December 16: Round 2

Round 1 was a decent snowfall for all of us in Central Ohio. I believe the only areas left disappointed would be north of a line from Marysville to Delaware, and even they got at least an inch of snow.

Moving on to Round 2, and we have a much more difficult forecast to try and nail. It's our typical mixed bag, splitting the area in half with snow north, rain south, and an icy mess in between. So who gets what? That's what I'll try and lay out for you.

The Setup
A second southern low in as many days will be racing in to the Ohio Valley.

This one has a lot more moisture, and more warm air to push up and over the cold air we have in place. For Southern Ohio, that means enough warm air reaches the surface to bring a cold rain all afternoon and night. But for Central Ohio, it's the split.

The Event
Between 3pm and 4pm this afternoon we'll see precipitation begin to overtake Central Ohio. Just about everyone should start as rain with our temperatures in the upper 30s, but as the sun sets, diurnal heating will leave us with tumbling temps.

What happens after sunset will be messy and hard to pin down for exact locations. So here's an idea of what we could see:

I don't think these regions I've drawn are set in stone, either. As with most of these scenarios, a small tug north or south could drastically change who sees what.

Frankly I don't think models have a good handle on this. Some want to give all rain to our area and others are much more aggressive with snow as far south as Circleville to Lancaster line. I want to stay somewhere in the middle, with the focus for transition right around I-71 (as usual).

I've also drawn the Rain/Sleet/Snow area much larger than what most local news outlets will because of that extreme uncertainty. We could see an interesting temperature profile on the 7pm sounding out of ILN with a big clash of cold and warm air aloft.

Prediction
This one is super hard to determine, but I've seen this type of storm a million times in Central Ohio, and nine times out of ten the warm air advances further north than anyone expects. Here's what I think snowfall looks like:

These totals could move north or south by as many as 50 miles depending on what the temperature profile looks like overnight. I'll be posting on Twitter as precip starts and give you updates on what changes we could expect to this forecast.

December 15: Round 1

Now that we're getting in to high resolution model range it's becoming clear that Round 1 of this storm may actually be a little more impactful that originally thought. In yesterday's post I suggested this would be a light coating of snow, and then we'd begin looking ahead to Round 2. Well now the latest model runs are suggesting a more robust system that could bring a couple inches to parts of Central Ohio.

The Setup
We're around 30° this morning for much of the area, and I don't think we'll see much movement in temps throughout the day. Clouds and a cold pool of air leftover after yesterday's system has us locked in just below freezing throughout.

This should do two things: allow us to at least start as all snow tonight, and bring road surface temperatures down to near freezing so snow can stick as well. That's not a great combination.

The System Moves In

Snow should start around 9pm for our southern counties and slowly fill the area. Where the question lies is how far north this warm air aloft travels. Right now I think areas north of I-70 stay all snow tonight, while areas south could see a changeover to sleet or freezing rain for a couple hours around 3am before it all moves off before sunrise.

This will mean a slick morning commute for most. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 7am Monday for light accumulations and possible ice.

I don't have time to make a snow map for this system, but expect a widespread 1-2" around Central Ohio, with possibly as much as 3" in isolated spots south of I-70 if there isn't a changeover early tomorrow morning.

I'll be posting a lot more on Twitter as this storm approaches.

Forecasting the December 15-16 Storm

We're about 24 hours out from the start of what will be a long duration storm for us here in Central Ohio. There have been rumblings on the internet about this storm for the past 10 days, but I've purposely kept quiet on this until now because it was just too far out to speculate on until now.

This will be our first decent "southern low" of the year, even though it's originating in the southern Plains. The track will bring it up from Texas in to the Ohio Valley by Sunday evening:

But this isn't a quick hitter. After the storm moves through by Monday early morning, a secondary low, shown in New Mexico on the map above, will intensify and head up along the quasi stationary boundary by Monday afternoon, giving us our second shot of snow.

The details are still going to be tough to nail down, so here's what we know for sure:

Sunday Night
Tomorrow will be chilly, with temps in the low 30's and slowly falling as sunset occurs. With this, a light shield of precip will move in from the south. This should be all snow for most of the overnight hours.

It seems unlikely that we'll see any major accumulations out of round 1. Perhaps a nice dusting on the grass and a couple slick spots for the morning commute on Monday.

Monday during the Day
Temps will slowly rise to the upper 30s after sunrise Monday. Any light snow will switch over to rain before our second wave of precip moves in. This is the trickiest part of the forecast, because this will also bring a surge of warm air northward. There will be so many questions about how warm, how far and how long that surge sticks around.

Monday Evening
The system begins to pull away and we switch back over to snow. As of now I don't think this is a major snow maker Monday night, but the trends bear watching for sure. We could wake up with 1-2" in parts of Central Ohio Tuesday morning if conditions are right.

I plan on writing more tomorrow as the storm gets closer and we can get a better handle on precip types for our area. Stay tuned!

Veteran's Day Storm

My apologies for not giving this more of an rundown in advance of the storm. Tomorrow is all but certain now to be our first accumulating snow of the season for most if not all of Central Ohio.

The morning should actually start out dry and mild before getting squeezed between two competing air masses:

This animation is the best example of what we're up against for timing of the onset of snow tomorrow. In Southern Ohio it'll get in to the 60s out ahead of the front, while northern Ohio is already below freezing before daybreak.

But that dark blue line in the middle, at the end of the animation, is where the action will happen. And for us, it's all a matter of when that line pushes south, to determine when we move over to snow.

The temperature animation ends at 1pm, but we don't even see precip start until sometime after 3pm:

This is different from last week's storm because of how far the cold air advances before it even starts raining. There's even an outside chance that we have very little rain out of this storm, and cold air overruns the precip shield quick enough to hit us with snow early.

When the changeover happens, we could see periods of pretty heavy snow for the first couple of hours. That could allow rapid accumulation, even though our ground will still be fairly warm. Right now I think changeover will happen at or a little after sunset. This should be good news for the evening commute, as long as the system doesn't speed up.

That being said, here's our first snowfall map of the season:

This assumes a few hours of rain to start, followed by heavy snow for a couple hours before trailing off after midnight. If any of those variables change, so does this map.

I'll be posting on Twitter all day tomorrow, so be sure to follow me HERE

First Potential Snow - One Day Out

Now that we're within 24 hours of a potential snow, boy did a lot of people start speculating that we would get a decent accumulation out of this. Starting late last night in to midday today I saw a lot of posts saying, "models show accumulation tomorrow!"

Nothing's changed. So then why all the posts? Well, it's the first storm of the season, and high res models started to pick up the storm. So any model watchers immediately jumped at the first 30 hour model from the HRRR they saw.

Our storm system is finally coming together tonight, with a southern and a northern stream on their way to merging over our area tomorrow:

The Forecast:
Expect scattered rain showers this evening before the storm really comes together in to widespread rain by tomorrow morning, sometime after rush hour. Then things get interesting.:

You'll notice at the end of the loop a small area of precip changing over to snow. That'll grow, but the real question will be how quick it changes over, and for how long before the precip ends.

Unfortunately I don't think the whole area sees accumulating snow, or even snow flakes at all. Western Ohio gets the transition with the cold air coming in there first, but as of right now it appears the precip moves out before the whole area can change over to snow.

Here's where I think we could see a light dusting of snow, on grassy surfaces:

Again, I still think this is a fluid situatuion, all dependent on when the snow changeover happens. I'll be posting pretty frequently on Twitter tomorrow.

First Potential Snow - 2 Days Out

Ah, the early season storm excitement might have all been for nothing. For the past couple of days, the weather models have been pretty consistent on giving us little if any in the way of the white stuff here in Central Ohio. While this isn't an official forecast, the Euro gives us a pretty good idea of what Thursday afternoon might look like:

That might be the saddest excuse of a backside snow that I've ever seen. It's not even on the backside of a deepening low, or even a Ridge Runner. No, this is just a regular looking boundary with cold air forcing itself in and causing a brief changeover before the precip ends.

On top of the weakness of this scenario, the timing isn't great either. A few days ago this looked like it had potential to change overnight Thursday in to Friday. Instead the storm seems to speed up and snow could fall in the afternoon. It's still too early in the season for our environment to be cold enough to support an event like this for accumulating snow, so right now we're going to be down to tracking this for our first chance of a dusting. I think our 1"> snow chances are pretty low.

I'll give a forecast tomorrow, with a snow map if needed.

First Potential Snow - 3 Days Out

It seems a little early in the season to be talking about it, but sure enough we have a chance for our first snow Thursday night.

The Setup:

A disturbance will drop down out of Canada and meet up with moisture from the Gulf around Oklahoma, setting up a true battle of cold and warm air, to determine if we get our first snow of the season.

As the storm moves across the country, high pressure and deep arctic air will settle to the north of the boundary. The strength and positioning of that cold airmass could ironically push the boundary far enough south to keep us out of the precip. Or, it could be shallow enough to allow warm air to win out and we get rain.

This, like so many boundary storms, will be all about location.

As we get closer, I'll be able to give you a better idea of what to expect as this storm bears down on us Thursday in to Friday. For now, keep your guards up for the potential for wintry weather.

A Nasty Halloween 2019

Halloween always seems to be somewhat frightful around Central Ohio when it comes to our weather. If it seems like I've written about stormy Trick Or Treating before, it's because I have. I would have more posts to link to if Weather Underground still had archives, but 7 years ago we also dealt with some Halloween snowflakes on the backside of Sandy.

So here we are again. Starting this afternoon we will be rainy, leading all the way in to a possibly ugly Halloween evening for all the kids going house to house. Lets set it up:

A large sprawling storm is entering out area today and will be with us through tomorrow evening, with two different rounds of precip.

Round 1 should start a little after lunchtime for Central Ohio, with areas west getting wet first. This will be a moderate to heavy at times rain that'll last well in to the evening. Expect 0.5" to 1" throughout the area with this round.

We'll have a few hours overnight without rain before round 2 approaches just before sunrise.

Round 2 really is the main event. We're looking at heavier rain, winds picking up, and the much anticipated FROPA with plummeting temperatures. We'll miss out on severe thunderstorms here in Ohio, as stability just won't be there. Perhaps if we had some clearing out ahead of round 2, and better timing for diurnal heating we would be looking at a severe risk, but I think at best we're looking at heavy rain with the front approaching and perhaps a clap of thunder. Overall the odds are very low on even a chance of thunder.

Trick Or Treat

The big question that's been floating out there for days is how this will affect the little ones out and about on Thursday evening. The news is good and bad.

Models have been speeding up the frontal passage over the past couple days. The NAM-3K currently shows rain splitting Central Ohio at 5pm on Thursday, which would mean most of us should be dry 6pm. I actually think this ends up speeding up a little more once the front approaches, so I feel pretty confident in saying we shouldn't need the umbrellas except perhaps in far eastern Fairfield and Licking Counties at the onset.

The bad news is with the FROPA comes very gusty winds and cold temperatures. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we see a Wind Advisory issued for tomorrow night, with winds gusting as high as 50mph heading in to the overnight hours. For the early evening, it'll be gusty and temps starting in the mid 50s but probably dropping to the upper 30s by the end of Trick or Treating.

What About The Snow?

You probably noticed snow on the predictive radar image, and I can't rule out a few flakes flying Thursday late night in to Friday morning. But as you can see in the image below, any chance for accumulation will stay well north of us:

Don't expect to wake up to school closings and snow on the lawn Friday morning, but this does mean we're getting closer and closer to our first snow of the season!

Here Comes the Relief

Temperatures will reach 90° for the fourth day in a row here in Central Ohio, and for what I anticipate will be the last time in 2019. The monster ridge that has been persistent across the eastern US for what seems like months will finally lose its influence on our weather pattern starting this afternoon.

Expect a cold front and a regiem change late this afternoon. Usually large temperature swings see severe storms, but this is a relatively dry airmass taking over an already dry atmosphere, so there's nothing there to spark this afternoon. Northeastern Ohio may see some storms, but for the most part we'll stay dry:

While we won't be getting a much needed drink (more about that in a moment), we will be getting our first real taste of fall for all of us in Ohio. Watching this temperature animation over the next several hours is very satisfying:

We may not get out of the 50's tomorrow afternoon along and north of Columbus! That's quite a shock to the system compared to all of these record breaking days at the start of the month.

Here in Canal Winchester I recorded 0.78" of rain for the entire month of September, and I'm sitting at 0" so far in October. This has led to crunchy lawns and dried out crops across Central Ohio. During the middle of the year the rain seemed to come at a steady pace and keep us in good shape, but now most of Ohio is considered Abnormally Dry, with Moderate Drought taking place in Western Ohio:

It looks like our next good shot at rain is at the end of the weekend. Unfortunately October is traditionally our driest month anyway, so here's to hoping along with the falling temps we can buck the precipitation trend also!

The Hottest Start to October

It's been five months since my last post on here. That's not saying I've given up blogging about weather, but it says a lot about where my passion is. And it's not on 90 degree days with 60% humidity.

It's usually this time of year that all of us snow lovers start looking toward a change in seasons and the slow transition to an atmosphere that could support snowfall. October is our big transition month, we start warm and sometimes even end with a dusting of snow. But this October is probably going down in the record books for all time record highs.

The all time record high for October in Columbus is 91° back in 2007. There's a chance we break that tomorrow. The eastern US is going to bake:

NWS has forecasted highs in Columbus at 93° on Tuesday and 92° on Wednesday. We could see unprecedented back to back record breakers.

Any of us looking for relief will find it as a cold front sags south Thursday and brings us cooler weather by Friday. With highs in the 60s on Friday, we'll finally begin to feel like Fall. But the first real system that will stair-step us down from these hot temperatures will come in next Tuesday:

Not a whole lot to say about this system yet since it's still 8 days away, but those blue colors on the map tell you everything you need to know. Something to keep in mind heading in to that time frame is when we see blasts of cooler air collide with our warm weather, we usually have a risk for severe storms. So while it's nothing to analyze just yet, keep in mind we may be dealing with a potent severe setup next week at this time.

I'll be updating the blog more regularly now that we're slowly descending in to Winter Weather Season!

Enhanced Risk - April 14th

Don't let this morning's cool showers fool you, we're in for a potential severe weather outbreak across the region this afternoon.

The SPC has most of Central Ohio under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather today:

We've had over a half an inch of rain this morning, and in most cases this would really inhibit storm development later in the day. That's not the case today, as a warm front races in by noon and give us almost complete clearing. With a strong cold front approaching and temps soaring from the 40s to the 70s, we won't be in a high shear low cape environment.. we may actually be able to achieve some decent instability for early Spring.

By mid afternoon we should make it to the mid 1000s J/kg, which in a high shear environment should be more than enough to support supercells.

Expect storms to initiate by early to mid afternoon, with individual cells expected along and west of US23. Eventually these will gel in to a quasi-linear area of storms that'll race across eastern Ohio:

On top of all of this, we should see some significant wind gusts mix down to the surface as the sun comes out, allowing 40-50mph gusts through late afternoon here in Central Ohio.

OUR RISK
I think our greatest risk this afternoon will be from straight line winds embedded within thunderstorms. Eastern Ohio is where the greatest tornadic threat will be this afternoon, but I can't rule out a tornado for us here in Central Ohio.

I'll be posting all day on Twitter with updates. Keep your weather radio nearby!

Winter's Last Hurrah

Over the past couple weeks we've seen our first 70 degree days, our first completely cloudless days and some spring time thunderstorms. So hey, why not revert back to Winter? Ya know, for old time's sake.

A very strong cold front will cross the region later this evening, bringing the kind of deep temperature gradient we usually see with mid-Fall storm systems. Temperatures will get close to 60º this afternoon before dropping to the mid 20s by sunrise tomorrow. That's a 35º temperature change!

It's not just a temperature swing we'll see today, but heavy rain right through the heart of Central Ohio. Latest models show 1.5-2.0" of rain by sunset this evening, which could lead to some localized flooding. Mostly standing water will be the threat today, with river levels having dropped low enough to not threaten a huge rise in water levels.

But the big story will be the potential for one last snowfall before we transition in to traditional Spring weather. After the front passes through this evening and temps drop close to freezing, we might have enough moisture on the backside of this system to give us a light dusting of snow:

The greatest threat for accumulating snow will be in Western and Northern Ohio, but depending on how quick the moisture pulls out as the front passes by, I think we have a shot at least at some snow showers after midnight.

I don't think this warrants a snow map, but at the most I think north of I-70 could see half an inch here in Central Ohio. Northern Ohio will probably be the winner with 2-3" on the ground, but even if we got that here, none will stick to the roads. Surface temps will not fall off nearly as quickly as air temps, so we could see snow in the low 30s, but it'll be melting on roads in the low 50s.

Sunday and Monday will stay well below average before recovering for the rest of the work week. I feel pretty confident saying this should be our last chance at accumulating snow until next season.

Goodbye Winter, I'll miss you!

Central US Blizzard Brings Storms for Ohio

More eye candy of this epic storm. #thundersnow. #WinterStormUlmer #BombCyclone pic.twitter.com/I9YzTsWcIn

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) March 13, 2019

On the anniversary of The Storm of the Century we've got a doppelganger crossi.ng the Midwest tonight. 60-80mph wind gusts accompany heavy snow to bring the biggest blizzard of the season for the country. This one will probably go down in history as one of the lowest pressure inland storms in US history.

Usually I don't cover much weather outside of the Ohio Valley area, but this storm will have an affect on us soon. Here's a look at the SPC's severe weather outlook for tomorrow:

Today's low pressure bomb has hit its max strength and will now head northeast toward the Great Lakes region. While areas like Minnesota will see the wintry side of this storm, we're in the warm sector, which means we will get the severe side also.

This will be a high shear, low cape event.

Tomorrow will be the first day since last October we will be in the 70s. With warm temps and the possibility of clouds breaking up ahead of the front, we could actually be looking at a potent early season storm. If we have enough sun before the front, that may give us enough instability to pair up with the shear.

On top of everything else, we have yet another Wind Advisory for tomorrow. This one is a little different than the last couple wind events because storms will actually accompany the wind. That means any storms will bring even higher winds than normal.

The NAM shows possible wind gusts for tomorrow night:

I think tomorrow could be a very eventful day. I'll be posting on Twitter and possibly going with a LiveBlog tomorrow evening as the storm approaches.

Slow Transition to Spring

Sometimes we turn the calendar to March and it's like we flip a switch. We get a quick warm up and suddenly we're in Spring. This month, however, I don't think we're really see Spring for another couple weeks. At least not a constant Spring.

For at least the next 10 days, this is how the weather pattern will play out. Yes, it'll make for an active time for us, but it will not allow prolonged warmth:

Like we will have tonight in to tomorrow, what we should expect in this pattern is to be on the warm side of deepening lows, bringing us rain and wind, with a strong shot of cold on the backside. We'll have one day of warm, followed by 2-3 days of cold until the next storm moves in.

I think we've seen our coldest day until next Winter already. I recorded 7 degrees on March 5th, and we may not even see air that cold again until January 2020! Just because our coldest air is behind us doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods. I think we still have an outside chance of one more accumulating snow before everything is said and done.

Just like our slow decent in to Winter, we'll have a slow climb out of it as well.

Sunday Storm Is Weak

I had some reservations about Sunday's storm and now I understand why. Spring storms should not be trusted. A setup you've seen a dozen times this winter can act a totally different way in the Spring. Surprisingly it's a blast of cold air that messes things up for us this time.

An arctic blast will be pushing the low further south than earlier models suggested. We went from a significant snow to a small accumulation.

Sunday's storm will now only bring us 1-2", mostly daytime accumulation, with warm road surface temps that will keep roads wet. This went from a potential blockbuster storm to a weak Sunday system.

After Sunday, expect highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for the new couple days.

QUICK UPDATE: Sunday Snow

Not a whole lot to update from yesterday, but we are beginning to narrow down the track and hone in on some snowfall numbers. Here's what we know:

PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
Early on I had a fear this could slide far enough north to include a mix along and south of I-70. At this time though, the center of the low should stay far enough south to leave us as all snow.

DAYTIME SNOWFALL
I thought maybe we had a shot at this being up there as our biggest snow of the season if it snows overnight. Right now the timing appears to be all daylight hours on Sunday. This is a problem for accumulation.

As I mentioned yesterday, daytime is not great for accumulating snow in March. With the higher sun angle, some snow may melt before even having a chance to stick. We could have plenty of snow in the air, and hardly any on the ground.

NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
In the end it appears this may just be a moderate accumulation event. This system will stay far enough south to not hit us with a jackpot zone, and the daytime snow isn't very favorable for snow lovers.

There's still time for this path to move some, but most models have it riding the southern Tennessee border. That's further south than I said yesterday, and so in response the snow totals have dropped for our area. The low will transition to a coastal low after it passes due south of us, so precip will cut off quickly in the late afternoon.

I'll post tomorrow with snow predictions for our area. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some Winter Weather Advisories for southern Ohio by this time tomorrow.

FIRST LOOK: Possible Sunday Storm

People have been posting model maps for a couple days, showing outrageous snow totals and all kinds of speculation about a storm that'll pass south of us Sunday, so I decided it's time to finally address the possibility.

This storm will be similar in setup to just about every storm we've had this year. It's a southern storm that seems to creep further and further north in to our area with each and every model run. A few days ago no one was even talking about this system as a potential for us because the track took it through Alabama and Georgia. At this point it's modeled to go along the Tennessee/Kentucky border. Don't be surprised if by Saturday morning we're looking at this thing coming in to Northern Kentucky. It's the natural progression of these storms it seems.

All of our ingredients are about to come together on the other side of the county and form a deepening low around Oklahoma:

This more northern progression has also brought interest in New England, as this could finally bring them a Nor'Easter. For us, right now it appears we could see snow for Central Ohio, as long as the track stays the same it does now. How much? That's still yet to be seen. Measurable is how I would describe it at this point.

If the center is over East Tennessee and we're seeing a warm sector all the way in to the West Virginia panhandle, that tells you this is a very warm storm. I don't have high hopes at this point that we stay all snow for the duration here in Central Ohio at this time. We still have three days and it wouldn't be out of the question to see this venture even further north. Any further than it is now and I have more doubts about a big snow event here.

However... if this scenario does play out, we could be in for a decent hit here in Central Ohio. Maybe even the biggest snow of the season for some.

I think if you want big snow you've got to be rooting for an overnight snow. At this point in the season the sun angle is getting high enough and warm enough to eat away at daytime snow totals.

I'll post more the closer we get with any track adjustments and eventually I'll nail down some totals.

Damaging Winds Possible Sunday

This is starting to feel like the transition from winter to spring, with strong storms moving in and the battle of cold air and warm. When we go from fall to winter, you see these storms that bring high winds and they end with some backside snow. But when we go from winter to spring, you'll see the possibility of storms. While I don't anticipate any severe storms to make it as far north as Central Ohio, we're seeing the first Moderate Risk area this year, showing up across the southeastern US:

Down there they'll most likely see the first tornado outbreak of the year.

Further north we'll have the strong wind dynamics, but without the instability. With the front passing through our area in the early morning hours tomorrow we have almost zero juice in the atmosphere to spark anything. Storms may be possible as nearby as northern Kentucky, but I don't anticipate anything tornadic.

Instead, expect a decent amount of mixing down to the surface as the front moves through early tomorrow morning and then throughout the day tomorrow. There's a strong pressure gradient between the deepening Great Lakes low and a building high coming out of the Rockies. That sets us up for our high wind event.

High Wind Watches stretch from Illinois to New England:

This is definitely a power and dynamic system. This map is colorful, with Blizzard Warnings in the Plains, Flood Watches across the South and our High Wind Watch. It'll be interesting to see if we transition to a High Wind Warning or just a Wind Advisory. Models have slowly pulled back on the severity of the wind gusts, but not only do I think it's the high winds but the duration that'll cause problems for us.

Here's just a snapshot of the NAM from 9am tomorrow morning, wind gusts close to 50mph across the northern part of the state:

I think we could go 24 straight hours with gusts over 40mph, with multiple instances throughout the day Sunday with gusts over 50mph. I think we're at a pretty high risk for power outages here in Central Ohio considering how saturated our ground is. Just this morning I noticed we have trees down from some 30mph gusts we saw earlier this week. Imagine what 50mph will do?

On top of the winds, the temps will drop from the 50s to the 20s from Sunday morning to Monday morning. Expect a couple flurries to fly late in the day Sunday as insult to injury.

I'll be tweeting as much as I can tomorrow, keeping up with what the storm is doing.

Slushy Mess for Wednesday

It's been so long that I can't remember the last time we had a winter storm that didn't bring some kind of mixed bag of precipitation. Did we have one a few weeks ago? Maybe early January? I feel like there was one in there somewhere. Probably the overachieving Clipper, right?

It feels like every single storm lately has either had sleet, freezing rain, or a change to rain that messes everything up. Here we go again tonight in to tomorrow morning with an extremely hard to pin down storm that'll hit at an awful time for travel. This time it's snow to rain, instead of the rain to snow we've already seen a couple times this winter.

This is a pretty strong system, pulling a lot of moisture from the south. If this were any further east, we would be in a mainly rain scenario, but without a ton of push from the warm sector to start, we're going to get a nice thump of snow in the beginning:

This will probably be one of the hardest storms of the season to forecast. It's going to snow, it's going to rain, but the rest could be argued. How long will it snow? How much will the rain actually melt the existing snow? Do we have a mixed/sleet event in the transition zone? Will we ever get a regular snow storm again?

So many questions.

I'll do the best to time it and give my best guess at accumulation:

TIMING
Expect light to moderate snow to start in Pickaway County by 11pm and make it to Delaware County by 1am. This is a pretty quick moving system, but precip rates should be higher than normal, meaning we have a chance at accumulating quickly.

Around 4am, expect a sleet/mix to hit Pickaway and extreme Southern Fairfield Counties. These southern extremes are the most likely areas where this mix will occur. Warm air will mix in enough the further north this storm progresses that areas along and north of I-70 will most likely see a straight snow to rain changeover.

By 6am, expect a rain/snow line right on the I-70 corridor, with rain south and snow north. This is where things could get interesting. The hour or so preceding the changeover should be when we get some of our heaviest snow. Some models suggest that progressing line kind of stalls over the I-70 area for a couple hours, right around rush hour. Couldn't really pick worse timing for this. If this transpires, it won't stall for long, and we should be all rain in Central Ohio by 9am at the latest.

RAIN IMPACTS
This will be twofold. First, I don't think temps will rise much at all during the day Wednesday. So yes, we'll changeover to all rain by mid morning, but this isn't like a sudden jump to 50° where we have no trace of snow by noon. I think the snow that falls will be a wet, heavy snow. Maybe like an 8:1 ratio, way wetter than we're used to so far this winter. So since this snow will already be a very wet snow, adding rain should make this a slushy mess by mid morning.

Then we're going to see a couple waves of moderate to heavy rain throughout the day, combined with a snow pack, should lead to a lot of runoff. The WPC and NWS aren't really overly concerned about flooding, but there's definitely going to be ponding everywhere.

SNOW AMOUNTS
So lets get to the details. How much will fall? Boy, it's going to be hard to pin down. It's going to really depend on how quick of a change over we see, where the heaviest banding sets up, and yes, exactly how low those water/snow ratios are. I hinted yesterday on Twitter that I feel like warm air always wins out in these situations, and I can't find a reason to back down from that. I think we have a change over to rain quicker than most models suggest, and the huge totals the NAM suggests are way over blown:

IMPACTS
Huge. Yes, I know it's only a little bit of snow, but having this hit right before the morning rush starts will cause dozens of accidents, school delays and a huge headache.

Take it slow tomorrow and maybe just stay home until the rain starts! It's just a little snow.

A Mixed Bag on Sunday

I just wanted to quickly post something about our low impact event coming in tomorrow. As of now I don't think we're in for anything dangerous for our area, and with it happening on a low travel day like Sunday, we hopefully shouldn't have much trouble on the roads.

Early morning is when we should expect freezing rain to start. It's the most likely period for any real impacts, although even that should be limited to ice on raised surfaces and maybe sidewalks:

Models show returns getting heavier in the afternoon, but I personally feel that by this point in the day we could even switch over to all rain:

A little movement north or south on this storm could obviously affect us, but at this point it seems like we're right back to the normal I-70 split for us.

Our next chance for snow comes Wednesday night in to Thursday, and at this point that storm appears very hard to pin down. Lots of different solutions, all depending on how strong the storm develops. I'll definitely be posting about that in the coming days.

UPDATE: Snowy Sunday

Just a couple hours before nightfall and we're looking at about an inch or more for most of Central Ohio. The assumption with yesterday's post wasn't that it wouldn't snow... but that it would be low impact since this would change to rain by tomorrow.

The impact today is productive snowfall sticking to cold surfaces. Even with the light snow we have, there are already some snow emergencies for the area:

Snow will continue through 8pm for most of the area. That could accumulate up to 2" for most areas. I think impact would be minimal by the morning commute as we would have all night to clear the roads. The problem will be precip returning from the south shortly before sunrise. Our biggest issue will be temperatures. We will be right on the boarder of freezing, meaning it'll be a hard forecast for rush hour. We could see snow, sleet, freezing rain or just plain rain. It'll be very hard to tell:

So what happens? I've illustrated 33 degrees on top of the HRRR radar simulation. That'll put us really close for a precip type. We could be above freezing above the surface, but just below on roadways. So I think we could see some icy conditions first thing tomorrow.

If this plays out, expect some school delays in the morning, and a tricky commute.

By 10am temperatures should jump and leave us with all rain. At that point we go from a tricky commute to a rainy 36 straight hours. 

Lastly, we could have another hit of snow Tuesday night. I didn't call for this yesterday as I thought moisture would move out before cold could wrap in, and I assumed warm air would return too quick. The NAM doesn't think so:

A Drenched February

I've been watching the slight possibility of us getting some accumulating snow on Sunday, but in the end it trended warmer, just like everything in the month of February it seems. We went from the last week of January being brutally cold, to the first week of February being above average in warmth and rain.

This is what we're in for probably for the foreseeable future.

First, this Sunday, we could see some flakes fly at times, but don't bank on it being an impactful snow at all. By mid morning we could see some snow, with the slight possibility of more in the evening, but as of now it looks like we might actually get dry slotted:

Even if we got some snow, it would be gone by Monday as the second part of this storm rides up the boundary and drenches us in 1-2" of rain.

This will be a drawn out storm that'll hit Sunday and stay through Tuesday. We'll see multiple types of weather; snow, rain and then more high winds. This storm will have a deep pressure gradient, bringing what will probably be our 281st high wind advisory of the year:

Usually after a strong storm system like this we would see a huge cool down on the backside, but we never really get that this time. Shortly after the low passes, high pressure builds over the Southeastern US and the southern flow comes right back.

So for this week, expect rain. Lots of rain, again, and the return of flooding. We still have very high river levels and localized low spot flooding still hasn't fully subsided. But we're right back to the rainy stuff with little chance to recover.

We have to look to next weekend for our next chance at snow. Again, this is way too far out to fully address, but know that I'll be keeping an eye on what happens once that southerly flow returns late  in the week. Models hint at a southern low that could either bring us more rain, or slide just a little east and bring us a text book App Runner.

Don't get your hopes up just yet, but in a pattern like this we have to look forward to anything that might bring us any hope of snow.

A Winter Wasteland

Remember all the snow we woke up to Friday morning? Well here we are Sunday evening and it has been nuked. Goodbye snow. Goodbye anything resembling winter. It's all going to melt away as we give way to rain and and warm temperatures.

Friday's overachieving storm dropped a solid 5-6" across much of Central Ohio, with some 4" totals in southern Pickaway and Fairfield Counties. That left us with our highest snow depth of the season after our biggest snow of the season. This is right after many hours of below zero temps. A normal clipper would have dropped 2-3", but snow ratios jumped to 20:1 and dumped on our area.

Now we only have a slight chance of getting below freezing at all this week; Tuesday night on the backside of a weak cold front. We're looking at multiple rounds of rain over the next 5 days, leading to a mud pit for the Ohio Valley.

The WPC is forecasting a swath of 4-5" of rain for the next 5 days:

We could have a pattern switch back for a brief time next weekend, but for now prepare for an early monsoon. This winter has been bipolar.

Looking At Friday Morning Snow

Today was THE COLDEST DAY IN THE HISTORY OF WEATHER. Ok, that's what people thought today when they walked outside and the wind chill was frequently dropping below -30°. Schools and colleges everywhere were closed, lots of parents stayed home with their kids, so the city was a ghost town today.

Tomorrow morning will be cold too, but no where near as bad as today. We'll see wind chills in the negative teens, and many schools are closed again. As the high pressure builds in from the west, winds will subside to 5-10mph, but temps will bottom out lower than they did today. I'd say widespread -5 to -10°. But the cold isn't even the biggest story tomorrow.

It's what kicks in tomorrow night that'll steal the headlines and really add insult to injury:

A potent clipper will push the high pressure out of our area, bringing a decent area of snow to the region Thursday night. Snow will last all the way in to rush hour Friday morning. Temps will still be low, in the teens, meaning snow will stick immediately. I think we're going to have a pretty rough morning commute Friday.

Snowfall amounts are a little high for a clipper system, pushing up to 4" in quite a few places. Here's what I'm thinking for Friday morning:

This will be a high impact event based on the fact we just had our coldest stretch of winter, and the timing. These overnight in to rush hour events always seem to cause a huge problem.

From two straight days of frigid cold to a moderate snow event, this will wrap one of the busiest stretches of winter.