Slow Transition to Spring

Sometimes we turn the calendar to March and it's like we flip a switch. We get a quick warm up and suddenly we're in Spring. This month, however, I don't think we're really see Spring for another couple weeks. At least not a constant Spring.

For at least the next 10 days, this is how the weather pattern will play out. Yes, it'll make for an active time for us, but it will not allow prolonged warmth:

Like we will have tonight in to tomorrow, what we should expect in this pattern is to be on the warm side of deepening lows, bringing us rain and wind, with a strong shot of cold on the backside. We'll have one day of warm, followed by 2-3 days of cold until the next storm moves in.

I think we've seen our coldest day until next Winter already. I recorded 7 degrees on March 5th, and we may not even see air that cold again until January 2020! Just because our coldest air is behind us doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods. I think we still have an outside chance of one more accumulating snow before everything is said and done.

Just like our slow decent in to Winter, we'll have a slow climb out of it as well.

Sunday Storm Is Weak

I had some reservations about Sunday's storm and now I understand why. Spring storms should not be trusted. A setup you've seen a dozen times this winter can act a totally different way in the Spring. Surprisingly it's a blast of cold air that messes things up for us this time.

An arctic blast will be pushing the low further south than earlier models suggested. We went from a significant snow to a small accumulation.

Sunday's storm will now only bring us 1-2", mostly daytime accumulation, with warm road surface temps that will keep roads wet. This went from a potential blockbuster storm to a weak Sunday system.

After Sunday, expect highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for the new couple days.

QUICK UPDATE: Sunday Snow

Not a whole lot to update from yesterday, but we are beginning to narrow down the track and hone in on some snowfall numbers. Here's what we know:

PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
Early on I had a fear this could slide far enough north to include a mix along and south of I-70. At this time though, the center of the low should stay far enough south to leave us as all snow.

DAYTIME SNOWFALL
I thought maybe we had a shot at this being up there as our biggest snow of the season if it snows overnight. Right now the timing appears to be all daylight hours on Sunday. This is a problem for accumulation.

As I mentioned yesterday, daytime is not great for accumulating snow in March. With the higher sun angle, some snow may melt before even having a chance to stick. We could have plenty of snow in the air, and hardly any on the ground.

NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
In the end it appears this may just be a moderate accumulation event. This system will stay far enough south to not hit us with a jackpot zone, and the daytime snow isn't very favorable for snow lovers.

There's still time for this path to move some, but most models have it riding the southern Tennessee border. That's further south than I said yesterday, and so in response the snow totals have dropped for our area. The low will transition to a coastal low after it passes due south of us, so precip will cut off quickly in the late afternoon.

I'll post tomorrow with snow predictions for our area. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some Winter Weather Advisories for southern Ohio by this time tomorrow.

FIRST LOOK: Possible Sunday Storm

People have been posting model maps for a couple days, showing outrageous snow totals and all kinds of speculation about a storm that'll pass south of us Sunday, so I decided it's time to finally address the possibility.

This storm will be similar in setup to just about every storm we've had this year. It's a southern storm that seems to creep further and further north in to our area with each and every model run. A few days ago no one was even talking about this system as a potential for us because the track took it through Alabama and Georgia. At this point it's modeled to go along the Tennessee/Kentucky border. Don't be surprised if by Saturday morning we're looking at this thing coming in to Northern Kentucky. It's the natural progression of these storms it seems.

All of our ingredients are about to come together on the other side of the county and form a deepening low around Oklahoma:

This more northern progression has also brought interest in New England, as this could finally bring them a Nor'Easter. For us, right now it appears we could see snow for Central Ohio, as long as the track stays the same it does now. How much? That's still yet to be seen. Measurable is how I would describe it at this point.

If the center is over East Tennessee and we're seeing a warm sector all the way in to the West Virginia panhandle, that tells you this is a very warm storm. I don't have high hopes at this point that we stay all snow for the duration here in Central Ohio at this time. We still have three days and it wouldn't be out of the question to see this venture even further north. Any further than it is now and I have more doubts about a big snow event here.

However... if this scenario does play out, we could be in for a decent hit here in Central Ohio. Maybe even the biggest snow of the season for some.

I think if you want big snow you've got to be rooting for an overnight snow. At this point in the season the sun angle is getting high enough and warm enough to eat away at daytime snow totals.

I'll post more the closer we get with any track adjustments and eventually I'll nail down some totals.

Damaging Winds Possible Sunday

This is starting to feel like the transition from winter to spring, with strong storms moving in and the battle of cold air and warm. When we go from fall to winter, you see these storms that bring high winds and they end with some backside snow. But when we go from winter to spring, you'll see the possibility of storms. While I don't anticipate any severe storms to make it as far north as Central Ohio, we're seeing the first Moderate Risk area this year, showing up across the southeastern US:

Down there they'll most likely see the first tornado outbreak of the year.

Further north we'll have the strong wind dynamics, but without the instability. With the front passing through our area in the early morning hours tomorrow we have almost zero juice in the atmosphere to spark anything. Storms may be possible as nearby as northern Kentucky, but I don't anticipate anything tornadic.

Instead, expect a decent amount of mixing down to the surface as the front moves through early tomorrow morning and then throughout the day tomorrow. There's a strong pressure gradient between the deepening Great Lakes low and a building high coming out of the Rockies. That sets us up for our high wind event.

High Wind Watches stretch from Illinois to New England:

This is definitely a power and dynamic system. This map is colorful, with Blizzard Warnings in the Plains, Flood Watches across the South and our High Wind Watch. It'll be interesting to see if we transition to a High Wind Warning or just a Wind Advisory. Models have slowly pulled back on the severity of the wind gusts, but not only do I think it's the high winds but the duration that'll cause problems for us.

Here's just a snapshot of the NAM from 9am tomorrow morning, wind gusts close to 50mph across the northern part of the state:

I think we could go 24 straight hours with gusts over 40mph, with multiple instances throughout the day Sunday with gusts over 50mph. I think we're at a pretty high risk for power outages here in Central Ohio considering how saturated our ground is. Just this morning I noticed we have trees down from some 30mph gusts we saw earlier this week. Imagine what 50mph will do?

On top of the winds, the temps will drop from the 50s to the 20s from Sunday morning to Monday morning. Expect a couple flurries to fly late in the day Sunday as insult to injury.

I'll be tweeting as much as I can tomorrow, keeping up with what the storm is doing.