NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory, mainly because of the threat of freezing rain tonight and tomorrow morning. This situation is made worse by those days of extremely cold temps leading up to tonight. Even though the environment is set up for a freezing rain event anyway, the ground is going to be very cold. We're going to see rain freeze instantly.
The latest NAM run shows precip starting around 4am Monday
This is a southern storm. I hate trying to forecast southern storms, they're just so hard to predict. But this seems like a pretty classic icing scenario to me. Warm air trying to win out over entrenched cold air almost always ends with some ice.
The unknown is how much ice and how long it lasts, but I can bet tomorrow morning's commute will be awful. Try to stay off the roads until this thing passes.
Honest question here -- why is it that during the past almost decade that no southern storm can ever bring snow? Prior to 2010, it seemed like there was one or two storms every winter that came up from the Gulf and dumped several inches on us. Maybe once every two or three winters we'd get a storm that would dump 10+ inches on us. Now, no more. Anything out of the Gulf that goes over us is always rain that may or may not freeze.
ReplyDeleteThe really odd thing though, is that if something out of the Gulf goes way to the south over us, like over southern Kentucky, Tennessee, or even Atlanta, they will sometimes get a decent snow.
It seems to me the only way for us to see any snowfall is from an Alberta Clipper, which tops out around 5" or so.
Would you agree with what I'm saying? And if so, do you have any idea as to why it has changed lately so that anything from the south comes as rain, even if it's directly on the heels of the coldest two straight weeks in a few decades? It it ocean temperatures? I know the offshore Atlantic has ticked up a degree or two over the last decade or so, presumably due to one of those multidecadal oscillations. Historically have we ever went through a similar time period where everything out of the south was wet, or is that not something people even keep track of?
--TheHermit43130
I really think it's the pattern we've been handed for several winters now. Southern systems by their nature are going to bring warm air up from the Gulf, like we're seeing with tomorrow's storm bringing ice. Our southern storms that have traditionally brought the big snowfalls are what we call "ridge runners." They usually move from the western Tennessee valley and ride right along the Appalacian range. We just haven't had one in a while. Especially with a flat pattern like we're about to transition in to, we probably won't see one anytime soon. Without that type of storm, unfortunately I feel like we'll be stuck with these 2-3" storms.
DeleteHermit question game Strong AF...
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