Busy Week of Multiple Storm Systems

Halloween ended up being better than expected, with areas north and west of I-71 staying mostly dry for the evening, and only some light showers south and east. Last year we dealt with cold, this year rain. Maybe we'll have snow next year?

Ok, I would like it. The kids wouldn't.

Now that we're in to November, snow is fair game though, and we may have our first chance at flakes near the end of this week. First we have to get through a windy, possibly stormy, start to the week.

A cold front will try to pass through the area tonight, but instead will wash out and dissipate in Indiana. We'll see some showers overnight and in to tomorrow morning, but without the front clearing the area, temps should stay up tonight.

I believe this system directly influences the path of the next one. If this front is able to pass further east, it'll set up how far and strong the next system will be Monday in to Tuesday. If I would have written this entry a few days ago, I'd be telling you we will have an extremely dangerous storm moving in. But the models have really backed off on the intensity and instability with this storm.

The NAM still shows this could be a potent storm:

Most models have the low dropping to a sub 990mb by the time it crosses the Great Lakes, but previous runs had it going sub 980mb. So we may have dodged a bullet when it comes to the intensity. I still think it'll be gusty post-frontal passage on Tuesday, and we could see a healthy squall line Monday night in to early Tuesday morning, but the likelihood of that seems lower now. Areas south of the Ohio River probably have a better shot at severe weather.

Even with this being a huge storm system, temps won't really drop off that much after Tuesday. That is, until our next front passes through near the end of the week. The system itself isn't going to be all that powerful. It'll be more of a southern low, but it's just a result of the massive arctic air that'll be filtering down from Canada.

On Saturday, temps 20° below average will be centered over the Plains:

That northwesterly flow that brings in all the cold air will also setup our first lake effect of the season. That's when we could see some flakes flying next weekend.

I'm not going to go too in depth this far out, but expect another post as we get closer to next weekend. The cold is coming!