Saturday, February 9, 2019

A Drenched February

I've been watching the slight possibility of us getting some accumulating snow on Sunday, but in the end it trended warmer, just like everything in the month of February it seems. We went from the last week of January being brutally cold, to the first week of February being above average in warmth and rain.

This is what we're in for probably for the foreseeable future.

First, this Sunday, we could see some flakes fly at times, but don't bank on it being an impactful snow at all. By mid morning we could see some snow, with the slight possibility of more in the evening, but as of now it looks like we might actually get dry slotted:

Even if we got some snow, it would be gone by Monday as the second part of this storm rides up the boundary and drenches us in 1-2" of rain.

This will be a drawn out storm that'll hit Sunday and stay through Tuesday. We'll see multiple types of weather; snow, rain and then more high winds. This storm will have a deep pressure gradient, bringing what will probably be our 281st high wind advisory of the year:

Usually after a strong storm system like this we would see a huge cool down on the backside, but we never really get that this time. Shortly after the low passes, high pressure builds over the Southeastern US and the southern flow comes right back.

So for this week, expect rain. Lots of rain, again, and the return of flooding. We still have very high river levels and localized low spot flooding still hasn't fully subsided. But we're right back to the rainy stuff with little chance to recover.

We have to look to next weekend for our next chance at snow. Again, this is way too far out to fully address, but know that I'll be keeping an eye on what happens once that southerly flow returns late  in the week. Models hint at a southern low that could either bring us more rain, or slide just a little east and bring us a text book App Runner.

Don't get your hopes up just yet, but in a pattern like this we have to look forward to anything that might bring us any hope of snow.

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