Sunday, May 20, 2018

THE WEEKLY - May 20-26

Should I post a picture of a broken record? Nah, that seems too on the nose. Maybe I'll go back with last week's post and just throw in the 50% pops image. That seems applicable.

Forget it. I'll just tell everyone that we're in a summer-like pattern at the end of May. It's been like this for a couple weeks, and it'll be like this until something kicks the pattern the other way. And this week won't be when that happens.

Last Tuesday we had a tornado warning in Columbus. I don't think we'll see big storms like that at all this week. Today would be the best chance, and even that is marginal as a distrubance from Illinois eventually makes its way toward the southern half of Ohio.

Instead, expect a 50% chance of storms Monday and Tuesday before high pressure finally starts to build in over the Great Lakes region:

That high pressure should do a decent job to suppress thunderstorm development Wednesday and Thursday, but I wouldn't be as bold to say a 0% chance either of those days.

But you'll notice I drew the High moving southeast of us. By Friday we'll return to a southern flow which should raise temps, increase moisture and bring our chance of storms back.

While it's still over a week away, I would like to address the potential for a weak tropical entity to finally bring us a pattern shift:

There is a ton of uncertainty this far out, including whether this will even develop. But a heavy rain event could be occuring somewhere along the Gulf coast on Memorial Day next week. This is something we should be concerned about since the previously mentioned High pressure will have moved off and this could track right in to the Ohio Valley. That would bring us heavy rain, but it could also kick our pattern in to some wackiness. It's hard to tell what that could mean this far out, but it's worth watching.

Have a great week!

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