heat index up to the middle to upper 90's.

Hope everyone has their AC in working order.

Eventually that high will slide off the coast and allow enough of a break in the pattern to bring back afternoon thunderstorms. Which is good, because we could use the rain. I wouldn't say we're in drought territory quite yet, but with only 0.30" of rain this month, we could use it. If the storms are hit and miss Wednesday through Friday, those that miss could have some crunchy grass by the end of the week.

Prepare for the warmest weather of the year so far!

On The Move

Sorry the posts have been nonexistent the past few weeks. My wife and I decided to move again, this time we stayed in the same town (Canal Winchester), but just a different neighborhood. Turns out the area we moved to nearly five years ago wasn't... ah-hem... very safe.

So the past several weeks of my life have been spent dealing with the process of buying and selling a house at the same time, the move, and most importantly to me... getting the weather station back up and running! If you've noticed lately the Weather Underground widget on the right side of the page had an error. That's because, per the Wunderground policy, I had to abandoned my old PWS ID and create a new one, even though I only moved around three miles. So now the PWS is back online, but what really sucks is I'll need to go back through the MADIS certification to get my data out as an official NWS station.

Needless to say with everything going on, I haven't had a whole lot of time to write about the weather. It's a good thing nothing major has happened!

So what has happened lately? Well, Spring got put on hold for a couple weeks there at the beginning of May, so that was a lot of fun. We saw a couple mornings drop in to the 30s, but so far none below freezing that I've recorded since April 8th. Lets hope it stays that way.

Spring looks like it'll take another back seat this week as it gets skipped over for more summer-like weather. Wednesday we could get awful close to 90 degrees, or at least threaten it. Even though there's not much talk of it yet, I'd bet strongly on some pop up thunderstorms Wednesday. That chance gets a whole lot better Thursday and Friday as our heat producing ridge breaks down and we get a weaking cold front coming in from the west.

It's May, so we should be in the severe weather season. So far? Nothing much to write about.

Now Some April Snow

Sure, it was 75 degrees yesterday, but who's ready for some snow tonight? This isn't a joke, the backside of the cold front that blew through here this morning is bringing in some seriously cold air.

Don't trust snowfall accumulation maps you see from models on this one. First, the ground and roads are still really warm from several days well above freezing. We haven't been below freezing in 4 days, and haven't had sustained freezing temps since March 22-23. So while the atmosphere is going to support some snow tonight, I don't think the ground will hold it.

In fact, I don't think Central Ohio's surface temps will ever get below freezing over the next 24 hours, only 850mb temps will help us with snow. 

Expect rain to change over to snow sometime after dark tonight:

Spring is still that month of transition. Quite a transition here, from a tornado threat to snow in a day.

April 5th Severe Weather

UPDATE: 7:50pm
Here comes the storms in to Central Ohio. Half of our area got a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and now we have a couple warnings around here. So far no tornadoes, so just expect some gusts and small hail:

ORIGINAL POST:
The Southeast is getting in on the severe weather first thing this morning, but as the day progresses, I think we see a second and maybe even third area of risk setting up. I've highlighted the areas I think could see tornadoes late this evening on the 8pm HRRR simulated radar:

The southern area over east Tennessee and eastern Kentucky has the most favorable environment. High instability, high shear, it looks like a classic Spring tornadic setup. Further north in southern Indiana I think being that close to the low pressure center in the heat of the day, there's a better chance for individual supercells in the afternoon.

The reason I have Central Ohio highlighted is because all of these storms in southern Indiana will eventually make their way in to our area in the overnight. I think they weaken with the loss of daytime heating, but they don't die.

I think by 10pm we will end up seeing a quasi-linear squall move in to our area. By then the severe chances will have lessened, but they're not zero.

I think we have a 50% chance of a Tornado Watch today, probably issued late this afternoon through the overnight. However I'm not very high on this being a huge tornado outbreak for Central Ohio. Still, something to watch.

BONUS WEATHER:
What if I told you we actually weren't done with snow? Yeah, I know, I just wrote this whole post the other day about winter officially being over. But right now we're looking at a chance the backside of this potent low could drop a couple inches in our area.

I'll post about this tomorrow, once the severe threat has passed!

Strong Storms Possible Tomorrow

Now that we're getting in to a more Spring-like feel outside, it's time we start seeing more Spring-like storms. Tomorrow evening brings a pretty good chance of that.

A low pressure passing just west of us will definitively bring enough lift in the atmosphere, with a 110knot jet aloft providing plenty of spin. Models for tomorrow afternoon look pretty fierce with strong helicity spinning around the 993mb low:

I think the only reason we may not see the intense storms that other parts of the country may see is because of timing.

By the time the low pressure gets in to Indiana and can bring enough lift to the atmosphere, the sun should be going down and CAPE values won't be allowed to grow at all. As of now the SPC has the Enhanced Risk limited to southwest Ohio and southern Indiana:

A larger moderate risk exists in the Southeast because of the instability they'll be afforded with the afternoon sun. But I wouldn't count out a second moderate risk being targeted in southern Indiana, northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio sometime tomorrow.

This is the first time this season we've had a setup with a low pressure passing so close to the area. Setups like these usually lend themselves to discrete supercells, and I feel like there's a chance we could see some just southwest of the area tomorrow.

I'll write more tomorrow as this event happens.