Active But Fast Pattern

Last night began the first of many disturbances we'll see over the next couple weeks. We only saw about a half an inch, but it was enough to cause some school delays this morning.

I think tonight's showers will be more of the same. Perhaps a half an inch, a lot of slick spots with extra cold temperatures, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some more school delays in the morning.

For a few days the real show has been with Wednesday's storm. We're looking at a southern low that has the potential to give us the kind of decent snow we haven't seen all winter. The potential. Not saying it absolutely will happen, but this setup is a very moist one.

This low will come from Louisiana in to a cold airmass, with a strong southern flow from the Gulf:

What does that mean? Lots of Gulf moisture and over riding warmth. The setup is there for ice, snow, rain... all? Some?

It's the typical southern low. The margin for error for snow accumulations or even ice is so narrow, we could take a guess at it tonight but I just don't think it's worth it.

Here's now the Euro looks for Wednesday morning which pretty much tells the story:

I can't even tell you how textbook this looks right now. Probably every southern low has had this model signature at some point in its maturity. Our typical I-71 benchmark for snow/ice, which would normally put the area just north of I-71 in the high snowfall zone. That's how it looks for now. I think this storm has the potential to overachieve, as this is the first time this winter I've seen a storm tap in to the Gulf quite like this with a decent High over the Atlantic.

However... does this surge of warmth and moisture lead to a rainier scenario? I'm not ready to make that call until tomorrow!