Columbus Winter by the Numbers

It's April 2nd, and while snow isn't completely out of the question in April, I think it's safe to say this year we won't be seeing accumulation again in 2017 until sometime near the end of the year.

According to the measurements out at John Glenn (going to be hard not calling it Port Columbus), we ended up with 9.3" of snow for the season. Going back to 1930, the first full year of record keeping, that would put is in 6th place for least snowiest seasons here in Columbus. Keep in mind, the NWS considers "snow seasons" to be July to July, not just inside of the winter months.

Since record keeping started, our average last day with 1" or more of snow accumulation has been March 10th, which means I feel pretty confident in saying, especially this year, we're done with the snow. But as recently as 2005, we saw accumulating snow as late as April 24th! But, keep in mind, we also had 37" of snow that season. This season is just a little different.

We should still expect the occasional freezing temp. We average the middle of April for seeing our last morning below freezing, but just last year we went all the way to May 16th with freezing temps!

With the April sun getting higher in the sky, days are longer and any snow that could potentially fall would really have to happen in the overnight hours. Even if we start the day cold, any storms that come in to our region would just be fighting against the sun to accumulate any snow.

So instead of looking for white on the ground, get ready for some storms to roll across the horizon. We're officially in severe season!

March 26th Got Severe!

Yesterday we were under a marginal risk for severe weather, and I honestly don't think anyone (weather nerd or not) thought too much of it.

Yesterday was also the first day of a multi-day radar outage in Wilmington, where our main radar for the region is. These two events combined made for bad timing.

The first tornado siren sounded around 7:14pm last night, and the west side of Columbus got awful dark. I sent my drone up shortly after that, but being so far east made it hard to see any cloud formations or rotation.

Using the CMH terminal radar I was able to watch as the storms moved in near Hilliard and moved toward Westerville slowly.

This didn't present well on radar because... well, we didn't have much of a radar to go off of. In the end, no reports of a touchdown in Franklin County. Just a noisy, early Spring evening.

Timing is Everything

We have another shot at some wintry precip tomorrow morning, and with this small round... timing is everything. By sunrise tomorrow we'll see a freezing rain and snow mix moving in:

We'll still be below freezing for a few hours after sunrise, so whatever falls could cause a mess. Here's where the timing comes in:

If precip starts earlier, it'll be in the overnight. We should have enough cold air still aloft to allow precip to fall as all snow. That would effect rush hour more negatively, and bring more school delays and closings. 

If it falls right as the sun's coming up, that warmer air is rushing in over our cold lower levels, meaning some light freezing rain. It's also starting right at rush hour, which brings its own set of issues.

If this is just a couple hours late, we're in March. That gives the March sun a couple hours head start to warm the entire column, meaning we're probably just looking at a rain event.

If I were a betting man, I'd lean towards an earlier solution. These clipper-like systems always seem to run a little faster than models suggest, which means be prepared for a little bit of a dicey commute tomorrow.

Good Job, Lancaster

Can anyone confirm the 3" that was reported in Lancaster from the overnight snow? Everyone else saw roughly an inch, and somehow Lancaster - the common area that misses out on snow - got the most in our area!

Maybe an Inch Or Two

I put off as long as I could posting predictions for tonight in to tomorrow because I just couldn't believe how sold the models were on a dry slot forming directly over Central Ohio.

Then again it shouldn't surprise me. We've missed out on everything else this winter. Why not this storm, too?

Pay no attention to the actual totals on this model, this is what the HRRR has been depicting for several hours now:

That's right. A monster dry wedge right up the US23 corridor. If you believe the HRRR, that means by daybreak tomorrow we would barely have a dusting. 

I believe we will wake up with half an inch across all Central Ohio counties, and accumulate another half an inch during the day tomorrow. I don't think this will be a serious event for us at all. Some schools may delay or close tomorrow in the more rural areas, but this Winter Weather Advisory they have for points along and north of I-70 seems overdone to me.

Feel free to post pictures and snow reports as it happens!