Sunday, March 18, 2018

Potential Midweek Snow

Today was an absolutely beautiful late Winter day. Highs in the upper 50s and sunny skies kind of made you forget that we're below normal on temps for the month. That is, until you look ahead on the 7 day forecast and see we have two potential snow storms coming.

Let's take the first one first. Tuesday in to Wednesday we could see accumulating snow. I'm not talking about the quick hitting squalls we've been seeing lately, but a legitimate storm. I see this as a two part storm:

Tuesday Morning
The first low moves in Monday Night in to Tuesday and there's a chance we could start out with some mixed precip Tuesday Morning. Not a huge threat and probably won't be very disruptive considering this hits us after sunrise:
I think the Euro underplays the potential for snow and sleet Tuesday morning, but I think this will be something to watch. Again, I don't think it becomes a major force Tuesday, but who knows? I think we'll have a better idea by this time tomorrow.

Tuesday Night in to Wednesday
This is where we could be in for some snowfall. With it being mid to late a March, sun angles are comparable to ealy October right now. That means it would take a really big storm to get daytime accumulations. What this second part of the storm has working for it is overnight precipitation. Not only does this avoid the suns rays melting things on contact, but lower non-diurnal temps. This is a trailing low that won't be quite a strong as Tuesday Morning's low, but has timing working for it:

I don't think models are going to do a good job of depicting the intensity of the snowfall because of the earlier system kind of clouding the dynamics. This could be a last second call on snowfall amounts, just because we really may not know how big this could be until the first system moves out.

As of now I think we're pretty set for an accumulating snow event, but I'm not ready to put a number on it. It won't be a monster, so don't expect double digit snow totals, but it'll definitely accumulate.

I'll be posting updates as we get closer!

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