Will Halloween Be A Rain-Out?

When I was a kid we didn't have to ask what night Trick Or Treating was. It was always Halloween night. We didn't even have a time range for going out, everyone just kind of knew and went out. By the time I was old enough to have a kid of my own I had to rely on the news because every community seemed to have a different night for beggars. Luckily this year I feel like most everyone settled on Halloween night here in Central Ohio. The problem with that? Well... it's gonna rain.

We've known for a few days we could have a high precipitation event this week, but it appears we're settling on a Wednesday through Friday timeframe now. The NWS already has a Flood Watch out for the entire area:

A front will quickly move in from the west tomorrow before hitting the brakes over the area and stalling out. Where it stalls out will determine whether we have a rain-out tomorrow night or not.

Right now there are two solutions for tomorrow evening, and neither solution looks like a 100% washout. But does the front stall directly over I-71, or move down more along the Ohio River? If it dives further south, we may have a completely rain free evening. If not? It's scattered showers, with heavier embedded cells possible:

The HRRR pictured favors the northern solution, which means it'll definitely rain... but how much and how constant? Earlier runs of the NAM had all of the rain south of us, but now the newest run matches back up with the HRRR. I'm leaving the southern solution out there as a possibility just because it's been shown before, and it could still happen. It all depends how far south and east this front pushes before becoming stationary.

Once it does stall, you see that slug of precip in Missouri in the model above? Expect a couple rounds of those through Wednesday night and Thursday before we finally get a push from a low that'll ride along the boundary and finally push this system out of here on Friday:

By Friday afternoon we could actually see some sun and a break in the rain for the whole weekend. A drastic change from what we'll see coming up. Expect 2-4" widespread with this system, with road and small stream flooding not just possible by likely.

It'll be a wet Halloween, but here's to hoping it isn't a total washout for us.