White Christmas: It'll Be Close

We haven't had a white Christmas here in Central Ohio in 7 years. In that time, Christmas Days have been memorably unmemorable in the weather department. For travel that's a great thing. Everyone's getting to their destinations locally with minimal interruptions over the past several years. But for me, I'd rather we get a little of the white stuff on the ground, even if it occurs days before. As long as we wake up with at least an inch on the ground Christmas morning, it's considered a success.

So if you've read #WxTwitter any lately, or even listening in to TV personalities, there seems to be some hype for the upcoming 7-10 days. And with good reason!

After a rather active pattern over the past week, we've hit a lull lately. In fact, we're hitting a stretch of 4-5 days where we should go progressively above average for temps. This is all leading up to the aforementioned hype near the holiday weekend.

Looking toward next Saturday, a very sharp temperature anomoly contrast across the country presents itself. That's because an insanely strong arctic blast will come down out of Canada, with a low pressure developinng somewhere along the southern Plains and making its way northeastward. The question would be... where?

If anyone tells you they know exactly where this system will develop and track, they're making it up as they go. Models are honing in on a consensus, but this is anything but a sure thing. The temp anomoly map is the Euro from December 23rd, and while it shows a good depiction of where the warm air should rush out ahead of the system, there's still not certainty about anything after that.

The next map I'm going to show you is from the day after Christmas. It looks like the cold air has deepened over the midwest, but hasn't moved an awful lot. That's because as of now, it looks like the first system will move north and get caught back up in Canada, leaving another system the chance to develop on the tail end of the first front:

So if things play out the way they're looking now, this will be a multi-day event. Will it be rain or snow for us? Will we get a White Christmas or a cold and rainy one? I think it's way too soon to say for sure, but I'll definitely be following it closely. Keep checking back for more updates on the progress of the models and forecasting.

And for people like me... keep your fingers crossed this thing trends colder and further east!