FLOOD WATCH: Heavy Rain Expected This Weekend

The NWS has a Flood Watch extending from Arkansas to Ohio in anticipation for a weekend of heavy rain and possibly dangerous flooding. The setup I described in The Weekly looks to be more of a problem that I originally thought. Part of that is because of us being wedged between two strong high pressure systems, but the other part would be the remnant moisture from Gordon.

Here's a visual of what I just described:

Expect rain to start overnight tonight and not to let up until early Monday morning. That's about 48 straight hours of moderate to heavy rain. That'll be enough to bring most rivers to flood stage and just about every small creek and stream out of their banks. Low lying areas you're used to seeing flood... will flood.

While the heavy rain is inevitable, what isn't set in stone yet is where the heaviest rain will fall. Here's why:

The Initial Offering

Rain on Saturday morning through late Saturday night will be of the light to moderate variety. This is moisture getting squeezed out of the frontal boundary, well ahead of the main forcing with ex-Gordon. But at this point, the former tropical entity will be taking over the entire front and influencing its strength and trajectory through the Ohio Valley. At that point Saturday it'll be a matter of whether the norther High is strong enough to keep the boundary from advancing too far north as a warm front and taking the greatest moisture with it. This could mean the difference between an inch and a trace in the first 12 hours of our system.

What's Left of Gordon

The question will probably be answered with what happens with the initial offering. I believe if we see a northward advancing warm front Saturday, we'll see a more northern solution for the track of the low pressure remnants. The heaviest precip will fall north and east of the center, so a track in to northern Ohio may limit our heavy rain exposure here in Central Ohio. Because of that, and the uncertainty of either of these two parts, models range from 1"-6" for right in the Columbus area, with more north and less south.

I think if I had to settle on a solution right now, I'd say things will be much heavier to the north of us. Places like Delaware and Marysville may see a high end of 3", while places south of I-70 may get an inch, or even less the further south you go. There's a good chance that places around the Ohio River may come out of this thing with a quarter of an inch or less, as long as this trend continues to support a northern track.

But What About Football?
With a kickoff scheduled for 3:30pm in Ohio Stadium on Saturday, here's a look ahead at what it'll look like inside:

Sorry, there's really no way around it, there will be rain almost the entire game. Our only chance of it letting up is if there's a more northerly push of a warm front, possibly giving us a reprieve. Otherwise, bring your rain gear.

I'll be posting updates all weekend via Twitter, be sure to follow!