White Christmas: Chances Increase for Light Snow

As time has allowed models to come in to better agreement on storm setups, I don't think we have a chance at a major winter storm for Christmas this year. But I don't think we can completely rule out some flakes flying.

If you remember my last post, I said there would be a major southern low that warmed things up around here before we came crashing down. Then I said another storm would approach. It's that second storm that at this time appears to be much weaker in nature than originally thought.

Let's start with the first system, which will enter our area Friday night and bring rain on Saturday:

 This is from the Euro, and it shows more of an eastward track, instead of northeast. That matters, because the GFS doesn't go this route. With the northeastward track we would have precip around longer, so when the cold air crashes in, we could see snow changeover. The GFS I think overdoes this a little with 3-5" of snow by Christmas Eve day in northwest Ohio. The Euro shows a brief changeover in southeast Ohio as it exits.

So placement and direction is everything.

On the other hand, the GFS doesn't even recognize the second system that the Euro picks up on, which is what could bring light snow showers Christmas Day:

I'm not at the point where I trust the GFS and its snow statement from Saturday afternoon, so I'm sticking with the Euro on this one. I think we see some festive flakes Sunday night in to Monday, but accumulations should stay light. There's still a chance this shortwave Christmas Day is more potent than models think right now and we get an over achieving system, but I wouldn't count on it.

As of now, expect a warm and wet Friday in to Saturday, a sharp cool down, and snow showers in to the holiday.