Groundhog Day Storm: One Week Out

We've had a relatively eventful past week, considering there weren't any major winter storms. Sunday night we had thunderstorms with high winds. By Tuesday we got a dusting of snow. And then we finished the week off with mid 50's and sun. This roller coaster is actually more typical of mid winter here in Central Ohio. These deep freezes we've had usually only happen a few days each winter. Instead, we've probably seen two weeks of arctic air so far.

I usually don't start talking about storms 7 day out, but the media has gotten ahold of the potential for a big storm that transitions in to an east coast bomb. Even worse is two straight days of model consensus that really set off some alarms.

I guess I have to be the voice of reason?

Let me just show you February 2nd according to the Euro:

This is looking like a southern low without a "hook" component to it. That means less of the backside snow for us, as the hook usually comes as it wraps north after passing the Ohio Valley. This is looking more of a beeline from the south to New England.

This depiction is different than what the past few model runs have shown, a little further south and a little less impact for Central Ohio. Again... it's 7 days out, don't take this as the gospel yet.

But the pattern does encourage the southern low to develop and move northeast. Below you can see two high pressure systems in the Upper Midwest and the Atlantic squeezing the potential low right between:

I don't think there's much question about if a low develops, it's where and when.

Listen, anyone that's followed weather closely in Central Ohio for the past decade has seen dozens of these southern lows come and go. Some hit. Most miss. Especially lately. Until I'm proven otherwise, I'm always going to trend further south on all of these southern storms. Even a week out I'm still going to support a more southern solution, at least for the time being.

The purpose of this post wasn't to give you false hope or shoot down a potential storm, but to inform. We're going to have the chance of a storm next weekend and it could bring accumulating snow. Until we get closer, I think it's irresponsible to promise anything else.

I'll definitely be posting more frequently to update you about this storm.