March 26th Got Severe!

Yesterday we were under a marginal risk for severe weather, and I honestly don't think anyone (weather nerd or not) thought too much of it.

Yesterday was also the first day of a multi-day radar outage in Wilmington, where our main radar for the region is. These two events combined made for bad timing.

The first tornado siren sounded around 7:14pm last night, and the west side of Columbus got awful dark. I sent my drone up shortly after that, but being so far east made it hard to see any cloud formations or rotation.

Using the CMH terminal radar I was able to watch as the storms moved in near Hilliard and moved toward Westerville slowly.

This didn't present well on radar because... well, we didn't have much of a radar to go off of. In the end, no reports of a touchdown in Franklin County. Just a noisy, early Spring evening.

Timing is Everything

We have another shot at some wintry precip tomorrow morning, and with this small round... timing is everything. By sunrise tomorrow we'll see a freezing rain and snow mix moving in:

We'll still be below freezing for a few hours after sunrise, so whatever falls could cause a mess. Here's where the timing comes in:

If precip starts earlier, it'll be in the overnight. We should have enough cold air still aloft to allow precip to fall as all snow. That would effect rush hour more negatively, and bring more school delays and closings. 

If it falls right as the sun's coming up, that warmer air is rushing in over our cold lower levels, meaning some light freezing rain. It's also starting right at rush hour, which brings its own set of issues.

If this is just a couple hours late, we're in March. That gives the March sun a couple hours head start to warm the entire column, meaning we're probably just looking at a rain event.

If I were a betting man, I'd lean towards an earlier solution. These clipper-like systems always seem to run a little faster than models suggest, which means be prepared for a little bit of a dicey commute tomorrow.

Good Job, Lancaster

Can anyone confirm the 3" that was reported in Lancaster from the overnight snow? Everyone else saw roughly an inch, and somehow Lancaster - the common area that misses out on snow - got the most in our area!

Maybe an Inch Or Two

I put off as long as I could posting predictions for tonight in to tomorrow because I just couldn't believe how sold the models were on a dry slot forming directly over Central Ohio.

Then again it shouldn't surprise me. We've missed out on everything else this winter. Why not this storm, too?

Pay no attention to the actual totals on this model, this is what the HRRR has been depicting for several hours now:

That's right. A monster dry wedge right up the US23 corridor. If you believe the HRRR, that means by daybreak tomorrow we would barely have a dusting. 

I believe we will wake up with half an inch across all Central Ohio counties, and accumulate another half an inch during the day tomorrow. I don't think this will be a serious event for us at all. Some schools may delay or close tomorrow in the more rural areas, but this Winter Weather Advisory they have for points along and north of I-70 seems overdone to me.

Feel free to post pictures and snow reports as it happens!

Central Ohio's Pre-Nor'easter Snow

In my last post I told everyone to keep an eye on that Monday to Tuesday time frame coming up for a chance of some accumulating March snow. Here we are less than 24 hours out, and I think we have a good idea what could happen.

The Setup
The Nor'easter will be a mix of a clipper-like system dropping out of the Plains, and a northern Gulf system riding up the coast, phasing in to a bombed out storm. What'll bring our snow chances is the Plains system.

Here's an animation of the Euro model showing how the low will actually "die down" as it passed our area. That's because the actual low pressure center is phasing to the east coast. It's during this weakening trend that we could see lower snow totals, before one more ramp up of snow as this strengthens and becomes the Nor'easter:

So then the question becomes, where does the snow fall? Because right now it's a narrow rain/snow line that could be the difference in a few inches and nothing but rain.

Just about everyone may start as rain early tomorrow afternoon, before a rain/snow line will setup around 5pm in our I-71 corridor we always see as a line:

As of now this is where I feel like the freezing line might set up. Areas just south of this line may still see wet snow, but it may not stick for the first few hours. This line would sit here in to the overnight, before we go to all snow to the south and everything sticks.

What concerns me for snowfall sticking is that patch of dark blue in southeastern Ohio and West Virginia. We see this area staying warmer for almost every low that passes south of us. How far north does that venture during the day Monday? 

From experience, it always lingers farther north and for a longer time than most models ever suggest. That means for now I'm being pessimistic on snowfall totals for our area. This is also why I'm going to wait until tomorrow to make a snowfall map. For now lets just assume Lancaster and points southeast would be 1" and smaller. Dublin and northwest could be 2" or greater. For now.

I'll post with more granular totals tomorrow!

Changeover To Snow Tonight, Keep An Eye On Next Week

I'm still thinking we have a shot at some snow in the overnight hours tonight.

Wait, it's 60° right now, that can't be right. Let me check again...

Uh yeah, sure enough, we should get a blast of winter in the overnight hours. We'll start as rain sometime around midnight, and then the cold air will begin to rush in.

The HRRR shows a couple hours of moderate snow falling in the overnight:

Just because snow falls doesn't mean it sticks. I think maybe if we catch some heavier bands, we could have some brief accumulation on roads, but as soon as rates ease up it'll all melt.

I doubt we see much of a headache with the morning commute or school delays, as this should just be a brief hitter before clearing out for the rest of the weekend.

I think what we need to keep an eye on is the Monday-Tuesday timeframe next week. This is when we could get actual accumulation with a system phasing to an east coast monster passing over us. We'll stay below normal for temps for the next several days, so anything that hits us should have a chance at sticking.

Hope you didn't put away the snow shovels just yet.

Snow Isn't Done Quite Yet

Sometimes you have to wait for a huge system like the one we're getting through right now to pass before computer models start to comprehend the upcoming systems a little better. That might be what's happened here.

On Sunday I posted that the systems that will work from west to east later this week will be mainly rain makers due to warmer air nudging in from the south. While I'm not 100% sold on this colder solution, almost all models are leaning toward some snow Thursday night in to Friday morning. This is just one, the GFS, early Friday morning:

I don't think this turns out to be a major snow maker for us, maybe an inch by sunrise. But considering the timing, this could be a little bit of a headache for the Friday morning commute and schools.

There's another chance a storm system could clip us Saturday night, but models aren't handling that one very well yet.

I'll update Thursday with a closer look at the first system, and hopefully a better idea of what we have heading in to this weekend.

The Pattern Flattens

Thank you to everyone who has followed me from Wunderground! Please remember, if you don't use Google or another way of posting comments, there's a way to submit comments anonymously. Thank you!

Thursday sure did have its moments of snow squalls, didn't it? Well, maybe some of you saw the snow and some of you didn't, depending on where you were. Showers were definitely scattered in nature, but very heavy at times.

Here's some footage I took from my drone over Canal Winchester as a squall moved in:


With the back light of the setting sun, the squall initially looked very much like a spring thunderstorm. But a quick quarter of an inch of snow fell in just about 10 minutes, and then we went back to sunlight.

This Week
I don't think we're going to have anything like that this week. A very large storm system will move in tomorrow evening through Tuesday morning, which will essentially "reset" the pattern to more of a flat, active period. This storm will coil up in to a monster in Canada, but just bring a line of rain and gusty winds behind it for us:

After this? Well, it'll be quiet for a couple days before we start to see multiple systems ride west to east along a flatted out jet stream pattern. Because warmer air seems to be pushing northward, this will mostly be a rain making pattern for us. If this were January? Perfect setup for quick hitting snow systems.

For us to see any more snow this season, we're going to need some deep arctic air to settle in and a southern low to eject out of  a Gulf state. That's just about the only way we ever see a decent accumulation once we get in to those early Spring days. 

So, what do you think? Will we see any more significant (more than 1") of snow this season? Or, do you think this is it?

From Tornadoes to Snow Showers

Yes, it's March, and even though it's the start of meteorological Spring, we're still in a Winter month. So even though we had some confirmed tornadoes in southwest Ohio yesterday morning, we have some snow showers out there today.

Here's the cold and blustery view from my rooftop camera this afternoon:

Nothing's accumulating because our ground is still fairly warm from the warm weather we've had recently. The only real impact I can see happening is the possibility of some of these showers reducing visibility around rush hour. As you can see from this afternoon's radar, showers are scattered in variety and could even be locally heavy at times:

I really don't think we'll see any accumulation. Just mother nature reminding you that Winter isn't over quite yet. I mean, it's close, but not completely dead!

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 4
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 1
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 1
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
November: 0" (Predicted: 0")
December: 4.75" (Predicted: 2")
January: 3.1" (Predicted: 2")
February: 0.6" (Predicted: 0.5")

Season: 8.45"

Goodbye, Wunderblogs

For 9 years I've been writing a blog about the weather here in Central Ohio on Weather Underground. This is my 740th post, and a sad one to write. As I discovered today, the member blogs section of Weather Underground will be discontinued in April. This notice was a heartbreaking one to read:


On February 10, 2008, I wrote, "I'm Eric Josephson, a 23 year-old weather enthusiast from Central Ohio." Wow. I was 23. And with that, I began writing entries religiously. 

Over the years I had interactions with so many great members of the Wunderground community. I got to talk to people from all around Central Ohio, parts of Indiana, and even as far away as Seattle. I've covered all kinds of crazy weather events, from the Blizzard of 2008 to the Derecho of 2012. Crazy hot temperatures and insanely cold ones. Drought, floods, amazing lightning shots, and all the amazing weather this country has to offer.

And just like that, with about a month's notice, Wunderground pulled the rug out from all of it.

They claim they'll keep the blogs archived, which is nice, but I'll never be an avid visitor of this site again. I have my weather cam and weather station hosted here, so it's not like I'm cutting myself off from Wunderground all together. But the loss of the blogs will be a huge blow to this site, unfortunately. Not just from me, but many other members I've read posts from.

BUT I'M NOT GIVING UP MY PASSION OF WRITING ABOUT THE WEATHER

I've decided to move to another blogging platform. From now on I'll write on the Google based Blogger platform. My new site will be:

Central Ohio Weather, wxcentralohio.blogspot.com

For the time being I'll post full entries on my new site, including this one, and partial entries on Wunderground until the blogs are discontinued in April.

Goodbye, Wunderground. You screwed up a great thing.