December 15: Round 1

Now that we're getting in to high resolution model range it's becoming clear that Round 1 of this storm may actually be a little more impactful that originally thought. In yesterday's post I suggested this would be a light coating of snow, and then we'd begin looking ahead to Round 2. Well now the latest model runs are suggesting a more robust system that could bring a couple inches to parts of Central Ohio.

The Setup
We're around 30° this morning for much of the area, and I don't think we'll see much movement in temps throughout the day. Clouds and a cold pool of air leftover after yesterday's system has us locked in just below freezing throughout.

This should do two things: allow us to at least start as all snow tonight, and bring road surface temperatures down to near freezing so snow can stick as well. That's not a great combination.

The System Moves In

Snow should start around 9pm for our southern counties and slowly fill the area. Where the question lies is how far north this warm air aloft travels. Right now I think areas north of I-70 stay all snow tonight, while areas south could see a changeover to sleet or freezing rain for a couple hours around 3am before it all moves off before sunrise.

This will mean a slick morning commute for most. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 7am Monday for light accumulations and possible ice.

I don't have time to make a snow map for this system, but expect a widespread 1-2" around Central Ohio, with possibly as much as 3" in isolated spots south of I-70 if there isn't a changeover early tomorrow morning.

I'll be posting a lot more on Twitter as this storm approaches.