A couple days ago this incoming clipper seemed like it may bring more snow than the Saturday one we had. I was thinking this one may pack a bigger punch, bringing possibly 2+". Well, this storm will be more powerful, as it begins to bomb out as it heads toward the coast and brings gusty winds tomorrow in to Wednesday morning. But as you'll see below, an area I thought would have more moisture is pretty empty on the latest NAM simulated radar:
However, you'll notice behind the main push of the clipper an area of lake enhanced snow coming off of Lake Michigan. It takes a pretty strong flow off the lakes to bring bands this far south and east, but tomorrow may be one of the few times a year the environment will be just right.
If the original area had developed overnight tonight, I think we could be waking up to half an inch tomorrow. Instead we saw a Special Weather Statement from the NWS this afternoon highlighting the chance for some freezing drizzle in the morning. I think that chance is very slim. Instead, I think the threat will still be the chance for some light snow overnight, followed by the chance of some heavy snow squalls throughout the day and very gusty winds.
So how much accumulation could we have? It's hard to tell. It'll all depend on where the bands off of the lake setup. Look at this snowfall model showing huge local differences:
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