SUMMARY: Clipper Dumps On Us

I should have known, and I kind of eluded to it in my last post, but this clipper had the opportunity to overachieve. We knew a deformation would setup with the frontogenesis yesterday evening, but we didn't know when and where. Well it ended up right between Dayton and Columbus. A large part of Central Ohio got between 3"-4". CMH and right here at home ended up with 3.5", by far our largest storm of the season.

The biggest total I've found reported was 4.8" in Westerville. Unofficial, though.

This storm probably went on the high side of snow:liquid ratio, I'd guess even 18:1 because of the extreme cold.

This was the first storm that was worth a look from the drone. I hope you enjoy my compilation below!

After this storm I don't see any big snowfalls on the horizon, mostly because we're about to get even colder than we have been. I can see the potential for at least three nights over the next 7 nights that temps could drop below zero. And every night should be 10 degrees or colder. We're in the grips of some of the coldest weather we've seen in years. So all of that snow we just got? It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Last Snow of 2017

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for quite a few counties here in Central Ohio in advance of our quick hitting clipper that'll make its way in to our area tonight:

The only areas really left out are around the Ohio River. Snow should use the I-70 corridor as its route, so points south may only get a dusting at best. But for us, that means we should get the brunt of it. Whatever that's worth... this is a clipper, I don't anticipate a big dump.

Snow should start for us around sunset and last most of the night. By early morning Saturday we should taper off to snow showers, but for several hours tonight we'll have a good thumping of light to moderate snowfall:

This is radar simulation from the NAM, which shows most of the moisture should be out ahead of the main disturbance. Models have honed in on 2" of new snow by noon tomorrow, and I think that's a safe bet. If anything I was burned on the last storm, so normally I would trend lower on the totals. But we're in an extremely cold airmass right now, with even colder air behind this storm, so snow:liquid ratios are going to be in the 16:1 to 18:1 neighborhood. This would support a solid 2" over several hours of light snow in a normal situation. However I think we're going to see a couple hours of more moderate snowfall somewhere around Ohio as frontogenesis develops ahead of the main system. That area, where ever it develops, could see something more along the line of 3", easily.

Another storm where I won't be making a snowfall map, because I think for Central Ohio it'll be a pretty uniform gradient except where ever that heavier band sets up. Expect everyone to hit 2", which would also make it our biggest snowfall of the season.

Oh yeah, and then get ready for colder air. Even colder than we've experienced lately. As in the potential for below zero readings on New Year's Eve. Brace yourselves everyone, the arctic is evacuating to Ohio.

Coldest Morning of 2017?

By some definitions, we did end up with a White Christmas for most of Central Ohio. CMH reported 0.8" of new snow Christmas Eve in to early Christmas Day, and I ended up with 0.5" in Canal Winchester. Dayton and Cincinnati ended up with a little more than us, but overall it's safe to say that everyone saw something. By the one inch on the ground definition, we missed out. But I'd say since it's been 7 years since we saw that, I think most people will just be happy that there was anything at all.

Franklin County was added to the Winter Weather Advisory on Sunday, and that was a mistake. I think the NWS just threw that out there because of the potential to snarl traffic on a holiday.

But as that cold air began to pour in to the area Christmas morning we felt the first real arctic cold of the Winter season. We've pretty much been on a gradual trend downward since Sunday night, and we hit rock bottom this morning with a low temp at my house of 4°. Some places like Columbus and Dayton had their coldest morning of all of 2017. That's rare, considering January traditionally sees our coldest temps, especially in to the second week of the year. So we're a few weeks early with the extreme cold.

But it's not over.

There's a chance we go NYE in to New Year's Day with the coldest temps of the season so far, if you believe the latest Euro run:

Without much wind, we won't have a wind chill warning that morning, but perhaps an advisory.

Check back again tomorrow or Friday as I'll discuss one last snow of 2017!

White Christmas: It's Happening!

After days of model after model run hinting at some light snow for Christmas Eve in to Christmas Day, it's finally happening. An inch of rain the past couple days left the ground warm, but the cool down to below freezing temps for the foreseeable future has opened the door to storm systems to bring snow!

Here's a look at the NAM for 1pm tomorrow with an approaching shortwave, spreading snow in mostly northern Ohio:

For areas north of that dotted line, we should see a decent 3-4" of snow, and those areas will get more prolonged snow. I feel safe to make the prediction that Central Ohio will see 2" of snow. There's the potential if this storm moves further south we could see more, but I think 2" is a safe bet for us.

It's a Christmas miracle, we should see our first White Christmas since 2010! Merry Christmas everyone!

White Christmas: Chances Increase for Light Snow

As time has allowed models to come in to better agreement on storm setups, I don't think we have a chance at a major winter storm for Christmas this year. But I don't think we can completely rule out some flakes flying.

If you remember my last post, I said there would be a major southern low that warmed things up around here before we came crashing down. Then I said another storm would approach. It's that second storm that at this time appears to be much weaker in nature than originally thought.

Let's start with the first system, which will enter our area Friday night and bring rain on Saturday:

 This is from the Euro, and it shows more of an eastward track, instead of northeast. That matters, because the GFS doesn't go this route. With the northeastward track we would have precip around longer, so when the cold air crashes in, we could see snow changeover. The GFS I think overdoes this a little with 3-5" of snow by Christmas Eve day in northwest Ohio. The Euro shows a brief changeover in southeast Ohio as it exits.

So placement and direction is everything.

On the other hand, the GFS doesn't even recognize the second system that the Euro picks up on, which is what could bring light snow showers Christmas Day:

I'm not at the point where I trust the GFS and its snow statement from Saturday afternoon, so I'm sticking with the Euro on this one. I think we see some festive flakes Sunday night in to Monday, but accumulations should stay light. There's still a chance this shortwave Christmas Day is more potent than models think right now and we get an over achieving system, but I wouldn't count on it.

As of now, expect a warm and wet Friday in to Saturday, a sharp cool down, and snow showers in to the holiday.

White Christmas: It'll Be Close

We haven't had a white Christmas here in Central Ohio in 7 years. In that time, Christmas Days have been memorably unmemorable in the weather department. For travel that's a great thing. Everyone's getting to their destinations locally with minimal interruptions over the past several years. But for me, I'd rather we get a little of the white stuff on the ground, even if it occurs days before. As long as we wake up with at least an inch on the ground Christmas morning, it's considered a success.

So if you've read #WxTwitter any lately, or even listening in to TV personalities, there seems to be some hype for the upcoming 7-10 days. And with good reason!

After a rather active pattern over the past week, we've hit a lull lately. In fact, we're hitting a stretch of 4-5 days where we should go progressively above average for temps. This is all leading up to the aforementioned hype near the holiday weekend.

Looking toward next Saturday, a very sharp temperature anomoly contrast across the country presents itself. That's because an insanely strong arctic blast will come down out of Canada, with a low pressure developinng somewhere along the southern Plains and making its way northeastward. The question would be... where?

If anyone tells you they know exactly where this system will develop and track, they're making it up as they go. Models are honing in on a consensus, but this is anything but a sure thing. The temp anomoly map is the Euro from December 23rd, and while it shows a good depiction of where the warm air should rush out ahead of the system, there's still not certainty about anything after that.

The next map I'm going to show you is from the day after Christmas. It looks like the cold air has deepened over the midwest, but hasn't moved an awful lot. That's because as of now, it looks like the first system will move north and get caught back up in Canada, leaving another system the chance to develop on the tail end of the first front:

So if things play out the way they're looking now, this will be a multi-day event. Will it be rain or snow for us? Will we get a White Christmas or a cold and rainy one? I think it's way too soon to say for sure, but I'll definitely be following it closely. Keep checking back for more updates on the progress of the models and forecasting.

And for people like me... keep your fingers crossed this thing trends colder and further east!

This Clipper Is A Dud

I won't waste too many words on this one. The clipper flying through our region tonight will bring some gusts and a reinforcing shot of cold air, but I don't see much in the way of snow tonight. At least not in Central Ohio. Northern Ohio is a different story, where they have their first Winter Weather Advisory of the season and could see over 3" in most spots. This is a potent clipper, but it's staying too far north for us to get in on the action.

The 7pm radar simulation for the HRRR seems to understand the dry lower levels of the atmosphere, as it keeps us dry for the most part south of I-70.

Even the radar right now is showing moisture as the initial "warm front" gusts through. But, nothing's falling:

I'd say our only chance will be from that pocket behind the main line later tonight, but even that seems unlikely for more than a dusting tonight.

We'll take a breather after this, waiting for another potential storm on Sunday.

QUICK UPDATE: Prepare for Squalls

So the snow I highlighted yesterday that seemed to "disappear" from the latest model runs actually appeared in the early morning hours. In Canal Winchester, we started as a light freezing rain for only a very short time before changing to sleet, and then snow by sunrise. That was enough to probably bring a quarter inch of snow.

The sun came out for a short time, melting off much of what fell, even though temps continued to drop. Since sunrise we've dropped 6 degrees, with single digit wind chills common in these gusty conditions.

But what we should watch out for this afternoon and in to the evening rush is the possibility of some heavy snow squalls from this fetch off of Lake Michigan. I've highlighted in red the general motion of these squalls this morning, compared to what we should see as the afternoon goes on in green:

As I said yesterday, the conditions are just right with these high winds coming across the lakes and stretching the snow as far as east Central Ohio in to this evening. By nightfall, these winds should back off, and so should the snow showers. Just be very careful headed home today, as these squalls will be enough to bring visibility down to 0 in some places. Bad timing for rush hour.

I'll post tomorrow about tomorrow night's storm.

UPCOMING: More Squalls

I wouldn't say we're in for a lot of snow over the next couple days, but it feels like we have a lot of chances for snow.

A couple days ago this incoming clipper seemed like it may bring more snow than the Saturday one we had. I was thinking this one may pack a bigger punch, bringing possibly 2+". Well, this storm will be more powerful, as it begins to bomb out as it heads toward the coast and brings gusty winds tomorrow in to Wednesday morning. But as you'll see below, an area I thought would have more moisture is pretty empty on the latest NAM simulated radar:

However, you'll notice behind the main push of the clipper an area of lake enhanced snow coming off of Lake Michigan. It takes a pretty strong flow off the lakes to bring bands this far south and east, but tomorrow may be one of the few times a year the environment will be just right. 

If the original area had developed overnight tonight, I think we could be waking up to half an inch tomorrow. Instead we saw a Special Weather Statement from the NWS this afternoon highlighting the chance for some freezing drizzle in the morning. I think that chance is very slim. Instead, I think the threat will still be the chance for some light snow overnight, followed by the chance of some heavy snow squalls throughout the day and very gusty winds.

So how much accumulation could we have? It's hard to tell. It'll all depend on where the bands off of the lake setup. Look at this snowfall model showing huge local differences:

So I say on average we should see half an inch of snow over Central Ohio over the next 24 hours. And then get ready for more on Wednesday night, which I'll talk more about after this system. Sure is an active period!

SUMMARY: It Did Snow

This storm didn't over or under achieve. It was exactly what we thought for our first snow of the season, just about an inch everywhere in Central Ohio. Here's the totals from the NWS:

Franklin County...
   2 S Downtown Columbu   1.5   800 PM 12/09  Public                  
   KCMH John Glenn Cbus   1.4   651 PM 12/09  ASOS                    
   Clintonville           1.3   719 PM 12/09  Public                  
   1 NNW KTZR Bolton Fi   1.0   830 PM 12/09  Trained Spotter         
   Canal Winchester       1.0   711 PM 12/09  Trained Spotter         
   6 WSW Downtown Colum   0.7   625 PM 12/09  Public                  
   Hilliard               0.5   333 PM 12/09  Public

Pickaway County...
   1 NNW Circleville      1.0  1001 PM 12/09  Dept of Transportation

Fairfield County...
   2 SSW Lancaster        0.5   629 PM 12/09  Dept of Transportation

Delaware County...
   Sunbury                1.1   857 PM 12/09  Broadcast Media         
   3 NNE Westerville      1.1   836 PM 12/09  Social Media            
   N Delaware             0.5   408 PM 12/09  Public

Licking County...
   5 SSE Heath            0.3   909 PM 12/09  Dept of Transportation

I ended up with 1.25" here in Canal Winchester, accumulating over several hours yesterday. We only saw a couple of heavier bands that lasted for a short time, so we never got those pockets of 2"+ around town.

While I didn't have time to get my drone out for some sky shots of the snow, this is the timelapse of the snow covering up my roof cam:

Next up, another chance of snow tomorrow night in to Tuesday. As of now I think the heavier accumulations stay north of us as the clipper moves more through the Great Lakes, but I'll update tomorrow with details.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
November: 0" (Predicted: 0")
December: 1.25" (Predicted: 1")

Season: 1.25"

First Snow of '17-'18 Season

Here it comes, a quick hitting clipper across the lakes will bring us our first measurable snow of the season.

It doesn't present as much on radar, but I think this has the potential to overachieve for some people. Do I mean huge totals? No. Just in the sense that I don't expect more than an inch for everyone, and a band could come off Lake Michigan later that drops another inch.

This entire area is actually going to begin to rotate later today as this interacts with the east coast system. The snow you see on radar right now over Lake Michigan is going to rotate down in to our area after dark. This should be an off and on all day and night snow for us, so if some areas reach two inches, I wouldn't be surprised. However for now, I'm staying conservative and saying one inch for Central Ohio.

UPDATE: First Accumulation of the Season Expected Saturday

We're a little over 48 hours out from a clipper diving through the area Saturday and more than likely giving most of us our first coating of snow of the season. While I wouldn't expect this to be anything more than a light accumulation, the trends are bringing the low pressure further and further south with each model run. The further south that tracks, the higher our totals.

The latest NAM depicts a light snow across the area Saturday afternoon:

The scattered nature is what should keep totals low for Central Ohio, and further north it's a more solid distribution, leading to over an inch.

Speaking of totals, NWS Wilmington put this out this morning:

I think this is a good reference point for what the accumulation gradient should look like, but I don't think this forecast should be considered official just yet. Again, if that low pressure dives any further south, parts of Columbus could get closer to that 1-2" range.

I'll finalize my forecast tomorrow and post again then.

Ok, Now Here Comes Winter

Have you enjoyed the warm temps the past few days? So far every day has hit 50° in December, which is a very warm rarity. But that changes now. Here comes the much advertised cold from that'll bring permanent winter air our way:

Expect gusts up to 40mph this afternoon and temps dropping to the 30s before sunset. That'll be a shock to the system to some of these warm weather lovers around here. For people like me? I know what it means.

SNOW.

Ok, don't get too excited. This doesn't mean we'll get 12" in the next week. But little bouts of snow showers could be possible a couple times in the near future:

Wednesday

Nothing much to see here. There's a chance of flurries as the cold air spills in behind today's cold front.

Saturday

Even with it being several days out, there's a pretty good consensus with models that we should see a clipper dive through the Great Lakes Friday night in to Saturday. Again, I'm not thinking this is a huge event by any means, but a quick inch wouldn't be out of the question:

Beyond that I'm thinking we could see another clipper a couple days later. That's way too far out to track just yet, but the point I'm making is the pattern is finally here. After weeks of nothingness, we're active and cold. 

As far out as 10 days away we're still in a very cold pattern, too. Continuous reinforcing shots of cold air are spilling in behind each clipper, keeping us a solid 10-15° below normal. The combination of cold and activeness should lead to some light snow once every 2-3 days as long as this pattern continues. 

Good news for us snow lovers, bad news for everyone else.