First Potential Snow - One Day Out

Now that we're within 24 hours of a potential snow, boy did a lot of people start speculating that we would get a decent accumulation out of this. Starting late last night in to midday today I saw a lot of posts saying, "models show accumulation tomorrow!"

Nothing's changed. So then why all the posts? Well, it's the first storm of the season, and high res models started to pick up the storm. So any model watchers immediately jumped at the first 30 hour model from the HRRR they saw.

Our storm system is finally coming together tonight, with a southern and a northern stream on their way to merging over our area tomorrow:

The Forecast:
Expect scattered rain showers this evening before the storm really comes together in to widespread rain by tomorrow morning, sometime after rush hour. Then things get interesting.:

You'll notice at the end of the loop a small area of precip changing over to snow. That'll grow, but the real question will be how quick it changes over, and for how long before the precip ends.

Unfortunately I don't think the whole area sees accumulating snow, or even snow flakes at all. Western Ohio gets the transition with the cold air coming in there first, but as of right now it appears the precip moves out before the whole area can change over to snow.

Here's where I think we could see a light dusting of snow, on grassy surfaces:

Again, I still think this is a fluid situatuion, all dependent on when the snow changeover happens. I'll be posting pretty frequently on Twitter tomorrow.

First Potential Snow - 2 Days Out

Ah, the early season storm excitement might have all been for nothing. For the past couple of days, the weather models have been pretty consistent on giving us little if any in the way of the white stuff here in Central Ohio. While this isn't an official forecast, the Euro gives us a pretty good idea of what Thursday afternoon might look like:

That might be the saddest excuse of a backside snow that I've ever seen. It's not even on the backside of a deepening low, or even a Ridge Runner. No, this is just a regular looking boundary with cold air forcing itself in and causing a brief changeover before the precip ends.

On top of the weakness of this scenario, the timing isn't great either. A few days ago this looked like it had potential to change overnight Thursday in to Friday. Instead the storm seems to speed up and snow could fall in the afternoon. It's still too early in the season for our environment to be cold enough to support an event like this for accumulating snow, so right now we're going to be down to tracking this for our first chance of a dusting. I think our 1"> snow chances are pretty low.

I'll give a forecast tomorrow, with a snow map if needed.

First Potential Snow - 3 Days Out

It seems a little early in the season to be talking about it, but sure enough we have a chance for our first snow Thursday night.

The Setup:

A disturbance will drop down out of Canada and meet up with moisture from the Gulf around Oklahoma, setting up a true battle of cold and warm air, to determine if we get our first snow of the season.

As the storm moves across the country, high pressure and deep arctic air will settle to the north of the boundary. The strength and positioning of that cold airmass could ironically push the boundary far enough south to keep us out of the precip. Or, it could be shallow enough to allow warm air to win out and we get rain.

This, like so many boundary storms, will be all about location.

As we get closer, I'll be able to give you a better idea of what to expect as this storm bears down on us Thursday in to Friday. For now, keep your guards up for the potential for wintry weather.

A Nasty Halloween 2019

Halloween always seems to be somewhat frightful around Central Ohio when it comes to our weather. If it seems like I've written about stormy Trick Or Treating before, it's because I have. I would have more posts to link to if Weather Underground still had archives, but 7 years ago we also dealt with some Halloween snowflakes on the backside of Sandy.

So here we are again. Starting this afternoon we will be rainy, leading all the way in to a possibly ugly Halloween evening for all the kids going house to house. Lets set it up:

A large sprawling storm is entering out area today and will be with us through tomorrow evening, with two different rounds of precip.

Round 1 should start a little after lunchtime for Central Ohio, with areas west getting wet first. This will be a moderate to heavy at times rain that'll last well in to the evening. Expect 0.5" to 1" throughout the area with this round.

We'll have a few hours overnight without rain before round 2 approaches just before sunrise.

Round 2 really is the main event. We're looking at heavier rain, winds picking up, and the much anticipated FROPA with plummeting temperatures. We'll miss out on severe thunderstorms here in Ohio, as stability just won't be there. Perhaps if we had some clearing out ahead of round 2, and better timing for diurnal heating we would be looking at a severe risk, but I think at best we're looking at heavy rain with the front approaching and perhaps a clap of thunder. Overall the odds are very low on even a chance of thunder.

Trick Or Treat

The big question that's been floating out there for days is how this will affect the little ones out and about on Thursday evening. The news is good and bad.

Models have been speeding up the frontal passage over the past couple days. The NAM-3K currently shows rain splitting Central Ohio at 5pm on Thursday, which would mean most of us should be dry 6pm. I actually think this ends up speeding up a little more once the front approaches, so I feel pretty confident in saying we shouldn't need the umbrellas except perhaps in far eastern Fairfield and Licking Counties at the onset.

The bad news is with the FROPA comes very gusty winds and cold temperatures. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we see a Wind Advisory issued for tomorrow night, with winds gusting as high as 50mph heading in to the overnight hours. For the early evening, it'll be gusty and temps starting in the mid 50s but probably dropping to the upper 30s by the end of Trick or Treating.

What About The Snow?

You probably noticed snow on the predictive radar image, and I can't rule out a few flakes flying Thursday late night in to Friday morning. But as you can see in the image below, any chance for accumulation will stay well north of us:

Don't expect to wake up to school closings and snow on the lawn Friday morning, but this does mean we're getting closer and closer to our first snow of the season!

Here Comes the Relief

Temperatures will reach 90° for the fourth day in a row here in Central Ohio, and for what I anticipate will be the last time in 2019. The monster ridge that has been persistent across the eastern US for what seems like months will finally lose its influence on our weather pattern starting this afternoon.

Expect a cold front and a regiem change late this afternoon. Usually large temperature swings see severe storms, but this is a relatively dry airmass taking over an already dry atmosphere, so there's nothing there to spark this afternoon. Northeastern Ohio may see some storms, but for the most part we'll stay dry:

While we won't be getting a much needed drink (more about that in a moment), we will be getting our first real taste of fall for all of us in Ohio. Watching this temperature animation over the next several hours is very satisfying:

We may not get out of the 50's tomorrow afternoon along and north of Columbus! That's quite a shock to the system compared to all of these record breaking days at the start of the month.

Here in Canal Winchester I recorded 0.78" of rain for the entire month of September, and I'm sitting at 0" so far in October. This has led to crunchy lawns and dried out crops across Central Ohio. During the middle of the year the rain seemed to come at a steady pace and keep us in good shape, but now most of Ohio is considered Abnormally Dry, with Moderate Drought taking place in Western Ohio:

It looks like our next good shot at rain is at the end of the weekend. Unfortunately October is traditionally our driest month anyway, so here's to hoping along with the falling temps we can buck the precipitation trend also!