Looking At Friday Morning Snow

Today was THE COLDEST DAY IN THE HISTORY OF WEATHER. Ok, that's what people thought today when they walked outside and the wind chill was frequently dropping below -30°. Schools and colleges everywhere were closed, lots of parents stayed home with their kids, so the city was a ghost town today.

Tomorrow morning will be cold too, but no where near as bad as today. We'll see wind chills in the negative teens, and many schools are closed again. As the high pressure builds in from the west, winds will subside to 5-10mph, but temps will bottom out lower than they did today. I'd say widespread -5 to -10°. But the cold isn't even the biggest story tomorrow.

It's what kicks in tomorrow night that'll steal the headlines and really add insult to injury:

A potent clipper will push the high pressure out of our area, bringing a decent area of snow to the region Thursday night. Snow will last all the way in to rush hour Friday morning. Temps will still be low, in the teens, meaning snow will stick immediately. I think we're going to have a pretty rough morning commute Friday.

Snowfall amounts are a little high for a clipper system, pushing up to 4" in quite a few places. Here's what I'm thinking for Friday morning:

This will be a high impact event based on the fact we just had our coldest stretch of winter, and the timing. These overnight in to rush hour events always seem to cause a huge problem.

From two straight days of frigid cold to a moderate snow event, this will wrap one of the busiest stretches of winter.

Deepest Cold in Years

If you haven't heard about the cold that's coming this week then you've been living under a rock. Weather nerds and every day folks are all talking about THE COLDEST AIR TO EVER INVADE OHIO. Ok, for anyone that actually is saying that, it's a bit of an exaggeration.

However, we are on tap for what will probably be the lowest wind chills we've seen since February 15, 2015. That date was also the last time we had a Wind Chill Warning.

As of now, Wind Chill Watches have been issued for a large portion of Ohio in anticipation of the arctic blast:

I expect these to change to all Warnings by tomorrow morning. Each model run has been firm on Wind Chills of -20° to -25°, and I don't anticipate that changing in the next 24 hours.

This cold will come in two waves. The first will be tonight around midnight as the initial cold front pushes the rain out of the area. Yes, this could leave us with some flash freezing by daybreak:

This will leave air temperatures struggling to get in to the teens tomorrow. Combine that with sustained winds in the 10-15mph range and tomorrow will be an uncomfortable day. But wait, it gets worse.

The second wave hits Tuesday night in to Wednesday morning:

This not only brings the reinforcing shot of cold air, but gustier conditions. We will see sustained winds of 20mph and gusts up to 35mph. That's when wind chills as low as -25° could be realized sometime during the day Wednesday. Expect numerous school closures Wednesday, as this is the kind of cold you don't want your kid waiting at the bus stop for any amount of time.

Just as I typed this, we were issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the flash freeze tonight and chance of up to an inch of snow as the rain transitions. Considering we're in the mid 40s right now and expect to crash down to lower teens by sunrise, it's safe to say tomorrow will be a rough day. And Wednesday will be one of the harshest days we've had in quite a while.

Some areas of the Upper Midwest will see -50° wind chills, so hey, it could always be worse! I plan on updating through Twitter as this event sets in.

Active Weather After a Stormy Weekend

The most impactful storm of the season so far is still causing problems for us. School districts are already calling off classes tomorrow all over southern Ohio, and quite a few are closed or delayed in Central Ohio. It wasn't the amount of snow, but the blowing of snow that really caused a headache on the roads. It sure didn't help that we barely made it in to the double digits in the temperature department today either.

Help is on the way tomorrow as we'll get above freezing during the day with some sun. That should be enough to clear up any remaining roadway issues ahead of Wednesday's storm.

On The Warm Side

Winter Storm Watches and warnings are already up across the Midwest ahead of a storm system that'll dump snow from Nebraska to the Upper Great Lakes. However, we'll be on the warm side of it. 40's and rain is the call for Wednesday, but Wednesday night in to early Thursday morning is where we should keep an eye out for our next chance of snow.

In not exactly the same form as this weekend, we'll see snow on the backside of this storm system. Colder air rushes in as the front passes through, so any moisture leftover will change to snow:

This won't be too impactful, maybe just an inch of snow.

What I'll be writing about later in the week is another deep freeze for this weekend. This one might last a little longer than the one we saw Sunday and today.

SUMMARY: January 19th-20th Storm

On Friday I said:
"The lines drawn above cannot be set in stone."

For days in advance it appeared this storm would split Central Ohio in half right down I-70. Most models pointed to that and I didn't seem to have a reason to doubt it. But by Friday night models suddenly shifted to a more northern solution. By Friday night I posted this addendum:

What I didn't say in my blog post is I believe warmer air will win out and push that rain/snow line further north than most outlets are forecasting. #ohwx

— Central Ohio Weather (@wxcentralohio) January 18, 2019

At that point I had a feeling we would wake up Saturday morning to a cold rain, and sure enough, as far north as southern Delaware County in Central Ohio was just rain. As the day went on that warm surge pushed even further north, allowing the majority of Central Ohio to be all rain. We saw very little freezing rain or sleet during the day.

It wasn't until Saturday night when snow finally overtook most of the area and our accumulation began. Snow was heavy at time between midnight and 3am, where most of these totals occurred:

Many called this storm a bust and were disappointed to see the amount of attention this got through the day yesterday, but I still believe this was a high impact storm. Once snow started last night we had 30mph winds causing blowing snow. Temps dropped from the mid 30s to the single digits in a matter of hours. This was a major event that cause Level 2 and 3 snow emergencies Sunday morning and all but shutdown travel overnight.

No, we didn't get the icing or heavy snow that was originally called for, but it's only because of a last minute 50 mile adjustment. Imagine trying to throw a football in a bucket from 50 yards away. That's what it's like being able to predict exactly where a rain/snow line will be for a storm that hasn't even reached your region yet. To miss by 50 miles is like that football just barely bouncing off the rim of that bucket. Not bad if you ask me. But... people will still say uneducated accusations like, "wow I wish I could get paid to be wrong all the time like Meteorologists!"

I'll get off my soap box now.

Looking Ahead
Our temperatures are downright frigid right now. As the sun is going down air temps are in the single digits and wind chills are well below zero.

Luckily we'll jump back above freezing by Tuesday before another warm storm system moves in mid-week. We'll be on a rollercoaster all week, get ready for more storms ahead.

January 19th Winter Storm: Final Call

We're a little more than 12 hours from the onset of one of the biggest winter storms to hit Central Ohio in a couple seasons and we're no closer to officially nailing down a solid forecast for where and how much snow will fall. This is going to be a storm where we have to watch and micromanage changes throughout the day tomorrow.

This morning the NWS issued Winter Storm Warnings along and north of I-70, and then by afternoon extended them another row of counties south and west:

This will be a major snow maker first and foremost. Those warnings in northern Ohio are there specifically because of these high snowfall chances. The further south you go, yeah, it'll snow some, but the real issue there will be the freeze over of wet roads after sunset when a brutally cold air mass wraps in on the backside.

As models have honed in on a solution for this storm, the threat of an ice storm has mostly diminished. It appears instead of cold air rushing in at the surface, leaving warm air aloft, most areas where it's 32° or colder will be just about freezing all the way through the column.

This is the part of the forecasting that becomes nearly impossible to pinpoint. Just north of the rain/snow line will be areas of extremely heavy snowfall. This is where heavy moisture is getting pushed from the rain side to the snow side, and all that water has to go somewhere. It'll form ice crystals and go straight to the surface as huge wet flakes.

So without further delay, here's what I'm thinking for tomorrow:

This isn't as simple as throwing together a snow map and calling it a day. This storm is almost going to be a two parter. Precip starts shortly after sunrise tomorrow as snow, a mix and rain in the areas shaded above. For a large portion of the day we'll see that rain/mix/snow line fluctuate north and south as different pieces of energy surge north from the parent low pressure. By late afternoon or early evening, areas along and north of I-70 may see a complete stop in precip. That's when cold air surges in and we get the backside of the storm swing up from the south, and all areas begin to change over to snow. This is probably where most areas will get the highest accumulation too.

The lines drawn above cannot be set in stone. This is just a best guess where boundaries will set up. As I said earlier, this will have to be micromanaged throughout the day to see exactly where everything sets up. Just because you start out as snow doesn't mean you'll stay like that all day, and vice versa.

I think there's a good chance that somewhere in Central Ohio sees a foot of snow out of this, I just couldn't tell you where. An axis of deformation will setup somewhere for several hours, and that small area will hit the snow jackpot.

Tomorrow I'm trying something new... instead of a LiveBlog, I'm going with LiveTweeting. Twitter has been a good platform to get off short thoughts without having to write a whole post, and that seems to play perfectly in to a storm like this. Be sure to click the link at the top of the page to follow me and join in the conversation tomorrow. It should be a fun one!

January 19th Winter Storm: Two Days Out

The NWS has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for this weekend. It's essentially along and north of I-70 here in Central Ohio, with some of Western Ohio getting a couple rows of counties further south included:

We're 48 hours out and all I can tell you is we're in for a classic I-70 split. If you've lived in Central Ohio for 10 years or more, you know what this is. North of I-70 the climate seems 5° colder than south of I-70. Storms plow in to Ohio and seem to use the interstate as their official rain/snow line. And sure enough, this storm won't be any different.

While each weather model has their own take on where the line will setup, we'll use the Euro to illustrate how this storm is shaping up:

Shortly after sunrise Saturday our storm will start with snow north and rain south. That split will run just about all day. Right now it looks like anywhere south of US22 for sure will stay rain throughout the day. Getting closer to I-70 it could be an absolute mess. Perhaps ice, but as of now this is looking more like a mixing event. Northern Franklin County could stay all snow while southern may stay all rain. In between? Snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain old rain. Who knows right now.

As of now the American models like a more northern solution, with the GFS going so far north that just about all of Columbus stays rain throughout. I think that's an outlier. The Euro wants to do a complete split using I-70. I'm leaning towards the I-70 benchmark, but that's pure speculation at this point. We just won't really know exactly where this will setup until it's already here.

For a first call, this is the setup I expect to see during the day Saturday:

The biggest question mark is right through the heart of Central Ohio; what will the area of Ice do? Will it truly be freezing rain, or will we see some sleet? Will it be a rain/snow mix? The way it's looking right now, that area will be right around or slightly below the freezing mark. So any liquid that falls would most likely freeze. If we're right around 32°, maybe the icing isn't so bad.

This is for the daytime though. Saturday night we're going to have a quick switchover to heavy snow after dark. That's when the low pressure moves east and we get the backside arctic air. It'll change any rain immediately over to snow and we'll get the deformation zone setup somewhere. That's when jackpot snow kicks in. We could see high accumulation rates where ever this sets up.

Tomorrow I'll finally put numbers to all of this. For now, try not to model watch too much, it'll just drive you mad.

Weekend Storm: 3 Days Out

Wow, we really went from nothing to talk about to all kinds of stuff to talk about in the blink of an eye. Winter started out just about as boring as I can remember any winter being. Now here we are talking about back to back weekends of big storms.

Oh yeah, and it's going to snow tomorrow too.

Remember when I said there's a Thursday system that'll start to dictate a potential path for the weekend storm? Well it trended colder, meaning instead of scattered showers tomorrow, we're looking at snow showers. Don't worry, this isn't a storm you'll need to get your rulers out for, I think we're looking at an inch or less for most of Central Ohio. On the absolute high end, maybe two inches. Surprisingly the highest amounts could happen right along the I-70 corridor. Two storms in a row with that being the jackpot? Unheard of.

By mid morning the system will move in from the west and snow will begin:

We will probably see a changeover to rain for areas south of Chillicothe, but that means Central Ohio will stay snow for the most part. Temps will eventually get above freezing by late afternoon, but cold air aloft will still allow snow to fall.

This shouldn't be a high impact event, with snow starting after morning rush hour, and most roads being highly salted from the past week's worth of winter weather.

Ok, but now what about this weekend? 

That's what everyone's asking. I've been stopped in the halls at work, gotten texts and calls from family and friends, all anyone's talking about is will it rain or will it snow?

Well I don't want to spend this post talking about whether your house will get all snow. This is going to focus in on what precip modes we'll see during this event.

Within a 50 mile range we could go from heavy snow to heavy rain. This is a loaded system with no lack of moisture. The map below does not represent a forecast. This is just to illustrate how narrow of a band of freezing rain we could see so you can understand how hard of a forecast this will be to pin down:

As always it's the I-71 barricade for some. The important thing to point out is you could drive from Marysville to Lancaster and practically see two different seasons. Three different if you consider ice to be a season of its own.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE MODELS

I guess I'd be negligent to leave out where those precious models are leaning. We're still 72 hours out, but the track is pretty locked in, even this far in advance:

It seems destined to go from east Texas to Nashville to Washington DC. However, each model has slight differences in speed and exact track. When we're talking about a possible 50 mile wide ice storm, a slight jog north or south could mean the difference in a big snow or a big bust. This storm will have to be real-time tracked to accurately pinpoint who will get hit.

What I can say right now is everyone should be on high alert and checking back frequently. Prepare like it'll be a big one and you'll be stuck in your house for a couple days, even if you just end up with rain. Behind this storm will be dangerous cold. So if we do get an ice storm, this could be one of the most impactful storms in quite a while.

Don't believe any snow maps you see out there yet. Anyone putting a number and a location on this thing yet is just throwing stuff to the wall to see if it'll stick. I don't plan on making a final call until at least Friday afternoon, and most responsible weather professionals won't either.

Check back tomorrow as I break down the timing and placement a little more.

Busy Week, First Look at This Weekend

The NWS just issued our second Winter Weather Advisory of the season for tonight along and north of I-70. We will see some freezing drizzle overnight, with a chance of a glaze by morning. We woke up to a good bit of freezing fog in parts of our area this morning, and it appears we'll have a lot more moisture to work with overnight to give us a trickier situation.

That's great and all, I'm sure this has the potential for an impactful morning commute, but lets be honest, since before the last flake fell Sunday morning everyone was looking ahead to what could be a blockbuster storm this upcoming weekend. I've held off until now to comment on it for obvious reasons: models aren't going to be definite at 6 days out. Yet I already saw snow maps posted online from Euro and GFS runs. Please stop doing that stuff, people. Models will not accurately zero in on snowfall amounts or track until at least 72 hours out.

The storm system is just now entering the US from the west coast. Computer models will just begin sampling land based data sources. We're just now getting a look at reliable model runs.

Presented without precision, here's the rough track the system should take:

It still has a long trek across the country before getting to our area. In that time a lot can happen. But at this point it appears we will have a large storm taking a very similar path to last weekend's storm. The biggest difference from last weekend is the northeast travel on the track, which will give us some challenges when it comes to the forecast.

That trajectory tells us we're in for a much stronger storm that'll have a good battle of warm and cold air masses on either side. Simply put: ice potential. 

Don't pay attention to the Euro below to pinpoint if your town is getting snow or ice. This is to simply illustrate that we have another I-71/I-70 benchmark storm. Snow north, ice in the middle and rain to the south:

This won't be as cut and dry as last weekend. Up to 5 days out we saw signals of an all snow event for us in Central Ohio for our last storm. This time we could model watch and have a different signal every time. History usually repeats itself, and in this case I can feel like an area splitting scenario is in play.

We have one more factor to take in to account: a Thursday storm. It's not a strong system by any means, but it'll move through 48 hours before the main event. That does two things; messes with models ahead of the big storm, and sometimes carves a weakness in the atmosphere for the big storm to follow.

Thursday's storm will be a cold rain event, temps barely reaching the 40s, with the low moving directly over Central Ohio. Something like that would setup a more northerly path for the weekend event. Don't write that in stone, because a strong storm should take its own path. But the slightest jog from the previous path could have a major impact.

See? This is why you don't post model images 6 days out. The number of variables that'll go in to the outcome of this event is too high to bet on one model run from one model.

I wrote all of this just to say... stay tuned. It's going to be a long week, kids.

January 12-13 Summary

Boy do I like over achievers! That's what this storm system was. Looking at the setup days out, and even the day before, I just didn't see anything that would make this a high impact storm. I figured we would be on the northern fringe and we would see a dry slot midday that would minimize accumulations.

Well, I was wrong on both counts.

We woke up Saturday morning to the storm taking an unexpected jog northward. That moved us from the fringe to a strong area for accumulation. Then I thought we would see the dry slot in the afternoon, and it appeared! You'd think that northern jog would put us in a prime location for that dry slot, but it stayed south of Central Ohio. Some of Southern Ohio and the Cincinnati area got a break, but for almost the entire day we stayed in an area of light to moderate snowfall.

Here's how the snow totals played out for us here in Central Ohio:

There was a good zone of heavy snow from around Wilmington to Lancaster that was the sweet spot, just north of where the dry slot cut down on accumulation. I had called from 2-3" for most of Central Ohio, but I was off, we ended up with twice that. I measured 5.5" here in Canal Winchester.

This became a high impact event as the evening went on. Snowfall rates eventually got high enough to make it tough on ODOT to keep up with the plowing, and travel was pretty dicey by sunset. All counties were at least under a Level 1 Snow Emergency, with most counties a row further south being in Level 2.

These impacts could have been worse if it were a work week, and this snow fell over a shorter period. We had almost 24 hours of snow, but if it were in 6-12 hours, that could have brought a lot of our area to a halt.

Now we move on to our next storm that I'll start covering as the week starts. Less than a week out and it's looking like we could have a repeat storm. Almost identical to this weekend's setup. I'll keep you updated.

January 12th Storm: One Day Out

Here we are on the Eve of our first storm of the season. Nothing's changed, the models have been incredibly consistent over the past few days. We're looking at a midwest low (instead of the Gulf low I thought we would originally see) that'll eventually transition to a coastal low as it passes just south of us.

It's that transferring of energy to the new parent low that'll be the difference in a couple inches of snow here in Central Ohio.

If you've followed along with the latest NWS snow forecasts or even other local meteorologists, you might have heard of some higher end snow totals. I've seen some places calling for as much as 7" of snow. If we see 7" here in Central Ohio, it'll be the most over achieving system I've ever seen in my life.

Instead, here's what I think we'll see here:

Now I know this is probably less than most outlets have promised, but there's a reason I'm going conservative: it's not that powerful of a storm. It's just a fact. This is a decent mid-latitude system that'll give us periods of moderate snowfall, but lets not kid ourselves, this isn't a blockbuster. It won't over achieve and it won't under achieve.

I talked earlier about that transfer to the coast, and that's the part of the storm where you'll see snow suddenly cut off. It'll be like turning the burner off on a pot of boiling water. The snow will just dissipate. I anticipate that happening sometime Saturday night, right before midnight. The sooner this happens, the lower the snowfall amounts.

Expect this to be a wet snow, roads will be slushy and nasty, and we'll probably see a couple Snow Emergencies in our hilly counties to the southeast. The NWS issued the Winter Weather Advisory I predicted, and it's our first of the season. The first of many? Well we can only hope.

I'll be tweeting throughout the storm tomorrow, so be sure to follow https://twitter.com/wxcentralohio for updates all day tomorrow!

January 12th Storm: Two Days Out

Here we are just a couple days away from our first storm of the season. It's been very surpising how solid the models have been, we've been locked in on a moderate snowfall for a couple of days now.

I think snowfall totals could be tricky for a couple of reasons. First, we're not quite on the far northern edge of the precip like it looked we would be. As of now, we are going to be getting in to the heavier band, closer to the rain/snow line. That will give us heavier snowfall rates. As of now it looks like most of Central Ohio should be in the snow by noon on Saturday:

Snow will move in quick and bring us moderate snowfall rates. This is coming after 3+ days of sub 30 temperatures, so everything that falls will stick instantly.

Even though I say we'll be closer to the snow/rain line, I believe all of Central Ohio will stay snow throughout.

By early Sunday, snow will begin to taper off. This storm system is moving in to a dry environment that will weaken it as it moves in. Parts of Missouri will see upwards of a foot of snow, but we won't see anywhere close to that, even though both locations will go through the same sector of the storm:

The past couple Euro model runshave picked up on this trend of the northern edge drying out early. Even though, with the position of the low, we would still be in a favorable area for continued snow, the low is transitioning to the coast at this time and taking the forcing with it. This quick dry-out will rob us of 1-2" of snow overall.

I'm not ready to put a snow map out just yet, I'll do that sometime tomorrow. But expect us all to wake up to Winter Weather Advisories tomorrow morning.

Enter the Winter

Now THIS is finall starting to look like winter. Today, not so much, with the high winds and temps close to 60. But the rest of the week finally gets us in the winter feeling.

First we will see these winds die down overnight and shift northwesterly. Then we see a common site after a strong storm passage: snow squalls. We'll see "streets" of snow lined up from Lake Michigan to Central Ohio as the day goes on. Don't be surprised if a handful of areas recieve a quick dusting.

Tomorrow will be a blustery day. Gusty winds, snow squalls and temps won't get out of the 20s.

And finally the weekend comes, where we should get our first real snow of the season. I talked about this potential a couple days ago, and now media and models are catching on to it.

As of now it doesn't appear to be a blockbuster event by any means, but a 2-3" event in the middle of an extremely snowless winter will feel like we hit the lottery.

I'll go in to more detail in the upcoming days about how this storm will play out, but a few days out shows a southern low that'll stay far enough south to keep us cold, allowing the northern fringe of moisture to fall as all snow:

It should be enough to shovel, but no so much that we shut the city down. A late start to snow season, but better late than never. I'll post much more coming up soon.

The Pattern Change Is Coming

We're heading in to the first full week of January, still without a snowflake in sight. The good news for fans of Winter is we're getting there, slowly but surely this week.

It's a gradual pattern shift, so first we start out with rain. Since we just finished the wettest year on record in Columbus, a little more rain shouldn't come as a shock to anyone. It's a two part system Monday through Tuesday. The first part brings the majority of our rain, while the second part brings some wind and a lot more winter-like air:

I wouldn't rule out some flakes on the backside of this Tuesday night, but that's not the payoff we're looking for. Our next chance at a storm has an outside shot at being our first legitimate snow maker of the season.

This is a southern low that'll start off the Texas Gulf coast. Since we're still 6+ days out, where it goes is still up for debate.

I don't care too much about what the models say this far out. Looking at the setup, I think we have two options. First option, the least likely one, is for this thing to curve up towards the Appalachians and bring us on the western edge of a decent snow maker. The second option is for this thing to stay flat, like every other system this season, and head straight across the Deep South and OTS:

If you've followed me long enough, you know which option I'm rooting for. But if you've lived in Central Ohio long enough, you know which one is least likely to happen too. Hint: the answer is the same.

There are other chances on the horizon past this six day window, all thanks to this slow regime change we'll be going under. But all I'm concerned about right now is this upcoming weekend. Just stick with us through one more warm system to start the week, and the hope is it'll all pay off with a back loaded winter.

At least we hope.