The Pattern Change Is Coming

We're heading in to the first full week of January, still without a snowflake in sight. The good news for fans of Winter is we're getting there, slowly but surely this week.

It's a gradual pattern shift, so first we start out with rain. Since we just finished the wettest year on record in Columbus, a little more rain shouldn't come as a shock to anyone. It's a two part system Monday through Tuesday. The first part brings the majority of our rain, while the second part brings some wind and a lot more winter-like air:

I wouldn't rule out some flakes on the backside of this Tuesday night, but that's not the payoff we're looking for. Our next chance at a storm has an outside shot at being our first legitimate snow maker of the season.

This is a southern low that'll start off the Texas Gulf coast. Since we're still 6+ days out, where it goes is still up for debate.

I don't care too much about what the models say this far out. Looking at the setup, I think we have two options. First option, the least likely one, is for this thing to curve up towards the Appalachians and bring us on the western edge of a decent snow maker. The second option is for this thing to stay flat, like every other system this season, and head straight across the Deep South and OTS:

If you've followed me long enough, you know which option I'm rooting for. But if you've lived in Central Ohio long enough, you know which one is least likely to happen too. Hint: the answer is the same.

There are other chances on the horizon past this six day window, all thanks to this slow regime change we'll be going under. But all I'm concerned about right now is this upcoming weekend. Just stick with us through one more warm system to start the week, and the hope is it'll all pay off with a back loaded winter.

At least we hope.