Winter Weather Advisories reach from the Gulf Coast to Upstate New York with this system which promises to bring snow and ice to a large section of the eastern US. Let's see what we're dealing with tonight.
The Setup
We've got a double barrel southern low on our hands, but luckily not a very powerful one. The western low will move almost due north before transferring to the coast to amplify the eastern low. Before it dies off, our eastern low will do a good enough job pushing warm air up and over our cold air that has been entrenched here for several days.
It's a decent setup for some ice in the overnight hours, but the when and where are really hard to pin down for sure.
Prediction
I just don't see this playing out to be a storm to talk too much about. 24 hours ago it had my attention. It was looking like we could see some snow and a little ice. Now this is shifting towards a mostly ice event, and those almost never pan out around here. Here's why:
I don't think temps drop very low. Yes, we'll get to freezing, perhaps to 30° or 31° for a short time, but I think this surge of warm air aloft gets deep enough to influence surface temps. It's almost 4pm and we're still only at 31°, but I think we stay steady after the sun sets.We would need surfaces to get much cooler to really contribute to ice growth.
Snow almost seems out of the question. Everything is pointing to precip type falling as rain during the whole event. Perhaps early on, the first hour or so when precip is light, we could see snowflakes, but nothing accumulative. By sunrise temps will rise just enough above freezing that we'll eventually just be in a cold rain scenario.
It'll be tomorrow evening as the storm system moves out and the upper low barrels in from the west that we might see a changeover to snow, but even then it probably wouldn't be more than a dusting.
I officially say we get a light glaze on elevated surfaces by sunrise, roads stay primarily wet, and we may see a few school delays. This one will be a snoozer.
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