We're almost in to 2019 and we still haven't had an actual snow event. The handful of small dustings we had back in November really doesn't add up to me the way the airport snow readings say they do. As far as I'm concerned, we're sitting at 0" of snow for the year. A dusting isn't enough to get me excited.
Now we're going to end December with absolutely no snow. Over the past 20 years, December hasn't really defined our season. Some would think a snowless December would be bad, but the records seem to show there's no correlation.
December 2011
We had only 0.5", ended the season with only 12.2"
December 2012
Got 14.9" and ended the season above average at 41.2"
December 2013
Had 12.7" and ended the season with our highest total ever, 56.4"
December 2014 and 2015
Here are the outliers. Both of those Decembers saw no snow. 2014 ended with an above average 33.4", while 2015 was below average at 17.1". Those two years could be what people would consider the proof that December has no tie to the whole season.
December 2016
Maybe this is also another argument that December doesn't set the season. We had 5.4" of snow, right at our average for the month. We ended up with only another 3.9" of snow to end the season a 9.4".
So what does that mean for the rest of the season? Who knows. All I know is we're still looking snowless for the next 10 days. Happy New Year?
Sunday, December 30, 2018
Monday, December 24, 2018
Maybe a Sorta White Christmas
It's Christmas Eve and all I'm wondering is if the little bit of snow showers I see in the forecast for tomorrow will be enough to quench the thirst of anyone hoping for a White Christmas. The definition of a White Christmas is 1" or more on the ground Christmas Morning. I'm assuming that means by sunrise. Well, by the book, we will not have a White Christmas this year.
In my post last weekend I was hoping for some kind of system to develop and drop down out of Canada around the Christmas Eve time frame, just based on the overall flow of things after our soaker passed through on Friday. That didn't happen. Instead we're getting a weak disturbance out of the Plains that will bring us a chance of light snow showers tomorrow afternoon:
A clipper-like system would have had a little more juice to it and a reinforcing shot of cold air. This one is coming in flat, so there won't be much forcing to be had, meaning not a great chance of the showers over performing.
That's the key phrase if we want any shot at all of getting snow early Christmas morning: over performing. We would need this disturbance to speed up and intensify. By the time it gets here around noon tomorrow, it will have lost a lot of its moisture as it moves in to cooler, drier air.
If you're rooting for snow on the ground Christmas Morning while you're opening your presents, root for this thing to speed up.
Merry Christmas!
In my post last weekend I was hoping for some kind of system to develop and drop down out of Canada around the Christmas Eve time frame, just based on the overall flow of things after our soaker passed through on Friday. That didn't happen. Instead we're getting a weak disturbance out of the Plains that will bring us a chance of light snow showers tomorrow afternoon:
A clipper-like system would have had a little more juice to it and a reinforcing shot of cold air. This one is coming in flat, so there won't be much forcing to be had, meaning not a great chance of the showers over performing.
That's the key phrase if we want any shot at all of getting snow early Christmas morning: over performing. We would need this disturbance to speed up and intensify. By the time it gets here around noon tomorrow, it will have lost a lot of its moisture as it moves in to cooler, drier air.
If you're rooting for snow on the ground Christmas Morning while you're opening your presents, root for this thing to speed up.
Merry Christmas!
Saturday, December 15, 2018
When Will It Snow?
Wow, a month between posts? That usually means things got pretty boring. In fact, it did. After a couple light snows in November it looked like we were setting up for a snowy December.
Wrong.
November saw a respectable 2.1" of snow in Columbus, while December really hasn't had any. The airport has reported 0.4" but I'd love to know how they came up with that. We had a streak to start the month in the 50s and 60s, followed by a cool but dry spell. Now here were are in the middle, mild but lots of rain today.
So the question isn't really will it snow... but WHEN will it snow? We know it's coming eventually, but could our first major snow of the season happen in time for a White Christmas?
Lets look forward to Friday, December 21st, when the parade of rain-making southern lows continues. What will be different about this one is the cold air it'll usher in on the backside. So while the majority of the event will be a mild rain, as the low departs we could see a changeover to snow:
This doesn't give us our White Christmas, but it does set us up going in to the 24th-25th timerange for a possible clipper to develop and drop down in to our area:
This is from the end of the Euro run and doesn't actually show anything developed, but it's a long way off. After that low departs off the New England coast, the northwest flow rule will be in effect, so the potential will absolutely be there for a storm to develop.
Now it's just a waiting game. The players will be there, but will it all develop? I can't say we have an incredible shot at a White Christmas, but I feel like it's higher than normal.
I'll be posting a lot more leading up to Christmas.
Wrong.
November saw a respectable 2.1" of snow in Columbus, while December really hasn't had any. The airport has reported 0.4" but I'd love to know how they came up with that. We had a streak to start the month in the 50s and 60s, followed by a cool but dry spell. Now here were are in the middle, mild but lots of rain today.
So the question isn't really will it snow... but WHEN will it snow? We know it's coming eventually, but could our first major snow of the season happen in time for a White Christmas?
Lets look forward to Friday, December 21st, when the parade of rain-making southern lows continues. What will be different about this one is the cold air it'll usher in on the backside. So while the majority of the event will be a mild rain, as the low departs we could see a changeover to snow:
This doesn't give us our White Christmas, but it does set us up going in to the 24th-25th timerange for a possible clipper to develop and drop down in to our area:
This is from the end of the Euro run and doesn't actually show anything developed, but it's a long way off. After that low departs off the New England coast, the northwest flow rule will be in effect, so the potential will absolutely be there for a storm to develop.
Now it's just a waiting game. The players will be there, but will it all develop? I can't say we have an incredible shot at a White Christmas, but I feel like it's higher than normal.
I'll be posting a lot more leading up to Christmas.
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Round 2 - November 15th
We got a little more ice here in Central Ohio than I was anticipating last night, but nothing that truly stuck to the roads and caused major problems. Instead it was tree icing that caused most of our problems, with many tree branches snapping under the weight and pulling down power lines.
Weighted pine trees were a pretty common site:
Areas west were hit much harder. Sometime last night they were changed over to an Ice Storm Warning, the first one issued in the Wilmington warning area since 2014. They were able to get just cold enough overnight that some of that moderate rain froze to the roads.
But now we're on the backside and the cold air is rushing in to higher levels of the atmosphere. That's why it's currently 34.5° where I am with wet snow beginning to fall. We're warmer than we were overnight, but the atmosphere is just right for snow to fall.
Most of Central Ohio should change over to primarily snow before sunset, and the back end of the upper low, shown above, should enhance snowfall sometime overnight.
I don't think we're looking at a huge event tonight, but half an inch isn't out of the question. Another issue tonight will be some of the refreezing of all that rain we got today. Between refreezing and a little snow, we may have another tricky morning of travel tomorrow. Take it slow!
Weighted pine trees were a pretty common site:
Areas west were hit much harder. Sometime last night they were changed over to an Ice Storm Warning, the first one issued in the Wilmington warning area since 2014. They were able to get just cold enough overnight that some of that moderate rain froze to the roads.
But now we're on the backside and the cold air is rushing in to higher levels of the atmosphere. That's why it's currently 34.5° where I am with wet snow beginning to fall. We're warmer than we were overnight, but the atmosphere is just right for snow to fall.
Most of Central Ohio should change over to primarily snow before sunset, and the back end of the upper low, shown above, should enhance snowfall sometime overnight.
I don't think we're looking at a huge event tonight, but half an inch isn't out of the question. Another issue tonight will be some of the refreezing of all that rain we got today. Between refreezing and a little snow, we may have another tricky morning of travel tomorrow. Take it slow!
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Winter Storm - November 15th
It's our first winter storm of the season here in Central Ohio:
Winter Weather Advisories reach from the Gulf Coast to Upstate New York with this system which promises to bring snow and ice to a large section of the eastern US. Let's see what we're dealing with tonight.
The Setup
We've got a double barrel southern low on our hands, but luckily not a very powerful one. The western low will move almost due north before transferring to the coast to amplify the eastern low. Before it dies off, our eastern low will do a good enough job pushing warm air up and over our cold air that has been entrenched here for several days.
It's a decent setup for some ice in the overnight hours, but the when and where are really hard to pin down for sure.
Prediction
I just don't see this playing out to be a storm to talk too much about. 24 hours ago it had my attention. It was looking like we could see some snow and a little ice. Now this is shifting towards a mostly ice event, and those almost never pan out around here. Here's why:
I don't think temps drop very low. Yes, we'll get to freezing, perhaps to 30° or 31° for a short time, but I think this surge of warm air aloft gets deep enough to influence surface temps. It's almost 4pm and we're still only at 31°, but I think we stay steady after the sun sets.We would need surfaces to get much cooler to really contribute to ice growth.
Snow almost seems out of the question. Everything is pointing to precip type falling as rain during the whole event. Perhaps early on, the first hour or so when precip is light, we could see snowflakes, but nothing accumulative. By sunrise temps will rise just enough above freezing that we'll eventually just be in a cold rain scenario.
It'll be tomorrow evening as the storm system moves out and the upper low barrels in from the west that we might see a changeover to snow, but even then it probably wouldn't be more than a dusting.
I officially say we get a light glaze on elevated surfaces by sunrise, roads stay primarily wet, and we may see a few school delays. This one will be a snoozer.
Winter Weather Advisories reach from the Gulf Coast to Upstate New York with this system which promises to bring snow and ice to a large section of the eastern US. Let's see what we're dealing with tonight.
The Setup
We've got a double barrel southern low on our hands, but luckily not a very powerful one. The western low will move almost due north before transferring to the coast to amplify the eastern low. Before it dies off, our eastern low will do a good enough job pushing warm air up and over our cold air that has been entrenched here for several days.
It's a decent setup for some ice in the overnight hours, but the when and where are really hard to pin down for sure.
Prediction
I just don't see this playing out to be a storm to talk too much about. 24 hours ago it had my attention. It was looking like we could see some snow and a little ice. Now this is shifting towards a mostly ice event, and those almost never pan out around here. Here's why:
I don't think temps drop very low. Yes, we'll get to freezing, perhaps to 30° or 31° for a short time, but I think this surge of warm air aloft gets deep enough to influence surface temps. It's almost 4pm and we're still only at 31°, but I think we stay steady after the sun sets.We would need surfaces to get much cooler to really contribute to ice growth.
Snow almost seems out of the question. Everything is pointing to precip type falling as rain during the whole event. Perhaps early on, the first hour or so when precip is light, we could see snowflakes, but nothing accumulative. By sunrise temps will rise just enough above freezing that we'll eventually just be in a cold rain scenario.
It'll be tomorrow evening as the storm system moves out and the upper low barrels in from the west that we might see a changeover to snow, but even then it probably wouldn't be more than a dusting.
I officially say we get a light glaze on elevated surfaces by sunrise, roads stay primarily wet, and we may see a few school delays. This one will be a snoozer.
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
First Look: Thursday Winter Storm
It's looking more and more like we might have our first legitimate winter storm coming in Wednesday night in to Thursday. I talked about this at the end of my last post, but with each new model run it's looking like this goes from a glancing blow to something a little more serious.
When the Euro starts showing those purple and oranges, that's cause for concern for something a little worse than a few flakes. This could be our first icing of the season, with a setup I can't remember seeing in quite a while. When we see southern lows, usually they ride up the Appalachians or northeast through the Ohio Valley. This one is taking an almost due north track before turning east, which will definitely be a challenge to forecast.
As of now it's the Euro that's a little more aggressive with the cold air in the lower levels, causing it to hint at an icing event. The GFS just wants to push this as an all warm system.
We're about 36 hours out on this thing, so pinpointing when and where would be pretty hard to say, but I think we could have a very messy commute Thursday morning.
Precip will work in to the area late Wednesday night. At this time I think temps will be below freezing, so it's just a matter of what we're working with in the layers of the atmosphere before I can say for sure if it'll be snow, sleet or freezing rain.
I think we may see Advisories posted sometime overnight going in to tomorrow in prep for this system. I'll go in depth tomorrow with my post. Winter begins!
When the Euro starts showing those purple and oranges, that's cause for concern for something a little worse than a few flakes. This could be our first icing of the season, with a setup I can't remember seeing in quite a while. When we see southern lows, usually they ride up the Appalachians or northeast through the Ohio Valley. This one is taking an almost due north track before turning east, which will definitely be a challenge to forecast.
As of now it's the Euro that's a little more aggressive with the cold air in the lower levels, causing it to hint at an icing event. The GFS just wants to push this as an all warm system.
We're about 36 hours out on this thing, so pinpointing when and where would be pretty hard to say, but I think we could have a very messy commute Thursday morning.
Precip will work in to the area late Wednesday night. At this time I think temps will be below freezing, so it's just a matter of what we're working with in the layers of the atmosphere before I can say for sure if it'll be snow, sleet or freezing rain.
I think we may see Advisories posted sometime overnight going in to tomorrow in prep for this system. I'll go in depth tomorrow with my post. Winter begins!
Monday, November 12, 2018
First Snow: DRY SLOTTED!
It's kind of a kick in the face that our first legitimate threat of snow this season will show us stuck in the dreaded dry slot. I've put off writing this entry all day because I wanted to see more runs of the high res models before deciding we're gonna be stuck between two areas of precip.
By 11pm tonight the HRRR looks like this:
What you can't really tell here is even when precip does work in to the area, we're going to be in an interesting situation with precip type. Surface temps should definitely be supportive of snow, but a layer aloft may cause some sleet and freezing drizzle to fall. Nothing catastrophic, but an ugly overnight for sure.
I don't think this is a notable first snow at all, but I decided to put together our first snow map of the season anyway:
There's a chance perhaps that the northwest could get as much as an inch, if that northern stream of precip dives just far enough south. It's even possible extreme southeastern Pickaway doesn't see any snow at all, as they may stay a hair above freezing.
While this isn't a measure-worthy event for the area, the timing could cause a slick morning commute.
We'll be looking ahead to a better shot of the wintry stuff later in the week.
By 11pm tonight the HRRR looks like this:
What you can't really tell here is even when precip does work in to the area, we're going to be in an interesting situation with precip type. Surface temps should definitely be supportive of snow, but a layer aloft may cause some sleet and freezing drizzle to fall. Nothing catastrophic, but an ugly overnight for sure.
I don't think this is a notable first snow at all, but I decided to put together our first snow map of the season anyway:
There's a chance perhaps that the northwest could get as much as an inch, if that northern stream of precip dives just far enough south. It's even possible extreme southeastern Pickaway doesn't see any snow at all, as they may stay a hair above freezing.
While this isn't a measure-worthy event for the area, the timing could cause a slick morning commute.
We'll be looking ahead to a better shot of the wintry stuff later in the week.
Sunday, November 11, 2018
Quick Look: First Snow
I just wanted to put something quick together talking about our potential for the first snow of the season Monday night in to Tuesday morning.
This is looking like our typical southern low, with us on the northern edge of precip here in Central Ohio:
Above is the Euro early Tuesday morning. This is a textbook I-71 split for the area, with a mix along the corridor, snow north of it and rain south. That's how the Euro has it playing out right now, but as we get more runs on the high res models I think we'll be able to determine specifics sometime tomorrow.
TIMING
I think this could be bad for the morning commute on Tuesday. Precip will start as rain right around rush hour Monday evening before changing over to snow sometime overnight. Snow will stop right around rush hour Tuesday morning, but waking up to a light coating of snow will really make the morning drive rough. The first snow always brings out the worst in drivers in Central Ohio for some reason.
I'll post tomorrow a more in depth look at how much snow and where it'll fall.
This is looking like our typical southern low, with us on the northern edge of precip here in Central Ohio:
Above is the Euro early Tuesday morning. This is a textbook I-71 split for the area, with a mix along the corridor, snow north of it and rain south. That's how the Euro has it playing out right now, but as we get more runs on the high res models I think we'll be able to determine specifics sometime tomorrow.
TIMING
I think this could be bad for the morning commute on Tuesday. Precip will start as rain right around rush hour Monday evening before changing over to snow sometime overnight. Snow will stop right around rush hour Tuesday morning, but waking up to a light coating of snow will really make the morning drive rough. The first snow always brings out the worst in drivers in Central Ohio for some reason.
I'll post tomorrow a more in depth look at how much snow and where it'll fall.
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Busy Week of Multiple Storm Systems
Halloween ended up being better than expected, with areas north and west of I-71 staying mostly dry for the evening, and only some light showers south and east. Last year we dealt with cold, this year rain. Maybe we'll have snow next year?
Ok, I would like it. The kids wouldn't.
Now that we're in to November, snow is fair game though, and we may have our first chance at flakes near the end of this week. First we have to get through a windy, possibly stormy, start to the week.
A cold front will try to pass through the area tonight, but instead will wash out and dissipate in Indiana. We'll see some showers overnight and in to tomorrow morning, but without the front clearing the area, temps should stay up tonight.
I believe this system directly influences the path of the next one. If this front is able to pass further east, it'll set up how far and strong the next system will be Monday in to Tuesday. If I would have written this entry a few days ago, I'd be telling you we will have an extremely dangerous storm moving in. But the models have really backed off on the intensity and instability with this storm.
The NAM still shows this could be a potent storm:
Most models have the low dropping to a sub 990mb by the time it crosses the Great Lakes, but previous runs had it going sub 980mb. So we may have dodged a bullet when it comes to the intensity. I still think it'll be gusty post-frontal passage on Tuesday, and we could see a healthy squall line Monday night in to early Tuesday morning, but the likelihood of that seems lower now. Areas south of the Ohio River probably have a better shot at severe weather.
Even with this being a huge storm system, temps won't really drop off that much after Tuesday. That is, until our next front passes through near the end of the week. The system itself isn't going to be all that powerful. It'll be more of a southern low, but it's just a result of the massive arctic air that'll be filtering down from Canada.
On Saturday, temps 20° below average will be centered over the Plains:
That northwesterly flow that brings in all the cold air will also setup our first lake effect of the season. That's when we could see some flakes flying next weekend.
I'm not going to go too in depth this far out, but expect another post as we get closer to next weekend. The cold is coming!
Ok, I would like it. The kids wouldn't.
Now that we're in to November, snow is fair game though, and we may have our first chance at flakes near the end of this week. First we have to get through a windy, possibly stormy, start to the week.
A cold front will try to pass through the area tonight, but instead will wash out and dissipate in Indiana. We'll see some showers overnight and in to tomorrow morning, but without the front clearing the area, temps should stay up tonight.
I believe this system directly influences the path of the next one. If this front is able to pass further east, it'll set up how far and strong the next system will be Monday in to Tuesday. If I would have written this entry a few days ago, I'd be telling you we will have an extremely dangerous storm moving in. But the models have really backed off on the intensity and instability with this storm.
The NAM still shows this could be a potent storm:
Even with this being a huge storm system, temps won't really drop off that much after Tuesday. That is, until our next front passes through near the end of the week. The system itself isn't going to be all that powerful. It'll be more of a southern low, but it's just a result of the massive arctic air that'll be filtering down from Canada.
On Saturday, temps 20° below average will be centered over the Plains:
That northwesterly flow that brings in all the cold air will also setup our first lake effect of the season. That's when we could see some flakes flying next weekend.
I'm not going to go too in depth this far out, but expect another post as we get closer to next weekend. The cold is coming!
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
Will Halloween Be A Rain-Out?
When I was a kid we didn't have to ask what night Trick Or Treating was. It was always Halloween night. We didn't even have a time range for going out, everyone just kind of knew and went out. By the time I was old enough to have a kid of my own I had to rely on the news because every community seemed to have a different night for beggars. Luckily this year I feel like most everyone settled on Halloween night here in Central Ohio. The problem with that? Well... it's gonna rain.
We've known for a few days we could have a high precipitation event this week, but it appears we're settling on a Wednesday through Friday timeframe now. The NWS already has a Flood Watch out for the entire area:
A front will quickly move in from the west tomorrow before hitting the brakes over the area and stalling out. Where it stalls out will determine whether we have a rain-out tomorrow night or not.
Right now there are two solutions for tomorrow evening, and neither solution looks like a 100% washout. But does the front stall directly over I-71, or move down more along the Ohio River? If it dives further south, we may have a completely rain free evening. If not? It's scattered showers, with heavier embedded cells possible:
The HRRR pictured favors the northern solution, which means it'll definitely rain... but how much and how constant? Earlier runs of the NAM had all of the rain south of us, but now the newest run matches back up with the HRRR. I'm leaving the southern solution out there as a possibility just because it's been shown before, and it could still happen. It all depends how far south and east this front pushes before becoming stationary.
Once it does stall, you see that slug of precip in Missouri in the model above? Expect a couple rounds of those through Wednesday night and Thursday before we finally get a push from a low that'll ride along the boundary and finally push this system out of here on Friday:
By Friday afternoon we could actually see some sun and a break in the rain for the whole weekend. A drastic change from what we'll see coming up. Expect 2-4" widespread with this system, with road and small stream flooding not just possible by likely.
It'll be a wet Halloween, but here's to hoping it isn't a total washout for us.
We've known for a few days we could have a high precipitation event this week, but it appears we're settling on a Wednesday through Friday timeframe now. The NWS already has a Flood Watch out for the entire area:
A front will quickly move in from the west tomorrow before hitting the brakes over the area and stalling out. Where it stalls out will determine whether we have a rain-out tomorrow night or not.
Right now there are two solutions for tomorrow evening, and neither solution looks like a 100% washout. But does the front stall directly over I-71, or move down more along the Ohio River? If it dives further south, we may have a completely rain free evening. If not? It's scattered showers, with heavier embedded cells possible:
The HRRR pictured favors the northern solution, which means it'll definitely rain... but how much and how constant? Earlier runs of the NAM had all of the rain south of us, but now the newest run matches back up with the HRRR. I'm leaving the southern solution out there as a possibility just because it's been shown before, and it could still happen. It all depends how far south and east this front pushes before becoming stationary.
Once it does stall, you see that slug of precip in Missouri in the model above? Expect a couple rounds of those through Wednesday night and Thursday before we finally get a push from a low that'll ride along the boundary and finally push this system out of here on Friday:
By Friday afternoon we could actually see some sun and a break in the rain for the whole weekend. A drastic change from what we'll see coming up. Expect 2-4" widespread with this system, with road and small stream flooding not just possible by likely.
It'll be a wet Halloween, but here's to hoping it isn't a total washout for us.
Friday, October 26, 2018
Weekend of Rain
Oh if only this were January. Then our wet weekend of storms would actually be a weekend of decent snows. Today and tomorrow we'll get hit with a double barrel low that becomes a coastal storm. Parts of northern New England will get their first decent snow of the season from this. If we saw this on the Euro in January, we'd be ready for snow:
Instead, get ready for a soggy evening tonight and some leftover showers tomorrow. Temps are going to be on a very slow climb from the low 40s Friday morning to near 50° by midnight. Come on. Just knock 20° off of that! Don't expect much temperature deviation on Saturday as our storm becomes a coastal low, we may stay at 50° all day.
And then by Sunday we'll see a quick hitting clipper system! Now you KNOW that would have brought us snow in January. Instead, more showers:
We're in a very active pattern for the next week or two, so our rain chances will be high, but as we get in to November we should eventually end this pattern with our first snow chances. I'm looking toward the very beginning on the second week of November for something slightly measurable.
Until then, get ready for wet and cold.
Instead, get ready for a soggy evening tonight and some leftover showers tomorrow. Temps are going to be on a very slow climb from the low 40s Friday morning to near 50° by midnight. Come on. Just knock 20° off of that! Don't expect much temperature deviation on Saturday as our storm becomes a coastal low, we may stay at 50° all day.
And then by Sunday we'll see a quick hitting clipper system! Now you KNOW that would have brought us snow in January. Instead, more showers:
We're in a very active pattern for the next week or two, so our rain chances will be high, but as we get in to November we should eventually end this pattern with our first snow chances. I'm looking toward the very beginning on the second week of November for something slightly measurable.
Until then, get ready for wet and cold.
Saturday, October 20, 2018
Deep In To Fall
Sorry for the brief hiatis. I had every intention to start writing about how we were finally in to fall and then Central Ohio had another idea. We had a couple more weeks of temps in the 70s and 80s. Not exactly ideal "Fall" weather.
I should still write about the weather, no matter how boring it is, so that's my fault. I just couldn't get in the mood to write another headline that says, "oh, sorry, fall is on hold, here's a high of 87."
But I'm back, and just in time for what I consider our third major cold front of Fall. You know my rule by now, four fronts usually gets us in to the wintry weather, and right on cue we have a shot at our first flurries with the frontal passage tonight:
Ok, it's not much, and it won't stick, but for snow lovers it's the day we wait for all year. The FIRST FLAKES! For everyone else, it's the day they dread all year.
We've already had our first freeze earlier this week, with all of Central Ohio dropping below 32. Now we're in a pattern where strong storms will be able to dive down out of Canada, in a clipper-like setup. High pressure followed by low pressure. Over and over for the extended range. But in the short term, through next week, we're looking at mostly sunny and cool.
Back to today and tonight, we will see our first high wind event of the season as a cold front blasts through and brings 40mph winds. Our whole area is under a Wind Advisory, and I think we could see wind gusts over 40mph as early as 3pm. Here's the HRRR 10m winds, which aren't very high above the ground:
Impacts
This shouldn't be a major wind event like we've seen in the past, but with a prolonged period of wind gusts above 40mph, we could see some isolated power outages. More likely we'll see some trees that are just barely beginning to turn color get stripped bare of those leaves. This could be pretty impactful for any color watchers out there. And you might want to make sure those Halloween decorations are tied down tight, or you might find them in your neighbor's tree tomorrow.
I'll be sure to update if we see any more significant impacts from this system, but otherwise expect another post next weekend!
I should still write about the weather, no matter how boring it is, so that's my fault. I just couldn't get in the mood to write another headline that says, "oh, sorry, fall is on hold, here's a high of 87."
But I'm back, and just in time for what I consider our third major cold front of Fall. You know my rule by now, four fronts usually gets us in to the wintry weather, and right on cue we have a shot at our first flurries with the frontal passage tonight:
Ok, it's not much, and it won't stick, but for snow lovers it's the day we wait for all year. The FIRST FLAKES! For everyone else, it's the day they dread all year.
We've already had our first freeze earlier this week, with all of Central Ohio dropping below 32. Now we're in a pattern where strong storms will be able to dive down out of Canada, in a clipper-like setup. High pressure followed by low pressure. Over and over for the extended range. But in the short term, through next week, we're looking at mostly sunny and cool.
Back to today and tonight, we will see our first high wind event of the season as a cold front blasts through and brings 40mph winds. Our whole area is under a Wind Advisory, and I think we could see wind gusts over 40mph as early as 3pm. Here's the HRRR 10m winds, which aren't very high above the ground:
Impacts
This shouldn't be a major wind event like we've seen in the past, but with a prolonged period of wind gusts above 40mph, we could see some isolated power outages. More likely we'll see some trees that are just barely beginning to turn color get stripped bare of those leaves. This could be pretty impactful for any color watchers out there. And you might want to make sure those Halloween decorations are tied down tight, or you might find them in your neighbor's tree tomorrow.
I'll be sure to update if we see any more significant impacts from this system, but otherwise expect another post next weekend!
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Here Comes Fall!
I didn't post The Weekly this week knowing I'd have something much more interesting to talk about later in the week.
FALL!
Today was our sixth 90° high of the month, a rarity for September around here. Luckily, that should be our last one of the year. Our dominating high pressure will finally be broken down by a cold front that'll not only move out the high, but bring us our first blast of cooler air.
For what seems like the past three months, high pressure has forced any storm systems up and over our area, meaning we haven't had any reprieve from the heat. Finally we will get a storm system that pushes all the way through the area and brings welcomed change:
If you look back at my blog over the years I always talk about there being at least 3-4 waves of cooler weather that swing through before we get snow. While it's way too early to talk about the S word, I will go ahead and say this is the first step down to weather cold enough to support snow.
Now that we're finally transitioning to fall, it's important to note that Fall is Central Ohio's second severe weather season. That being said, this is what predictive radar looks like for tomorrow evening:
This is a classic squall line setup, with cold air behind the front really sparking a line during the prime heating of the late afternoon. Right now the primary threat looks to be high wind with bowing segments and possible downbursts.
This will be a borderline severe day, probably more significant than we've seen in a couple months though. I think it'll definitely be an evening to keep an eye to the sky and listen for severe weather warnings. As of now I don't anticipate doing a LiveBlog tomorrow, but if conditions become more favorable for a widespread severe weather I may change my mind!
Either way, expect a much cooler weekend, with highs in the 60s-70s, followed by a work week that won't get much higher than the 70s either. Welcome, Fall. We missed you.
FALL!
Today was our sixth 90° high of the month, a rarity for September around here. Luckily, that should be our last one of the year. Our dominating high pressure will finally be broken down by a cold front that'll not only move out the high, but bring us our first blast of cooler air.
For what seems like the past three months, high pressure has forced any storm systems up and over our area, meaning we haven't had any reprieve from the heat. Finally we will get a storm system that pushes all the way through the area and brings welcomed change:
If you look back at my blog over the years I always talk about there being at least 3-4 waves of cooler weather that swing through before we get snow. While it's way too early to talk about the S word, I will go ahead and say this is the first step down to weather cold enough to support snow.
Now that we're finally transitioning to fall, it's important to note that Fall is Central Ohio's second severe weather season. That being said, this is what predictive radar looks like for tomorrow evening:
This is a classic squall line setup, with cold air behind the front really sparking a line during the prime heating of the late afternoon. Right now the primary threat looks to be high wind with bowing segments and possible downbursts.
This will be a borderline severe day, probably more significant than we've seen in a couple months though. I think it'll definitely be an evening to keep an eye to the sky and listen for severe weather warnings. As of now I don't anticipate doing a LiveBlog tomorrow, but if conditions become more favorable for a widespread severe weather I may change my mind!
Either way, expect a much cooler weekend, with highs in the 60s-70s, followed by a work week that won't get much higher than the 70s either. Welcome, Fall. We missed you.
Sunday, September 9, 2018
THE WEEKLY - September 9th - 15th
My last two posts had a lot of content, with lots to talk about thanks to Gordon and his remnants. But this week? Well luckily the weather will be kind of quiet here in Central Ohio.
Today is our "busiest" day as rain comes to an end across the area. a General 2-4" was seen across most places. We saw a few flood warnings near Cincinnati and the Ohio River, but for the most part we escaped flooding here in Central Ohio.
But after today? Snoozefest.
We'll start out with lingering showers on Monday and temps in the low 70s, and end up with sunny skies and mid 80s. You can see the progression as the week goes on, and we go from ugly fall like rain all the way back to summer in just a few days.
The only thing we can really keep an eye on now is Hurricane Florance.
This obviously will have an impact on the east coast with a landfall all but certain at this point, the above is the Euro ensembles. For a couple days now we've seen 90% of solutions hinting at a NC or SC landfall, where hurricane preps should be underway. This is important for us because there's an outside chance this could be our second tropical system to impact us in a week.
The Euro and GFS believe Florence makes its way to the Apps and turn away, but at six days away there's still time for this forecast to change. Here's where the Euro has Flo Satrday afternoon:
After tomorrow, this is our next possible chance of rain for the week. If that's our best shot, I feel pretty confident we'll have a decent looking week.
Today is our "busiest" day as rain comes to an end across the area. a General 2-4" was seen across most places. We saw a few flood warnings near Cincinnati and the Ohio River, but for the most part we escaped flooding here in Central Ohio.
But after today? Snoozefest.
We'll start out with lingering showers on Monday and temps in the low 70s, and end up with sunny skies and mid 80s. You can see the progression as the week goes on, and we go from ugly fall like rain all the way back to summer in just a few days.
The only thing we can really keep an eye on now is Hurricane Florance.
This obviously will have an impact on the east coast with a landfall all but certain at this point, the above is the Euro ensembles. For a couple days now we've seen 90% of solutions hinting at a NC or SC landfall, where hurricane preps should be underway. This is important for us because there's an outside chance this could be our second tropical system to impact us in a week.
The Euro and GFS believe Florence makes its way to the Apps and turn away, but at six days away there's still time for this forecast to change. Here's where the Euro has Flo Satrday afternoon:
After tomorrow, this is our next possible chance of rain for the week. If that's our best shot, I feel pretty confident we'll have a decent looking week.
Friday, September 7, 2018
FLOOD WATCH: Heavy Rain Expected This Weekend
The NWS has a Flood Watch extending from Arkansas to Ohio in anticipation for a weekend of heavy rain and possibly dangerous flooding. The setup I described in The Weekly looks to be more of a problem that I originally thought. Part of that is because of us being wedged between two strong high pressure systems, but the other part would be the remnant moisture from Gordon.
Here's a visual of what I just described:
Expect rain to start overnight tonight and not to let up until early Monday morning. That's about 48 straight hours of moderate to heavy rain. That'll be enough to bring most rivers to flood stage and just about every small creek and stream out of their banks. Low lying areas you're used to seeing flood... will flood.
While the heavy rain is inevitable, what isn't set in stone yet is where the heaviest rain will fall. Here's why:
The Initial Offering
Rain on Saturday morning through late Saturday night will be of the light to moderate variety. This is moisture getting squeezed out of the frontal boundary, well ahead of the main forcing with ex-Gordon. But at this point, the former tropical entity will be taking over the entire front and influencing its strength and trajectory through the Ohio Valley. At that point Saturday it'll be a matter of whether the norther High is strong enough to keep the boundary from advancing too far north as a warm front and taking the greatest moisture with it. This could mean the difference between an inch and a trace in the first 12 hours of our system.
What's Left of Gordon
The question will probably be answered with what happens with the initial offering. I believe if we see a northward advancing warm front Saturday, we'll see a more northern solution for the track of the low pressure remnants. The heaviest precip will fall north and east of the center, so a track in to northern Ohio may limit our heavy rain exposure here in Central Ohio. Because of that, and the uncertainty of either of these two parts, models range from 1"-6" for right in the Columbus area, with more north and less south.
I think if I had to settle on a solution right now, I'd say things will be much heavier to the north of us. Places like Delaware and Marysville may see a high end of 3", while places south of I-70 may get an inch, or even less the further south you go. There's a good chance that places around the Ohio River may come out of this thing with a quarter of an inch or less, as long as this trend continues to support a northern track.
But What About Football?
With a kickoff scheduled for 3:30pm in Ohio Stadium on Saturday, here's a look ahead at what it'll look like inside:
Sorry, there's really no way around it, there will be rain almost the entire game. Our only chance of it letting up is if there's a more northerly push of a warm front, possibly giving us a reprieve. Otherwise, bring your rain gear.
I'll be posting updates all weekend via Twitter, be sure to follow!
Here's a visual of what I just described:
Expect rain to start overnight tonight and not to let up until early Monday morning. That's about 48 straight hours of moderate to heavy rain. That'll be enough to bring most rivers to flood stage and just about every small creek and stream out of their banks. Low lying areas you're used to seeing flood... will flood.
While the heavy rain is inevitable, what isn't set in stone yet is where the heaviest rain will fall. Here's why:
The Initial Offering
Rain on Saturday morning through late Saturday night will be of the light to moderate variety. This is moisture getting squeezed out of the frontal boundary, well ahead of the main forcing with ex-Gordon. But at this point, the former tropical entity will be taking over the entire front and influencing its strength and trajectory through the Ohio Valley. At that point Saturday it'll be a matter of whether the norther High is strong enough to keep the boundary from advancing too far north as a warm front and taking the greatest moisture with it. This could mean the difference between an inch and a trace in the first 12 hours of our system.
What's Left of Gordon
The question will probably be answered with what happens with the initial offering. I believe if we see a northward advancing warm front Saturday, we'll see a more northern solution for the track of the low pressure remnants. The heaviest precip will fall north and east of the center, so a track in to northern Ohio may limit our heavy rain exposure here in Central Ohio. Because of that, and the uncertainty of either of these two parts, models range from 1"-6" for right in the Columbus area, with more north and less south.
I think if I had to settle on a solution right now, I'd say things will be much heavier to the north of us. Places like Delaware and Marysville may see a high end of 3", while places south of I-70 may get an inch, or even less the further south you go. There's a good chance that places around the Ohio River may come out of this thing with a quarter of an inch or less, as long as this trend continues to support a northern track.
But What About Football?
With a kickoff scheduled for 3:30pm in Ohio Stadium on Saturday, here's a look ahead at what it'll look like inside:
I'll be posting updates all weekend via Twitter, be sure to follow!
Monday, September 3, 2018
THE WEEKLY - September 2nd - 8th
As you might have noticed, I didn't post at all during August. I actually feel like even on my old Wunderground blog I rarely posted in August. Why? Because August is the most boring month of weather all year long. Want proof. It was another month without any real severe weather to talk about, it was above normal wamth, and slightly above normal rain. Every day was just about the same: hot, with a chance of pop up afternoon storms.
So why not start September off the exact same way! Man, I can't wait until Winter.
This week will be hot. Each day will be above normal until the weekend. Here's what we've got going:
This map may look like a little bit of a mess, but that's because there's a lot going on leading to the end of the week. Our main player for hot weather is that high pressure over the eastern seaboard that is just pumping the heat and humidity towards our area, and keeping cooler air at bay - for now.
Below that you'll notice newly formed Tropical Storm Gordon over the Keys. This could bring us rain as we head a few days out. But before we get to that point, we have to get that high pressure out of here. The first blue line you see is a weak boundry that will actually go up and over our area in the next couple days and won't put a dent in our heat. It's that second front further west with the arctic high that'll eventually put an end to the 90s for us, hopefully for good.
Gordon will get caught up in the tail end of the first front and feed moisture in our area by the end of the week as the second front pushes in to our area.
For the most part, expect highs in the 90s through Thursday, with that day being our best chance for showers. By Saturday, temps will actually drop in to the lower 80s and we should slowly start that progression towards Fall here in the next few weeks.
I don't know about you guys, but I'm ready to get rid of the heat and humidity and enjoy being outside for once! Here's to hoping next week's update brings us another stair step down towards seasonable temps.
So why not start September off the exact same way! Man, I can't wait until Winter.
This week will be hot. Each day will be above normal until the weekend. Here's what we've got going:
This map may look like a little bit of a mess, but that's because there's a lot going on leading to the end of the week. Our main player for hot weather is that high pressure over the eastern seaboard that is just pumping the heat and humidity towards our area, and keeping cooler air at bay - for now.
Below that you'll notice newly formed Tropical Storm Gordon over the Keys. This could bring us rain as we head a few days out. But before we get to that point, we have to get that high pressure out of here. The first blue line you see is a weak boundry that will actually go up and over our area in the next couple days and won't put a dent in our heat. It's that second front further west with the arctic high that'll eventually put an end to the 90s for us, hopefully for good.
Gordon will get caught up in the tail end of the first front and feed moisture in our area by the end of the week as the second front pushes in to our area.
For the most part, expect highs in the 90s through Thursday, with that day being our best chance for showers. By Saturday, temps will actually drop in to the lower 80s and we should slowly start that progression towards Fall here in the next few weeks.
I don't know about you guys, but I'm ready to get rid of the heat and humidity and enjoy being outside for once! Here's to hoping next week's update brings us another stair step down towards seasonable temps.
Sunday, July 29, 2018
THE WEEKLY - July 29 - August 4
It's been a while since I've posted THE WEEKLY for one reason only: it's been really boring. Since my last post I've seen 0.68" of rain at my house, and most of Central Ohio hasn't seen much more than an inch. The one exception, as you'll see below, is an area in northeastern Franklin County where heavy rain did fall recently. Other than that? It's been average to below average temperatures, and dry conditions.
The Columbus airport has reported 4.60" of rain this month and that seems excessive. Especially when you see that the rest of Franklin County has been well below that in the past two weeks.
This week will hopefully give us a little more rain to close out the month, and bring a little more green to the lawns.
The Euro total precip model doesn't think we'll get a ton, but the hope is that most of Central Ohio sees 0.5" to 1", with the possibility for more in some places further south:
Not only are we in a bit of a rain drought, but the summer months have put us in a Severe Weather drought as well. The last Severe Thunderstorm Watch we had was May 22nd in Franklin County. The last Tornado Watch was all the way back on April 3rd, although we did have a Tornado Warning in Columbus on May 15th. I don't see that drought coming to an end anytime soon. We're in between our severe seasons of Spring and Fall, so I doubt we see another watch for at least another month.
Later this week starts August, which is probably one of the most boring weather months of the year for us. For 2012-2017 we have seen exactly one Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Franklin County in the month of August. Even with us being in a more active pattern, I don't think that trend will change this year.
How much long until we start talking about snowfall maps?
 |
| AHPS Precipitation Analysis for past 14 days |
This week will hopefully give us a little more rain to close out the month, and bring a little more green to the lawns.
The Euro total precip model doesn't think we'll get a ton, but the hope is that most of Central Ohio sees 0.5" to 1", with the possibility for more in some places further south:
 |
| Euro rainfall model |
Later this week starts August, which is probably one of the most boring weather months of the year for us. For 2012-2017 we have seen exactly one Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Franklin County in the month of August. Even with us being in a more active pattern, I don't think that trend will change this year.
How much long until we start talking about snowfall maps?
Monday, July 9, 2018
THE WEEKLY - July 8-14
Believe it or not, my lawn is starting to get a little crunchy. Even though we just went through an impressive heat wave, we also just had our rainiest month of the year too. This past week we saw just a little over a tenth of an inch, which has definitely left neighborhood lawns on the dry side.
It looks like the next week won't offer much help for our lawns, as we only have rain the forecast one day, and that would be Tuesday:
Unlike with previous frontal boundries, we're actually set up for a favorable thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. The front will be moving in to Western and Central Ohio right around the peak of heating, probably 2-4pm. This won't be a high shear environment, so don't expect any tornadic cells.
After Tuesday? A brief cooldown to the low 80s followed by the heat again. Luckily I don't think we'll see any dewpoints touching 80 degrees like we did last week.
It's getting in to the dead of Summer, where we probably won't see much severe weather for the foreseeable future and warm temps throughout.
It looks like the next week won't offer much help for our lawns, as we only have rain the forecast one day, and that would be Tuesday:
Unlike with previous frontal boundries, we're actually set up for a favorable thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. The front will be moving in to Western and Central Ohio right around the peak of heating, probably 2-4pm. This won't be a high shear environment, so don't expect any tornadic cells.
After Tuesday? A brief cooldown to the low 80s followed by the heat again. Luckily I don't think we'll see any dewpoints touching 80 degrees like we did last week.
It's getting in to the dead of Summer, where we probably won't see much severe weather for the foreseeable future and warm temps throughout.
Sunday, July 1, 2018
THE WEEKLY - July 1-7
It's officially a heat wave here in Canal Winchester today, as we've had three straight days of 90° temperatures. Officially at CMH it's only two days as they only hit 89° on Friday, but I'm sure everyone around Columbus won't get too technical about it. It's hot. It's been hot. It'll be hot for a while.
We're going to be in the 90's all week. I still think the best chance we have of breaking the streak may be tomorrow as a weak boundary tries to spark showers and storms in the afternoon:
The cloudiness and showers could be our only chance to stay in the 80's until Friday when more showers and storms move in to end the heat wave.
I think July 4th will be our hottest day of the week. Right now it's looking like we'll be back in to the mid 90's with mid 70's for dewpoints. It'll be disgusting, and with it being a holiday I think we have a good chance at getting a heat advisory or even excessive heat warning that day.
But hold out, by next weekend there is relief. Not only will we drop back in to the mid to upper 80's, but lower humidity!!
The Euro thinks we could see Td in the 50's! That sounds amazing right now:
It's 6 days away, so until then... stay cool.
We're going to be in the 90's all week. I still think the best chance we have of breaking the streak may be tomorrow as a weak boundary tries to spark showers and storms in the afternoon:
I think July 4th will be our hottest day of the week. Right now it's looking like we'll be back in to the mid 90's with mid 70's for dewpoints. It'll be disgusting, and with it being a holiday I think we have a good chance at getting a heat advisory or even excessive heat warning that day.
But hold out, by next weekend there is relief. Not only will we drop back in to the mid to upper 80's, but lower humidity!!
The Euro thinks we could see Td in the 50's! That sounds amazing right now:
It's 6 days away, so until then... stay cool.
Saturday, June 30, 2018
Heat Wave Weekend Begins
It's 11:30am on Saturday and it's hot outside. This is not news, because we've known this heat was coming for a while. But just in case you don't want to go outside to experience it yourself, I'll give you a report. It's hot. There ya go.
We have a "ring of fire" ridge set up every summer at some point. The reason this one is getting so much publicity is because of its intensity. We haven't seen pure heat and humidity combined like this since 2012. If you remember that summer, it was hot and dry. It was a summer where lawns died and no one wanted to go outside.
We could have a remake of that.
For comparison, the warmest temperature I have recorded in Canal Winchester on my weather station since 2012 was 94.3° back on 7/18/13. Tomorrow's forecasted high temperature? 95°.
But lets not ignore today, where we should easily see the low 90s in Central Ohio. A couple of our northern counties are in the Heat Advisory along with Cincinnati:
We have a "ring of fire" ridge set up every summer at some point. The reason this one is getting so much publicity is because of its intensity. We haven't seen pure heat and humidity combined like this since 2012. If you remember that summer, it was hot and dry. It was a summer where lawns died and no one wanted to go outside.
We could have a remake of that.
For comparison, the warmest temperature I have recorded in Canal Winchester on my weather station since 2012 was 94.3° back on 7/18/13. Tomorrow's forecasted high temperature? 95°.
But lets not ignore today, where we should easily see the low 90s in Central Ohio. A couple of our northern counties are in the Heat Advisory along with Cincinnati:
Right now it looks like Monday could be our best shot at dropping below 90° for the entire week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms that day. What we won't see is triple digits at all during this heat wave. Why? Humidity. The dewpoints that are causing us to be even more miserable are actually a contributing factor to keeping our ambient temperature lower than it could get. Dry air can heat up more than moist air, so while our heat index will top out well over 100°, the actual temperature shouldn't be allowed to top out more than the mid 90's.
It could always be worse. July 6-7 2012, we topped out at 101° both days. It's going to be hot and uncomfortable, but for now I don't see this heat wave being nearly as bad as the Summer of 2012.
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Here Comes the Heat
Now that we have today's failed severe weather event out of the way, here comes the heat:
The NWS has started to put watches, warnings and advisories out in anticipation of the heat dome setting in. This will be a multi-day and possibly even a multi-week event. We already see the gray color in Cincinnati for an air quality alert tomorrow, which will probably get extended for a few more days.
It's been 6 years since we've hit 100° (June and July of 2012), but I think there's at least an outside chance we hit the century mark in the next 7-10 days.
Starting Friday, most models have us at 90° or above for the next six days:
A lot of people have been talking about how hot the GFS has been running the past few days, but regardless if we get that warm, I think the heat index easily hits 100° at least one of the next seven days.
This is just a primer for what we have to come. I'll be posting more in the coming days about what should be our first real heatwave in a while.
The NWS has started to put watches, warnings and advisories out in anticipation of the heat dome setting in. This will be a multi-day and possibly even a multi-week event. We already see the gray color in Cincinnati for an air quality alert tomorrow, which will probably get extended for a few more days.
It's been 6 years since we've hit 100° (June and July of 2012), but I think there's at least an outside chance we hit the century mark in the next 7-10 days.
Starting Friday, most models have us at 90° or above for the next six days:
A lot of people have been talking about how hot the GFS has been running the past few days, but regardless if we get that warm, I think the heat index easily hits 100° at least one of the next seven days.
This is just a primer for what we have to come. I'll be posting more in the coming days about what should be our first real heatwave in a while.
Sunday, June 24, 2018
THE WEEKLY - June 24 - 30
Last week THE WEEKLY talked about how that dome of high pressure moved east and allowed a stormy pattern to take over. Well guess what? High pressure is coming back, and it could be the first true heatwave of the season for most of the eastern US.
Before we get to the big heat and humidity we have to make our way through one more storm system that'll move through on Wednesday:
Before we get to the big heat and humidity we have to make our way through one more storm system that'll move through on Wednesday:
A storm system from the northern Plains will head our way, firing daytime storms along the cold front and also well out ahead. Above is the NAM simulated radar from Tuesday night where you can see a storm complex that develops out in the hot and humid warm sector. I think we'll deal with some overnight storms Tuesday before getting the frontal storms Wednesday. Already a couple days out I can imagine our Wednesday storms will depend on how quickly our atmosphere recovers from leftover morning storms.
After that, prepare for the torch:
We're about a week out from the start of the really hot weather, but from this temperature anomily map you can tell the heart of this heat wave will be centered over the Great Lakes. The 8-10 day time frame has all the making of extreme heat, one that I feel confident right now saying we will probably see triple digits then or soon after. We could be in high heat through the second week of July.
We haven't experienced a true heat wave like this in a while. Summer of 2012 is the last time I remember something this extreme setting up.
But keep in mind, it's still a week away, so this isn't set in stone. Many jumped the gun and thought our mini heat wave last week would be bigger, too. For right now I want to be conservative, like I usually am, but a hot a dry pattern seems more likely than not.
If storms become strong on Wednesday I'll post. Otherwise expect another post before next Sunday about our potential heat wave.
Sunday, June 17, 2018
THE WEEKLY - June 17-23
Welcome to THE WEEKLY where the name of the game will be... hot and unsettled weather. Actually I could probably write that post any week of the Summer, but this week will be textbook Summer.
First we have the high heat and humidity to get through the rest of Sunday and Monday. High pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley is holding strong for a couple more days, allowing building heat and occasional afternoon storms. So far today it's been nasty. Officially over at Rickenbacker we haven't hit a heat index over 100°, but here at home I've seen a heat index as high as 106°. That may be a bit aggressive considering the dewpoint I've been getting is 5° more than the local airports, but it still feels extremely humid out there.
That high pressure will be dissipating and moving offshore by Tuesday, allowing a change in the pattern:
After one more day of head indicies around and above 100° on Monday, we'll go through a long term pattern where we should see multiple storm systems diving in out of the Northern Plains. As of now the greatest chance for rain looks like next weekend as the biggest system moves in, but in the meantime starting Tuesday we should see a strong chance for showers and thunderstorms every afternoon. Heat will subside in to the low to mid 80s, but dewpoints will stay in the 70s every day except Thursday.
Prepare for the middle of Summer, just a few weeks early
First we have the high heat and humidity to get through the rest of Sunday and Monday. High pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley is holding strong for a couple more days, allowing building heat and occasional afternoon storms. So far today it's been nasty. Officially over at Rickenbacker we haven't hit a heat index over 100°, but here at home I've seen a heat index as high as 106°. That may be a bit aggressive considering the dewpoint I've been getting is 5° more than the local airports, but it still feels extremely humid out there.
That high pressure will be dissipating and moving offshore by Tuesday, allowing a change in the pattern:
After one more day of head indicies around and above 100° on Monday, we'll go through a long term pattern where we should see multiple storm systems diving in out of the Northern Plains. As of now the greatest chance for rain looks like next weekend as the biggest system moves in, but in the meantime starting Tuesday we should see a strong chance for showers and thunderstorms every afternoon. Heat will subside in to the low to mid 80s, but dewpoints will stay in the 70s every day except Thursday.
Prepare for the middle of Summer, just a few weeks early
Monday, May 28, 2018
THE WEEKLY: May 27 - June 2
Welcome to the Memorial Day week edition of THE WEEKLY where we're going to discuss that Gulf disturbance I talked about last week that has now become super hybrid weird looking Alberto.
Check out Subtropical Alberto, trying his hardest to be a big deal before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle later today:
Tons of dry air wrapping in, but it's still a heavy rain maker for the western Panhandle, and a possible severe threat for the eastern Panhandle and southern Georgia.
So why does this matter for us? Because the remnants of Alberto will roll unimpeded in to the Ohio Valley over the next couple days. As of now the heaviest rain appears to pass west of us, but that doesn't mean we're out of the woods. You notice all of the severe weather is displaced off to the east of the center right now? That'll still be the case once it moves in to Indiana and Illinois by Wednesday:
This will bring unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday, with the potential to spark more storms Thursday and Friday as well. This will move north and a little northwest until Wednesday evening when it hits a low pressure coming in from the Dakotas. That's where uncertainty lies. Some models want to retrograde the low back in to the Ohio Valley, while others send it east in to eastern Canada.
In the meantime we'll be in the low 90s for Memorial Day, upper 80s on Tuesday, with variable temps the rest of the week as storms will pulse each day with the Alberto interaction.
Remember when we totally skipped Spring?
Check out Subtropical Alberto, trying his hardest to be a big deal before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle later today:
Tons of dry air wrapping in, but it's still a heavy rain maker for the western Panhandle, and a possible severe threat for the eastern Panhandle and southern Georgia.
So why does this matter for us? Because the remnants of Alberto will roll unimpeded in to the Ohio Valley over the next couple days. As of now the heaviest rain appears to pass west of us, but that doesn't mean we're out of the woods. You notice all of the severe weather is displaced off to the east of the center right now? That'll still be the case once it moves in to Indiana and Illinois by Wednesday:
This will bring unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday, with the potential to spark more storms Thursday and Friday as well. This will move north and a little northwest until Wednesday evening when it hits a low pressure coming in from the Dakotas. That's where uncertainty lies. Some models want to retrograde the low back in to the Ohio Valley, while others send it east in to eastern Canada.
In the meantime we'll be in the low 90s for Memorial Day, upper 80s on Tuesday, with variable temps the rest of the week as storms will pulse each day with the Alberto interaction.
Remember when we totally skipped Spring?
Sunday, May 20, 2018
THE WEEKLY - May 20-26
Should I post a picture of a broken record? Nah, that seems too on the nose. Maybe I'll go back with last week's post and just throw in the 50% pops image. That seems applicable.
Forget it. I'll just tell everyone that we're in a summer-like pattern at the end of May. It's been like this for a couple weeks, and it'll be like this until something kicks the pattern the other way. And this week won't be when that happens.
Last Tuesday we had a tornado warning in Columbus. I don't think we'll see big storms like that at all this week. Today would be the best chance, and even that is marginal as a distrubance from Illinois eventually makes its way toward the southern half of Ohio.
Instead, expect a 50% chance of storms Monday and Tuesday before high pressure finally starts to build in over the Great Lakes region:
Forget it. I'll just tell everyone that we're in a summer-like pattern at the end of May. It's been like this for a couple weeks, and it'll be like this until something kicks the pattern the other way. And this week won't be when that happens.
Last Tuesday we had a tornado warning in Columbus. I don't think we'll see big storms like that at all this week. Today would be the best chance, and even that is marginal as a distrubance from Illinois eventually makes its way toward the southern half of Ohio.
Instead, expect a 50% chance of storms Monday and Tuesday before high pressure finally starts to build in over the Great Lakes region:
That high pressure should do a decent job to suppress thunderstorm development Wednesday and Thursday, but I wouldn't be as bold to say a 0% chance either of those days.
But you'll notice I drew the High moving southeast of us. By Friday we'll return to a southern flow which should raise temps, increase moisture and bring our chance of storms back.
While it's still over a week away, I would like to address the potential for a weak tropical entity to finally bring us a pattern shift:
There is a ton of uncertainty this far out, including whether this will even develop. But a heavy rain event could be occuring somewhere along the Gulf coast on Memorial Day next week. This is something we should be concerned about since the previously mentioned High pressure will have moved off and this could track right in to the Ohio Valley. That would bring us heavy rain, but it could also kick our pattern in to some wackiness. It's hard to tell what that could mean this far out, but it's worth watching.
Have a great week!
Monday, May 14, 2018
THE WEEKLY - May 13-19
There's really not a whole lot to say about this week's weather. I guess I'll just borrow an image from the NWS:
There. That about covers it. Every day, every night for the next 6 days.... this. A chance of storms every single day as this stalled out boundry moves a little north, then a little south. No day looks more promising than the next for big storms or for completely dry conditions.
I'd say the only feature that could change things up, and even possibly break this pattern, will be the system in the Gulf that is dousing Florida with rain right now. It'll be spinning there for a while, but eventually it'll head our way. When it does, it'll enhance thunderstorm activity and even bring us steadier rain for the day Friday, before turning back out to sea Saturday:
There. That about covers it. Every day, every night for the next 6 days.... this. A chance of storms every single day as this stalled out boundry moves a little north, then a little south. No day looks more promising than the next for big storms or for completely dry conditions.
I'd say the only feature that could change things up, and even possibly break this pattern, will be the system in the Gulf that is dousing Florida with rain right now. It'll be spinning there for a while, but eventually it'll head our way. When it does, it'll enhance thunderstorm activity and even bring us steadier rain for the day Friday, before turning back out to sea Saturday:
We're a little too far out to say for sure that this could break the pattern, but I think it has a good shot.
In the meantime, be prepared every day this week for possible severe weather, heavy rain, small hail and even high winds. This is your Summer pattern, just a month or two early.
Friday, May 11, 2018
Saturday's Slight Risk of Storms
I'm sure anywhere you've looked the impressive temperature split in Ohio has been talked to death. Yes, it's incredible to see a stationary front give us mid 80s in Cincinnati and upper 40s in Cleveland. But it's not just Ohio. It has the northern third of most of the country locked back in to a late winter feel:
We're going to be looking at that boundry tomorrow for what could be a decent shot at some severe storms across Central Ohio. Points east of us look to have a better shot with an Enhanced Risk:
It's going to be a very narrow area where storms could develop tomorrow. You're dealing with the perfect match of instability and forcing with the front draped across the area, but if you go too far north you're cloaked in clouds and precip which limits instability. Too far south, like near the Ohio River where instability will be high, you're too far away from the best forcing to actually ignite the storms.
That's why Central Ohio looks like the bullseye for the biggest storms tomorrow:
This zone could move 50 miles either way by tomorrow, but as of now I'd say right along I-70 is a good target for the biggest storms. Our main risk should be hail and high winds. This won't be a highly sheared environment so I don't think we will see any sort of tornado outbreak, but I wouldn't rule out a stray twist up.
I think something that hasn't been talked about enough with this setup tomorrow is the prime potential to see storms train over the same area and drop high rainfall totals. Don't be surprised if you see some isolated 2-3" spots by tomorrow night if these storms repeatedly hit the same area.
I doubt I'll be able to LiveBlog tomorrow as I'll be out and about, but follow the Twitter account for instant updates of our situation as storms fire tomorrow.
We're going to be looking at that boundry tomorrow for what could be a decent shot at some severe storms across Central Ohio. Points east of us look to have a better shot with an Enhanced Risk:
It's going to be a very narrow area where storms could develop tomorrow. You're dealing with the perfect match of instability and forcing with the front draped across the area, but if you go too far north you're cloaked in clouds and precip which limits instability. Too far south, like near the Ohio River where instability will be high, you're too far away from the best forcing to actually ignite the storms.
That's why Central Ohio looks like the bullseye for the biggest storms tomorrow:
This zone could move 50 miles either way by tomorrow, but as of now I'd say right along I-70 is a good target for the biggest storms. Our main risk should be hail and high winds. This won't be a highly sheared environment so I don't think we will see any sort of tornado outbreak, but I wouldn't rule out a stray twist up.
I think something that hasn't been talked about enough with this setup tomorrow is the prime potential to see storms train over the same area and drop high rainfall totals. Don't be surprised if you see some isolated 2-3" spots by tomorrow night if these storms repeatedly hit the same area.
I doubt I'll be able to LiveBlog tomorrow as I'll be out and about, but follow the Twitter account for instant updates of our situation as storms fire tomorrow.
Monday, May 7, 2018
THE WEEKLY - May 6-12
Sorry about being a day late on The Weekly. It's not like I missed out on much, today was a pretty perfect day, a high in the low 70s and clouds dissipating throughout the day.
So what should we expect for the rest of the week? Well, not much of a changeup from today for the most part. Every day should be in the high 70s with lots of sun! Oh, except for one day. Of course we couldn't have five perfect days in a row.
Thursday we should see some showers with a very slight chance of thunder in the late afternoon and early evening. I don't think this system brings us much rain at all, maybe a tenth of an inch, and a very tiny chance of any storms:
You'll notice the low pressure with Thursday's front is way up in to Canada, which means most of the forcing for storms should stay well north as well. But then that's it. After Thursday night we're right back to sun and warmth. So much warmth that as of now, the weekend looks down right summer-like:
Above is the 2m temp anomoly for Saturday. Huge warmth in the center and eastern portions of the country, thanks to a large blocking high off the Atlantic coast.
I'll post again if Thursday's event becomes anything more than a light rain maker. Otherwise, enjoy this great weather week ahead!
So what should we expect for the rest of the week? Well, not much of a changeup from today for the most part. Every day should be in the high 70s with lots of sun! Oh, except for one day. Of course we couldn't have five perfect days in a row.
Thursday we should see some showers with a very slight chance of thunder in the late afternoon and early evening. I don't think this system brings us much rain at all, maybe a tenth of an inch, and a very tiny chance of any storms:
You'll notice the low pressure with Thursday's front is way up in to Canada, which means most of the forcing for storms should stay well north as well. But then that's it. After Thursday night we're right back to sun and warmth. So much warmth that as of now, the weekend looks down right summer-like:
Above is the 2m temp anomoly for Saturday. Huge warmth in the center and eastern portions of the country, thanks to a large blocking high off the Atlantic coast.
I'll post again if Thursday's event becomes anything more than a light rain maker. Otherwise, enjoy this great weather week ahead!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)