Looking At Friday Morning Snow

Today was THE COLDEST DAY IN THE HISTORY OF WEATHER. Ok, that's what people thought today when they walked outside and the wind chill was frequently dropping below -30°. Schools and colleges everywhere were closed, lots of parents stayed home with their kids, so the city was a ghost town today.

Tomorrow morning will be cold too, but no where near as bad as today. We'll see wind chills in the negative teens, and many schools are closed again. As the high pressure builds in from the west, winds will subside to 5-10mph, but temps will bottom out lower than they did today. I'd say widespread -5 to -10°. But the cold isn't even the biggest story tomorrow.

It's what kicks in tomorrow night that'll steal the headlines and really add insult to injury:

A potent clipper will push the high pressure out of our area, bringing a decent area of snow to the region Thursday night. Snow will last all the way in to rush hour Friday morning. Temps will still be low, in the teens, meaning snow will stick immediately. I think we're going to have a pretty rough morning commute Friday.

Snowfall amounts are a little high for a clipper system, pushing up to 4" in quite a few places. Here's what I'm thinking for Friday morning:

This will be a high impact event based on the fact we just had our coldest stretch of winter, and the timing. These overnight in to rush hour events always seem to cause a huge problem.

From two straight days of frigid cold to a moderate snow event, this will wrap one of the busiest stretches of winter.

Deepest Cold in Years

If you haven't heard about the cold that's coming this week then you've been living under a rock. Weather nerds and every day folks are all talking about THE COLDEST AIR TO EVER INVADE OHIO. Ok, for anyone that actually is saying that, it's a bit of an exaggeration.

However, we are on tap for what will probably be the lowest wind chills we've seen since February 15, 2015. That date was also the last time we had a Wind Chill Warning.

As of now, Wind Chill Watches have been issued for a large portion of Ohio in anticipation of the arctic blast:

I expect these to change to all Warnings by tomorrow morning. Each model run has been firm on Wind Chills of -20° to -25°, and I don't anticipate that changing in the next 24 hours.

This cold will come in two waves. The first will be tonight around midnight as the initial cold front pushes the rain out of the area. Yes, this could leave us with some flash freezing by daybreak:

This will leave air temperatures struggling to get in to the teens tomorrow. Combine that with sustained winds in the 10-15mph range and tomorrow will be an uncomfortable day. But wait, it gets worse.

The second wave hits Tuesday night in to Wednesday morning:

This not only brings the reinforcing shot of cold air, but gustier conditions. We will see sustained winds of 20mph and gusts up to 35mph. That's when wind chills as low as -25° could be realized sometime during the day Wednesday. Expect numerous school closures Wednesday, as this is the kind of cold you don't want your kid waiting at the bus stop for any amount of time.

Just as I typed this, we were issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the flash freeze tonight and chance of up to an inch of snow as the rain transitions. Considering we're in the mid 40s right now and expect to crash down to lower teens by sunrise, it's safe to say tomorrow will be a rough day. And Wednesday will be one of the harshest days we've had in quite a while.

Some areas of the Upper Midwest will see -50° wind chills, so hey, it could always be worse! I plan on updating through Twitter as this event sets in.

Active Weather After a Stormy Weekend

The most impactful storm of the season so far is still causing problems for us. School districts are already calling off classes tomorrow all over southern Ohio, and quite a few are closed or delayed in Central Ohio. It wasn't the amount of snow, but the blowing of snow that really caused a headache on the roads. It sure didn't help that we barely made it in to the double digits in the temperature department today either.

Help is on the way tomorrow as we'll get above freezing during the day with some sun. That should be enough to clear up any remaining roadway issues ahead of Wednesday's storm.

On The Warm Side

Winter Storm Watches and warnings are already up across the Midwest ahead of a storm system that'll dump snow from Nebraska to the Upper Great Lakes. However, we'll be on the warm side of it. 40's and rain is the call for Wednesday, but Wednesday night in to early Thursday morning is where we should keep an eye out for our next chance of snow.

In not exactly the same form as this weekend, we'll see snow on the backside of this storm system. Colder air rushes in as the front passes through, so any moisture leftover will change to snow:

This won't be too impactful, maybe just an inch of snow.

What I'll be writing about later in the week is another deep freeze for this weekend. This one might last a little longer than the one we saw Sunday and today.

SUMMARY: January 19th-20th Storm

On Friday I said:
"The lines drawn above cannot be set in stone."

For days in advance it appeared this storm would split Central Ohio in half right down I-70. Most models pointed to that and I didn't seem to have a reason to doubt it. But by Friday night models suddenly shifted to a more northern solution. By Friday night I posted this addendum:

What I didn't say in my blog post is I believe warmer air will win out and push that rain/snow line further north than most outlets are forecasting. #ohwx

— Central Ohio Weather (@wxcentralohio) January 18, 2019

At that point I had a feeling we would wake up Saturday morning to a cold rain, and sure enough, as far north as southern Delaware County in Central Ohio was just rain. As the day went on that warm surge pushed even further north, allowing the majority of Central Ohio to be all rain. We saw very little freezing rain or sleet during the day.

It wasn't until Saturday night when snow finally overtook most of the area and our accumulation began. Snow was heavy at time between midnight and 3am, where most of these totals occurred:

Many called this storm a bust and were disappointed to see the amount of attention this got through the day yesterday, but I still believe this was a high impact storm. Once snow started last night we had 30mph winds causing blowing snow. Temps dropped from the mid 30s to the single digits in a matter of hours. This was a major event that cause Level 2 and 3 snow emergencies Sunday morning and all but shutdown travel overnight.

No, we didn't get the icing or heavy snow that was originally called for, but it's only because of a last minute 50 mile adjustment. Imagine trying to throw a football in a bucket from 50 yards away. That's what it's like being able to predict exactly where a rain/snow line will be for a storm that hasn't even reached your region yet. To miss by 50 miles is like that football just barely bouncing off the rim of that bucket. Not bad if you ask me. But... people will still say uneducated accusations like, "wow I wish I could get paid to be wrong all the time like Meteorologists!"

I'll get off my soap box now.

Looking Ahead
Our temperatures are downright frigid right now. As the sun is going down air temps are in the single digits and wind chills are well below zero.

Luckily we'll jump back above freezing by Tuesday before another warm storm system moves in mid-week. We'll be on a rollercoaster all week, get ready for more storms ahead.

January 19th Winter Storm: Final Call

We're a little more than 12 hours from the onset of one of the biggest winter storms to hit Central Ohio in a couple seasons and we're no closer to officially nailing down a solid forecast for where and how much snow will fall. This is going to be a storm where we have to watch and micromanage changes throughout the day tomorrow.

This morning the NWS issued Winter Storm Warnings along and north of I-70, and then by afternoon extended them another row of counties south and west:

This will be a major snow maker first and foremost. Those warnings in northern Ohio are there specifically because of these high snowfall chances. The further south you go, yeah, it'll snow some, but the real issue there will be the freeze over of wet roads after sunset when a brutally cold air mass wraps in on the backside.

As models have honed in on a solution for this storm, the threat of an ice storm has mostly diminished. It appears instead of cold air rushing in at the surface, leaving warm air aloft, most areas where it's 32° or colder will be just about freezing all the way through the column.

This is the part of the forecasting that becomes nearly impossible to pinpoint. Just north of the rain/snow line will be areas of extremely heavy snowfall. This is where heavy moisture is getting pushed from the rain side to the snow side, and all that water has to go somewhere. It'll form ice crystals and go straight to the surface as huge wet flakes.

So without further delay, here's what I'm thinking for tomorrow:

This isn't as simple as throwing together a snow map and calling it a day. This storm is almost going to be a two parter. Precip starts shortly after sunrise tomorrow as snow, a mix and rain in the areas shaded above. For a large portion of the day we'll see that rain/mix/snow line fluctuate north and south as different pieces of energy surge north from the parent low pressure. By late afternoon or early evening, areas along and north of I-70 may see a complete stop in precip. That's when cold air surges in and we get the backside of the storm swing up from the south, and all areas begin to change over to snow. This is probably where most areas will get the highest accumulation too.

The lines drawn above cannot be set in stone. This is just a best guess where boundaries will set up. As I said earlier, this will have to be micromanaged throughout the day to see exactly where everything sets up. Just because you start out as snow doesn't mean you'll stay like that all day, and vice versa.

I think there's a good chance that somewhere in Central Ohio sees a foot of snow out of this, I just couldn't tell you where. An axis of deformation will setup somewhere for several hours, and that small area will hit the snow jackpot.

Tomorrow I'm trying something new... instead of a LiveBlog, I'm going with LiveTweeting. Twitter has been a good platform to get off short thoughts without having to write a whole post, and that seems to play perfectly in to a storm like this. Be sure to click the link at the top of the page to follow me and join in the conversation tomorrow. It should be a fun one!