So, Where's Fall?

For anyone who has followed me from my Wunderground Blog days until now, you'll notice there's a definite down tick in posts around summertime. It's not that I don't like the summer, it's just that... it's boring. Most days are warm, little forcing to push instability in to thunderstorms here in Ohio, and it's generally just a dead period for interesting weather.

I have an obvious bias toward winter weather, but I also love storms too. We don't get those in the summer. Instead, those are reserved for spring and fall. Well, we hit meteorological fall about 26 days ago here in Central Ohio, and since then there still hasn't been much to write about. We've seen six days of rain, none with storms, and a backwards temperature trend that has many, even heat lovers, longing for cooler temps and falling leaves.

The first couple days of September struggled just to hit 60°! It felt great and some trees started to respond with quick changes in color. I had many people ask me, "is this it? Did we turn a page on the calendar and just like that... fall?" No, unfortunately, I had to let everyone know this would rebound. And it sure did. It gradually warmed to where it is today, looking at our 6th straight day of 90° heat. Yuck. Before September we had three 90° days all year. Yesterday was also our second warmest day of the year at my house (91.9°).

So here's some good news. Tomorrow is our last hot day for a little bit. A cold front that's been stalled in the middle of the country for some time will finally move east, followed by a reinforcing shot. That should give us some comfortable low 70s and high 60s temps for a few days.

But just a few.

After some up and down next week, we'll settle in to another warm pattern for the second week in October with a massive ridge taking up most of the US:

This means it's going to be a very slow start to the cold weather season. In fact the pattern doesn't lend to any major cool downs in the next 16 days. That's pretty unheard of. While we saw a couple 80° days last October, we never saw long stretches like this. Those were usually in response to the upwelling of warm air ahead of a cold front. This is a block. Period.

I usually like to see 3-4 big storm systems push across the country before we settle in our winter pattern, with the arctic jet finally dropping far enough south to give us our final cool down. We haven't even seen one of these storms. 

Before you panic, this says nothing about the upcoming winter. I have a pretty good confidence early on that we could see cold and snow this winter, unlike the past few.

I'll be posting more frequently now that we're heading in to the cooler months!