Round 2 - November 15th

We got a little more ice here in Central Ohio than I was anticipating last night, but nothing that truly stuck to the roads and caused major problems. Instead it was tree icing that caused most of our problems, with many tree branches snapping under the weight and pulling down power lines.

Weighted pine trees were a pretty common site:

Areas west were hit much harder. Sometime last night they were changed over to an Ice Storm Warning, the first one issued in the Wilmington warning area since 2014. They were able to get just cold enough overnight that some of that moderate rain froze to the roads.

But now we're on the backside and the cold air is rushing in to higher levels of the atmosphere. That's why it's currently 34.5° where I am with wet snow beginning to fall. We're warmer than we were overnight, but the atmosphere is just right for snow to fall.

Most of Central Ohio should change over to primarily snow before sunset, and the back end of the upper low, shown above, should enhance snowfall sometime overnight.

I don't think we're looking at a huge event tonight, but half an inch isn't out of the question. Another issue tonight will be some of the refreezing of all that rain we got today. Between refreezing and a little snow, we may have another tricky morning of travel tomorrow. Take it slow!

Winter Storm - November 15th

It's our first winter storm of the season here in Central Ohio:

Winter Weather Advisories reach from the Gulf Coast to Upstate New York with this system which promises to bring snow and ice to a large section of the eastern US. Let's see what we're dealing with tonight.

The Setup
We've got a double barrel southern low on our hands, but luckily not a very powerful one. The western low will move almost due north before transferring to the coast to amplify the eastern low. Before it dies off, our eastern low will do a good enough job pushing warm air up and over our cold air that has been entrenched here for several days.

It's a decent setup for some ice in the overnight hours, but the when and where are really hard to pin down for sure.

Prediction
I just don't see this playing out to be a storm to talk too much about. 24 hours ago it had my attention. It was looking like we could see some snow and a little ice. Now this is shifting towards a mostly ice event, and those almost never pan out around here. Here's why:

I don't think temps drop very low. Yes, we'll get to freezing, perhaps to 30° or 31° for a short time, but I think this surge of warm air aloft gets deep enough to influence surface temps. It's almost 4pm and we're still only at 31°, but I think we stay steady after the sun sets.We would need surfaces to get much cooler to really contribute to ice growth.

Snow almost seems out of the question. Everything is pointing to precip type falling as rain during the whole event. Perhaps early on, the first hour or so when precip is light, we could see snowflakes, but nothing accumulative. By sunrise temps will rise just enough above freezing that we'll eventually just be in a cold rain scenario.

It'll be tomorrow evening as the storm system moves out and the upper low barrels in from the west that we might see a changeover to snow, but even then it probably wouldn't be more than a dusting.

I officially say we get a light glaze on elevated surfaces by sunrise, roads stay primarily wet, and we may see a few school delays. This one will be a snoozer.

First Look: Thursday Winter Storm

It's looking more and more like we might have our first legitimate winter storm coming in Wednesday night in to Thursday. I talked about this at the end of my last post, but with each new model run it's looking like this goes from a glancing blow to something a little more serious.

When the Euro starts showing those purple and oranges, that's cause for concern for something a little worse than a few flakes. This could be our first icing of the season, with a setup I can't remember seeing in quite a while. When we see southern lows, usually they ride up the Appalachians or northeast through the Ohio Valley. This one is taking an almost due north track before turning east, which will definitely be a challenge to forecast.

As of now it's the Euro that's a little more aggressive with the cold air in the lower levels, causing it to hint at an icing event. The GFS just wants to push this as an all warm system.

We're about 36 hours out on this thing, so pinpointing when and where would be pretty hard to say, but I think we could have a very messy commute Thursday morning.

Precip will work in to the area late Wednesday night. At this time I think temps will be below freezing, so it's just a matter of what we're working with in the layers of the atmosphere before I can say for sure if it'll be snow, sleet or freezing rain.

I think we may see Advisories posted sometime overnight going in to tomorrow in prep for this system. I'll go in depth tomorrow with my post. Winter begins!

First Snow: DRY SLOTTED!

It's kind of a kick in the face that our first legitimate threat of snow this season will show us stuck in the dreaded dry slot. I've put off writing this entry all day because I wanted to see more runs of the high res models before deciding we're gonna be stuck between two areas of precip.

By 11pm tonight the HRRR looks like this:

What you can't really tell here is even when precip does work in to the area, we're going to be in an interesting situation with precip type. Surface temps should definitely be supportive of snow, but a layer aloft may cause some sleet and freezing drizzle to fall. Nothing catastrophic, but an ugly overnight for sure.

I don't think this is a notable first snow at all, but I decided to put together our first snow map of the season anyway:

There's a chance perhaps that the northwest could get as much as an inch, if that northern stream of precip dives just far enough south. It's even possible extreme southeastern Pickaway doesn't see any snow at all, as they may stay a hair above freezing.

While this isn't a measure-worthy event for the area, the timing could cause a slick morning commute.

We'll be looking ahead to a better shot of the wintry stuff later in the week.

Quick Look: First Snow

I just wanted to put something quick together talking about our potential for the first snow of the season Monday night in to Tuesday morning.

This is looking like our typical southern low, with us on the northern edge of precip here in Central Ohio:

Above is the Euro early Tuesday morning. This is a textbook I-71 split for the area, with a mix along the corridor, snow north of it and rain south. That's how the Euro has it playing out right now, but as we get more runs on the high res models I think we'll be able to determine specifics sometime tomorrow.

TIMING
I think this could be bad for the morning commute on Tuesday. Precip will start as rain right around rush hour Monday evening before changing over to snow sometime overnight. Snow will stop right around rush hour Tuesday morning, but waking up to a light coating of snow will really make the morning drive rough. The first snow always brings out the worst in drivers in Central Ohio for some reason.

I'll post tomorrow a more in depth look at how much snow and where it'll fall.

Busy Week of Multiple Storm Systems

Halloween ended up being better than expected, with areas north and west of I-71 staying mostly dry for the evening, and only some light showers south and east. Last year we dealt with cold, this year rain. Maybe we'll have snow next year?

Ok, I would like it. The kids wouldn't.

Now that we're in to November, snow is fair game though, and we may have our first chance at flakes near the end of this week. First we have to get through a windy, possibly stormy, start to the week.

A cold front will try to pass through the area tonight, but instead will wash out and dissipate in Indiana. We'll see some showers overnight and in to tomorrow morning, but without the front clearing the area, temps should stay up tonight.

I believe this system directly influences the path of the next one. If this front is able to pass further east, it'll set up how far and strong the next system will be Monday in to Tuesday. If I would have written this entry a few days ago, I'd be telling you we will have an extremely dangerous storm moving in. But the models have really backed off on the intensity and instability with this storm.

The NAM still shows this could be a potent storm:

Most models have the low dropping to a sub 990mb by the time it crosses the Great Lakes, but previous runs had it going sub 980mb. So we may have dodged a bullet when it comes to the intensity. I still think it'll be gusty post-frontal passage on Tuesday, and we could see a healthy squall line Monday night in to early Tuesday morning, but the likelihood of that seems lower now. Areas south of the Ohio River probably have a better shot at severe weather.

Even with this being a huge storm system, temps won't really drop off that much after Tuesday. That is, until our next front passes through near the end of the week. The system itself isn't going to be all that powerful. It'll be more of a southern low, but it's just a result of the massive arctic air that'll be filtering down from Canada.

On Saturday, temps 20° below average will be centered over the Plains:

That northwesterly flow that brings in all the cold air will also setup our first lake effect of the season. That's when we could see some flakes flying next weekend.

I'm not going to go too in depth this far out, but expect another post as we get closer to next weekend. The cold is coming!