FINAL CALL: Weekend Storm

Temperatures today have been in the mid 50s to lower 60s. That's important when it comes to tomorrow's storm. Why? We have a potent low that'll be bumping up against warm air, and the clashing of air masses should help enhance this storm more than maybe some would originally think.

But will we get the 20" some people posted from computer models earlier in the week? No, absolutely not. But this should be our first real winter storm of the season. Sorry clippers, I don't count you.

Weather offices west and northeast of us have issues Winter Storm Warnings, but as of now we're just at a Winter Weather Advisory. Which means, this streak continues:

That's right, places like Jacksonville, FL have had a winter storm more recently than us. While my hopes for this storm have waned, I don't think it'll be a dud. Like I said, it'll be the first real winter storm of the season, and for most I think this will also be the biggest snow total of the season.

If you go back to my original post about this system, I pointed at a potential "ridge runner," and even though the Euro is really trying to flatten this thing out and send it east and south of us, I feel pretty confident we should have that elusive southern low storm we've missed for quite a while.

So then why don't we have Warnings? Why aren't we talking double digit snowfall totals? That's because this storm has picked up a lot of speed as it ejects out of the plains. It'll be in and out of our area a lot quicker than originally expected, meaning totals will be lower. Some models I saw earlier in the week showed a much deeper low beginning to spin backside snow as it passes to our east. Now it won't deepen until east of Buffalo, which means we won't even see a backside wrap around like a classic ridge runner would bring.

Instead, just your plain ol' change-over as cold air rushes in behind the front. That's boring.

The hard part to nail down when it comes to totals is the ice. Cold air is going to pour in under the existing warm air, allowing that change to freezing rain for a while, but how long? An hour? Three hours? Longer? I feel like the quick moving low will pull the warm air out with it pretty quick, meaning we may have a little while with moderate freezing rain before a change to huge flakes and quick snow accumulations.

This is a tough one to forecast, but here's my guess for Friday in to Saturday:

Southeast will see more snow and less ice, because that colder air will be advancing in to the area quicker down there, allowing less ice. To the northwest they're just a little too far fromthe center of the low to get the heavier precip.

I could look like a fool in 48 hours if King Euro has his way, but I just don't buy the East Coast scenario for this one. If anything, a ridge runner may bring us more than my forecasted amount as long as we don't have any more acceleration of this storm. But for now I'm playing it safe. A nice 3-5" swath across Central Ohio should do it.