Why Day 7 Is Stupid

I admit. I caved to the media pressure that came from those day 7 snow maps for a potential Groundhog Day storm to hit the Ohio Valley. I didn't buy the hype, but I did do something I rarely do. I looked ahead. And I allowed the wishcasting to make me see something that wasn't really there.

It's not that the infamous Groundhog's Day missed us. It's that it never fully developed. At all.

I had an interest in this storm for travel reasons. I'm leaving tomorrow evening for a long weekend trip to NYC, and when I saw a 20" snowfall map for that area I got concerned. But that never developed, and other than a couple inches in the Pennsylvania mountains, there won't be more than a dusting between here and the big city.

So tomorrow's precip? Just some light showers. When would be our next chance? I think the next thing to look at is this storm on Sunday:

This is a few days out now, but it'll be something to watch. I think this has a decent chance of pulling a little further north than models suggest, which would put us in a good spot for moderate snow along and south of I-70.

That's not a model talking, either. That's using a gut, based on what I've seen happen before. We're getting in to a very active pattern, and I see a storm like this curving north more when it's following another system.

I'll try and update this on Saturday!