March 26th Got Severe!

Yesterday we were under a marginal risk for severe weather, and I honestly don't think anyone (weather nerd or not) thought too much of it.

Yesterday was also the first day of a multi-day radar outage in Wilmington, where our main radar for the region is. These two events combined made for bad timing.

The first tornado siren sounded around 7:14pm last night, and the west side of Columbus got awful dark. I sent my drone up shortly after that, but being so far east made it hard to see any cloud formations or rotation.

Using the CMH terminal radar I was able to watch as the storms moved in near Hilliard and moved toward Westerville slowly.

This didn't present well on radar because... well, we didn't have much of a radar to go off of. In the end, no reports of a touchdown in Franklin County. Just a noisy, early Spring evening.

Timing is Everything

We have another shot at some wintry precip tomorrow morning, and with this small round... timing is everything. By sunrise tomorrow we'll see a freezing rain and snow mix moving in:

We'll still be below freezing for a few hours after sunrise, so whatever falls could cause a mess. Here's where the timing comes in:

If precip starts earlier, it'll be in the overnight. We should have enough cold air still aloft to allow precip to fall as all snow. That would effect rush hour more negatively, and bring more school delays and closings. 

If it falls right as the sun's coming up, that warmer air is rushing in over our cold lower levels, meaning some light freezing rain. It's also starting right at rush hour, which brings its own set of issues.

If this is just a couple hours late, we're in March. That gives the March sun a couple hours head start to warm the entire column, meaning we're probably just looking at a rain event.

If I were a betting man, I'd lean towards an earlier solution. These clipper-like systems always seem to run a little faster than models suggest, which means be prepared for a little bit of a dicey commute tomorrow.

Good Job, Lancaster

Can anyone confirm the 3" that was reported in Lancaster from the overnight snow? Everyone else saw roughly an inch, and somehow Lancaster - the common area that misses out on snow - got the most in our area!

Maybe an Inch Or Two

I put off as long as I could posting predictions for tonight in to tomorrow because I just couldn't believe how sold the models were on a dry slot forming directly over Central Ohio.

Then again it shouldn't surprise me. We've missed out on everything else this winter. Why not this storm, too?

Pay no attention to the actual totals on this model, this is what the HRRR has been depicting for several hours now:

That's right. A monster dry wedge right up the US23 corridor. If you believe the HRRR, that means by daybreak tomorrow we would barely have a dusting. 

I believe we will wake up with half an inch across all Central Ohio counties, and accumulate another half an inch during the day tomorrow. I don't think this will be a serious event for us at all. Some schools may delay or close tomorrow in the more rural areas, but this Winter Weather Advisory they have for points along and north of I-70 seems overdone to me.

Feel free to post pictures and snow reports as it happens!

Central Ohio's Pre-Nor'easter Snow

In my last post I told everyone to keep an eye on that Monday to Tuesday time frame coming up for a chance of some accumulating March snow. Here we are less than 24 hours out, and I think we have a good idea what could happen.

The Setup
The Nor'easter will be a mix of a clipper-like system dropping out of the Plains, and a northern Gulf system riding up the coast, phasing in to a bombed out storm. What'll bring our snow chances is the Plains system.

Here's an animation of the Euro model showing how the low will actually "die down" as it passed our area. That's because the actual low pressure center is phasing to the east coast. It's during this weakening trend that we could see lower snow totals, before one more ramp up of snow as this strengthens and becomes the Nor'easter:

So then the question becomes, where does the snow fall? Because right now it's a narrow rain/snow line that could be the difference in a few inches and nothing but rain.

Just about everyone may start as rain early tomorrow afternoon, before a rain/snow line will setup around 5pm in our I-71 corridor we always see as a line:

As of now this is where I feel like the freezing line might set up. Areas just south of this line may still see wet snow, but it may not stick for the first few hours. This line would sit here in to the overnight, before we go to all snow to the south and everything sticks.

What concerns me for snowfall sticking is that patch of dark blue in southeastern Ohio and West Virginia. We see this area staying warmer for almost every low that passes south of us. How far north does that venture during the day Monday? 

From experience, it always lingers farther north and for a longer time than most models ever suggest. That means for now I'm being pessimistic on snowfall totals for our area. This is also why I'm going to wait until tomorrow to make a snowfall map. For now lets just assume Lancaster and points southeast would be 1" and smaller. Dublin and northwest could be 2" or greater. For now.

I'll post with more granular totals tomorrow!