First Snow: DRY SLOTTED!

It's kind of a kick in the face that our first legitimate threat of snow this season will show us stuck in the dreaded dry slot. I've put off writing this entry all day because I wanted to see more runs of the high res models before deciding we're gonna be stuck between two areas of precip.

By 11pm tonight the HRRR looks like this:

What you can't really tell here is even when precip does work in to the area, we're going to be in an interesting situation with precip type. Surface temps should definitely be supportive of snow, but a layer aloft may cause some sleet and freezing drizzle to fall. Nothing catastrophic, but an ugly overnight for sure.

I don't think this is a notable first snow at all, but I decided to put together our first snow map of the season anyway:

There's a chance perhaps that the northwest could get as much as an inch, if that northern stream of precip dives just far enough south. It's even possible extreme southeastern Pickaway doesn't see any snow at all, as they may stay a hair above freezing.

While this isn't a measure-worthy event for the area, the timing could cause a slick morning commute.

We'll be looking ahead to a better shot of the wintry stuff later in the week.

Quick Look: First Snow

I just wanted to put something quick together talking about our potential for the first snow of the season Monday night in to Tuesday morning.

This is looking like our typical southern low, with us on the northern edge of precip here in Central Ohio:

Above is the Euro early Tuesday morning. This is a textbook I-71 split for the area, with a mix along the corridor, snow north of it and rain south. That's how the Euro has it playing out right now, but as we get more runs on the high res models I think we'll be able to determine specifics sometime tomorrow.

TIMING
I think this could be bad for the morning commute on Tuesday. Precip will start as rain right around rush hour Monday evening before changing over to snow sometime overnight. Snow will stop right around rush hour Tuesday morning, but waking up to a light coating of snow will really make the morning drive rough. The first snow always brings out the worst in drivers in Central Ohio for some reason.

I'll post tomorrow a more in depth look at how much snow and where it'll fall.

Busy Week of Multiple Storm Systems

Halloween ended up being better than expected, with areas north and west of I-71 staying mostly dry for the evening, and only some light showers south and east. Last year we dealt with cold, this year rain. Maybe we'll have snow next year?

Ok, I would like it. The kids wouldn't.

Now that we're in to November, snow is fair game though, and we may have our first chance at flakes near the end of this week. First we have to get through a windy, possibly stormy, start to the week.

A cold front will try to pass through the area tonight, but instead will wash out and dissipate in Indiana. We'll see some showers overnight and in to tomorrow morning, but without the front clearing the area, temps should stay up tonight.

I believe this system directly influences the path of the next one. If this front is able to pass further east, it'll set up how far and strong the next system will be Monday in to Tuesday. If I would have written this entry a few days ago, I'd be telling you we will have an extremely dangerous storm moving in. But the models have really backed off on the intensity and instability with this storm.

The NAM still shows this could be a potent storm:

Most models have the low dropping to a sub 990mb by the time it crosses the Great Lakes, but previous runs had it going sub 980mb. So we may have dodged a bullet when it comes to the intensity. I still think it'll be gusty post-frontal passage on Tuesday, and we could see a healthy squall line Monday night in to early Tuesday morning, but the likelihood of that seems lower now. Areas south of the Ohio River probably have a better shot at severe weather.

Even with this being a huge storm system, temps won't really drop off that much after Tuesday. That is, until our next front passes through near the end of the week. The system itself isn't going to be all that powerful. It'll be more of a southern low, but it's just a result of the massive arctic air that'll be filtering down from Canada.

On Saturday, temps 20° below average will be centered over the Plains:

That northwesterly flow that brings in all the cold air will also setup our first lake effect of the season. That's when we could see some flakes flying next weekend.

I'm not going to go too in depth this far out, but expect another post as we get closer to next weekend. The cold is coming!

Will Halloween Be A Rain-Out?

When I was a kid we didn't have to ask what night Trick Or Treating was. It was always Halloween night. We didn't even have a time range for going out, everyone just kind of knew and went out. By the time I was old enough to have a kid of my own I had to rely on the news because every community seemed to have a different night for beggars. Luckily this year I feel like most everyone settled on Halloween night here in Central Ohio. The problem with that? Well... it's gonna rain.

We've known for a few days we could have a high precipitation event this week, but it appears we're settling on a Wednesday through Friday timeframe now. The NWS already has a Flood Watch out for the entire area:

A front will quickly move in from the west tomorrow before hitting the brakes over the area and stalling out. Where it stalls out will determine whether we have a rain-out tomorrow night or not.

Right now there are two solutions for tomorrow evening, and neither solution looks like a 100% washout. But does the front stall directly over I-71, or move down more along the Ohio River? If it dives further south, we may have a completely rain free evening. If not? It's scattered showers, with heavier embedded cells possible:

The HRRR pictured favors the northern solution, which means it'll definitely rain... but how much and how constant? Earlier runs of the NAM had all of the rain south of us, but now the newest run matches back up with the HRRR. I'm leaving the southern solution out there as a possibility just because it's been shown before, and it could still happen. It all depends how far south and east this front pushes before becoming stationary.

Once it does stall, you see that slug of precip in Missouri in the model above? Expect a couple rounds of those through Wednesday night and Thursday before we finally get a push from a low that'll ride along the boundary and finally push this system out of here on Friday:

By Friday afternoon we could actually see some sun and a break in the rain for the whole weekend. A drastic change from what we'll see coming up. Expect 2-4" widespread with this system, with road and small stream flooding not just possible by likely.

It'll be a wet Halloween, but here's to hoping it isn't a total washout for us.

Weekend of Rain

Oh if only this were January. Then our wet weekend of storms would actually be a weekend of decent snows. Today and tomorrow we'll get hit with a double barrel low that becomes a coastal storm. Parts of northern New England will get their first decent snow of the season from this. If we saw this on the Euro in January, we'd be ready for snow:

Instead, get ready for a soggy evening tonight and some leftover showers tomorrow. Temps are going to be on a very slow climb from the low 40s Friday morning to near 50° by midnight. Come on. Just knock 20° off of that! Don't expect much temperature deviation on Saturday as our storm becomes a coastal low, we may stay at 50° all day.

And then by Sunday we'll see a quick hitting clipper system! Now you KNOW that would have brought us snow in January. Instead, more showers:

We're in a very active pattern for the next week or two, so our rain chances will be high, but as we get in to November we should eventually end this pattern with our first snow chances. I'm looking toward the very beginning on the second week of November for something slightly measurable.

Until then, get ready for wet and cold.