Strong Storms Possible Tomorrow

Now that we're getting in to a more Spring-like feel outside, it's time we start seeing more Spring-like storms. Tomorrow evening brings a pretty good chance of that.

A low pressure passing just west of us will definitively bring enough lift in the atmosphere, with a 110knot jet aloft providing plenty of spin. Models for tomorrow afternoon look pretty fierce with strong helicity spinning around the 993mb low:

I think the only reason we may not see the intense storms that other parts of the country may see is because of timing.

By the time the low pressure gets in to Indiana and can bring enough lift to the atmosphere, the sun should be going down and CAPE values won't be allowed to grow at all. As of now the SPC has the Enhanced Risk limited to southwest Ohio and southern Indiana:

A larger moderate risk exists in the Southeast because of the instability they'll be afforded with the afternoon sun. But I wouldn't count out a second moderate risk being targeted in southern Indiana, northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio sometime tomorrow.

This is the first time this season we've had a setup with a low pressure passing so close to the area. Setups like these usually lend themselves to discrete supercells, and I feel like there's a chance we could see some just southwest of the area tomorrow.

I'll write more tomorrow as this event happens.