April 5th Severe Weather

UPDATE: 7:50pm
Here comes the storms in to Central Ohio. Half of our area got a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and now we have a couple warnings around here. So far no tornadoes, so just expect some gusts and small hail:

ORIGINAL POST:
The Southeast is getting in on the severe weather first thing this morning, but as the day progresses, I think we see a second and maybe even third area of risk setting up. I've highlighted the areas I think could see tornadoes late this evening on the 8pm HRRR simulated radar:

The southern area over east Tennessee and eastern Kentucky has the most favorable environment. High instability, high shear, it looks like a classic Spring tornadic setup. Further north in southern Indiana I think being that close to the low pressure center in the heat of the day, there's a better chance for individual supercells in the afternoon.

The reason I have Central Ohio highlighted is because all of these storms in southern Indiana will eventually make their way in to our area in the overnight. I think they weaken with the loss of daytime heating, but they don't die.

I think by 10pm we will end up seeing a quasi-linear squall move in to our area. By then the severe chances will have lessened, but they're not zero.

I think we have a 50% chance of a Tornado Watch today, probably issued late this afternoon through the overnight. However I'm not very high on this being a huge tornado outbreak for Central Ohio. Still, something to watch.

BONUS WEATHER:
What if I told you we actually weren't done with snow? Yeah, I know, I just wrote this whole post the other day about winter officially being over. But right now we're looking at a chance the backside of this potent low could drop a couple inches in our area.

I'll post about this tomorrow, once the severe threat has passed!