THE WEEKLY: May 27 - June 2

Welcome to the Memorial Day week edition of THE WEEKLY where we're going to discuss that Gulf disturbance I talked about last week that has now become super hybrid weird looking Alberto.

Check out Subtropical Alberto, trying his hardest to be a big deal before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle later today:

Tons of dry air wrapping in, but it's still a heavy rain maker for the western Panhandle, and a possible severe threat for the eastern Panhandle and southern Georgia.

So why does this matter for us? Because the remnants of Alberto will roll unimpeded in to the Ohio Valley over the next couple days. As of now the heaviest rain appears to pass west of us, but that doesn't mean we're out of the woods. You notice all of the severe weather is displaced off to the east of the center right now? That'll still be the case once it moves in to Indiana and Illinois by Wednesday:

This will bring unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday, with the potential to spark more storms Thursday and Friday as well. This will move north and a little northwest until Wednesday evening when it hits a low pressure coming in from the Dakotas. That's where uncertainty lies. Some models want to retrograde the low back in to the Ohio Valley, while others send it east in to eastern Canada.

In the meantime we'll be in the low 90s for Memorial Day, upper 80s on Tuesday, with variable temps the rest of the week as storms will pulse each day with the Alberto interaction.

Remember when we totally skipped Spring?

THE WEEKLY - May 20-26

Should I post a picture of a broken record? Nah, that seems too on the nose. Maybe I'll go back with last week's post and just throw in the 50% pops image. That seems applicable.

Forget it. I'll just tell everyone that we're in a summer-like pattern at the end of May. It's been like this for a couple weeks, and it'll be like this until something kicks the pattern the other way. And this week won't be when that happens.

Last Tuesday we had a tornado warning in Columbus. I don't think we'll see big storms like that at all this week. Today would be the best chance, and even that is marginal as a distrubance from Illinois eventually makes its way toward the southern half of Ohio.

Instead, expect a 50% chance of storms Monday and Tuesday before high pressure finally starts to build in over the Great Lakes region:

That high pressure should do a decent job to suppress thunderstorm development Wednesday and Thursday, but I wouldn't be as bold to say a 0% chance either of those days.

But you'll notice I drew the High moving southeast of us. By Friday we'll return to a southern flow which should raise temps, increase moisture and bring our chance of storms back.

While it's still over a week away, I would like to address the potential for a weak tropical entity to finally bring us a pattern shift:

There is a ton of uncertainty this far out, including whether this will even develop. But a heavy rain event could be occuring somewhere along the Gulf coast on Memorial Day next week. This is something we should be concerned about since the previously mentioned High pressure will have moved off and this could track right in to the Ohio Valley. That would bring us heavy rain, but it could also kick our pattern in to some wackiness. It's hard to tell what that could mean this far out, but it's worth watching.

Have a great week!

THE WEEKLY - May 13-19

There's really not a whole lot to say about this week's weather. I guess I'll just borrow an image from the NWS:

There. That about covers it. Every day, every night for the next 6 days.... this. A chance of storms every single day as this stalled out boundry moves a little north, then a little south. No day looks more promising than the next for big storms or for completely dry conditions.

I'd say the only feature that could change things up, and even possibly break this pattern, will be the system in the Gulf that is dousing Florida with rain right now. It'll be spinning there for a while, but eventually it'll head our way. When it does, it'll enhance thunderstorm activity and even bring us steadier rain for the day Friday, before turning back out to sea Saturday:

We're a little too far out to say for sure that this could break the pattern, but I think it has a good shot.

In the meantime, be prepared every day this week for possible severe weather, heavy rain, small hail and even high winds. This is your Summer pattern, just a month or two early.

Saturday's Slight Risk of Storms

I'm sure anywhere you've looked the impressive temperature split in Ohio has been talked to death. Yes, it's incredible to see a stationary front give us mid 80s in Cincinnati and upper 40s in Cleveland. But it's not just Ohio. It has the northern third of most of the country locked back in to a late winter feel:

We're going to be looking at that boundry tomorrow for what could be a decent shot at some severe storms across Central Ohio. Points east of us look to have a better shot with an Enhanced Risk:

It's going to be a very narrow area where storms could develop tomorrow. You're dealing with the perfect match of instability and forcing with the front draped across the area, but if you go too far north you're cloaked in clouds and precip which limits instability. Too far south, like near the Ohio River where instability will be high, you're too far away from the best forcing to actually ignite the storms.

That's why Central Ohio looks like the bullseye for the biggest storms tomorrow:

This zone could move 50 miles either way by tomorrow, but as of now I'd say right along I-70 is a good target for the biggest storms. Our main risk should be hail and high winds. This won't be a highly sheared environment so I don't think we will see any sort of tornado outbreak, but I wouldn't rule out a stray twist up.

I think something that hasn't been talked about enough with this setup tomorrow is the prime potential to see storms train over the same area and drop high rainfall totals. Don't be surprised if you see some isolated 2-3" spots by tomorrow night if these storms repeatedly hit the same area.

I doubt I'll be able to LiveBlog tomorrow as I'll be out and about, but follow the Twitter account for instant updates of our situation as storms fire tomorrow.

THE WEEKLY - May 6-12

Sorry about being a day late on The Weekly. It's not like I missed out on much, today was a pretty perfect day, a high in the low 70s and clouds dissipating throughout the day.

So what should we expect for the rest of the week? Well, not much of a changeup from today for the most part. Every day should be in the high 70s with lots of sun! Oh, except for one day. Of course we couldn't have five perfect days in a row.

Thursday we should see some showers with a very slight chance of thunder in the late afternoon and early evening. I don't think this system brings us much rain at all, maybe a tenth of an inch, and a very tiny chance of any storms:

You'll notice the low pressure with Thursday's front is way up in to Canada, which means most of the forcing for storms should stay well north as well. But then that's it. After Thursday night we're right back to sun and warmth. So much warmth that as of now, the weekend looks down right summer-like:

Above is the 2m temp anomoly for Saturday. Huge warmth in the center and eastern portions of the country, thanks to a large blocking high off the Atlantic coast.

I'll post again if Thursday's event becomes anything more than a light rain maker. Otherwise, enjoy this great weather week ahead!

Thursday Storms: Will They Happen?

Today was a warm and somewhat humid day. This brought some instability to the area, but we never saw that spark in the atmosphere to pop any storms. I tweeted a picture earlier today showing some tiny showers that tried to become a big deal, but never made it.

I think a couple days ago most weather nerds probably circled Thursday as our best chance of storms for the week, but I'm so hesitant to say that'll be the case. Tomorrow is a huge boom or bust day. Let's look at what dictates that:

Early Morning MCS
Storms are firing in the Midwest tonight and eventually be making their way across the country. By morning I think the complex will be greatly decayed and I think it's truly a 50/50 shot whether we see any thunder at all out of this corpse:

So does this MCS become anything? If it's mostly a shell of it's former Midwestern self, I think that sets us up for possible afternoon development. I think a weaker disturbance gives us a better chance at afternoon and evening storms.

Clearing Out Those Debris Clouds
A weaker morning system should allow clouds to clear out, allowing instability to build in the afternoon. Unlike today, we will have a forcing element tomorrow as a second disturbance moves with the quick west to east flow.

Looking at the NAM it shows partly cloudy conditions tomorrow afternoon out ahead of the next disturbance:

I think if a scenario like this verifies, we'll have a chance at decent storms in the late afternoon and evening hours.

CAPE and Shear
I've already said we're going to have that spark in the atmosphere, but there will also be instability and shear to help these storms build. Current model runs support 1500 J/kg of CAPE with 0-6km shear over 50kts. What that means is storms should be able to build tall and mature (CAPE) and once they do, they'll rotate (shear).

Remember, a rotating meso doesn't always mean a tornado forms. But the potential will be there, although I think high winds and hail would be a safer bet.

I'll post and tweet tomorrow if our conditions become favorable for a fun afternoon. Keep checking back!

Central Ohio Wx Goes Social!

Did you know we are under a Red Flag Warning today for dangerous burning conditions? You didn't? Oh, probably because you come to this site for all of your weather content, right? Right. Well now you can fallow Central Ohio Weather on Twitter for instant weather updates!

Why Twitter? Because it's a great platform for getting short messages across to everyone that follows us. It's easy to convey DON'T BURN YOUR YARD WASTE with a couple lines on a Tweet than a whole blog post!

This doesn't mean I'll be blogging less. If anything this ensures I'm able to get my thoughts out there more frequently, and gives us all a chance to interact about the weather more.

I've been excited about this idea for a while and I'm glad to finally get this off the ground. So PLEASE, follow me on Twitter and lets start getting nerdy about the weather together.

Follow @wxcentralohio
Go ahead!! Click above and follow us!