Here Comes Fall!

I didn't post The Weekly this week knowing I'd have something much more interesting to talk about later in the week.

FALL!

Today was our sixth 90° high of the month, a rarity for September around here. Luckily, that should be our last one of the year. Our dominating high pressure will finally be broken down by a cold front that'll not only move out the high, but bring us our first blast of cooler air.

For what seems like the past three months, high pressure has forced any storm systems up and over our area, meaning we haven't had any reprieve from the heat. Finally we will get a storm system that pushes all the way through the area and brings welcomed change:

If you look back at my blog over the years I always talk about there being at least 3-4 waves of cooler weather that swing through before we get snow. While it's way too early to talk about the S word, I will go ahead and say this is the first step down to weather cold enough to support snow.

Now that we're finally transitioning to fall, it's important to note that Fall is Central Ohio's second severe weather season. That being said, this is what predictive radar looks like for tomorrow evening:

This is a classic squall line setup, with cold air behind the front really sparking a line during the prime heating of the late afternoon. Right now the primary threat looks to be high wind with bowing segments and possible downbursts.

This will be a borderline severe day, probably more significant than we've seen in a couple months though. I think it'll definitely be an evening to keep an eye to the sky and listen for severe weather warnings. As of now I don't anticipate doing a LiveBlog tomorrow, but if conditions become more favorable for a widespread severe weather I may change my mind!

Either way, expect a much cooler weekend, with highs in the 60s-70s, followed by a work week that won't get much higher than the 70s either. Welcome, Fall. We missed you.

THE WEEKLY - September 9th - 15th

My last two posts had a lot of content, with lots to talk about thanks to Gordon and his remnants. But this week? Well luckily the weather will be kind of quiet here in Central Ohio.

Today is our "busiest" day as rain comes to an end across the area. a General 2-4" was seen across most places. We saw a few flood warnings near Cincinnati and the Ohio River, but for the most part we escaped flooding here in Central Ohio.

But after today? Snoozefest.

We'll start out with lingering showers on Monday and temps in the low 70s, and end up with sunny skies and mid 80s. You can see the progression as the week goes on, and we go from ugly fall like rain all the way back to summer in just a few days.

The only thing we can really keep an eye on now is Hurricane Florance.

This obviously will have an impact on the east coast with a landfall all but certain at this point, the above is the Euro ensembles. For a couple days now we've seen 90% of solutions hinting at a NC or SC landfall, where hurricane preps should be underway. This is important for us because there's an outside chance this could be our second tropical system to impact us in a week.

The Euro and GFS believe Florence makes its way to the Apps and turn away, but at six days away there's still time for this forecast to change. Here's where the Euro has Flo Satrday afternoon:

After tomorrow, this is our next possible chance of rain for the week. If that's our best shot, I feel pretty confident we'll have a decent looking week.

FLOOD WATCH: Heavy Rain Expected This Weekend

The NWS has a Flood Watch extending from Arkansas to Ohio in anticipation for a weekend of heavy rain and possibly dangerous flooding. The setup I described in The Weekly looks to be more of a problem that I originally thought. Part of that is because of us being wedged between two strong high pressure systems, but the other part would be the remnant moisture from Gordon.

Here's a visual of what I just described:

Expect rain to start overnight tonight and not to let up until early Monday morning. That's about 48 straight hours of moderate to heavy rain. That'll be enough to bring most rivers to flood stage and just about every small creek and stream out of their banks. Low lying areas you're used to seeing flood... will flood.

While the heavy rain is inevitable, what isn't set in stone yet is where the heaviest rain will fall. Here's why:

The Initial Offering

Rain on Saturday morning through late Saturday night will be of the light to moderate variety. This is moisture getting squeezed out of the frontal boundary, well ahead of the main forcing with ex-Gordon. But at this point, the former tropical entity will be taking over the entire front and influencing its strength and trajectory through the Ohio Valley. At that point Saturday it'll be a matter of whether the norther High is strong enough to keep the boundary from advancing too far north as a warm front and taking the greatest moisture with it. This could mean the difference between an inch and a trace in the first 12 hours of our system.

What's Left of Gordon

The question will probably be answered with what happens with the initial offering. I believe if we see a northward advancing warm front Saturday, we'll see a more northern solution for the track of the low pressure remnants. The heaviest precip will fall north and east of the center, so a track in to northern Ohio may limit our heavy rain exposure here in Central Ohio. Because of that, and the uncertainty of either of these two parts, models range from 1"-6" for right in the Columbus area, with more north and less south.

I think if I had to settle on a solution right now, I'd say things will be much heavier to the north of us. Places like Delaware and Marysville may see a high end of 3", while places south of I-70 may get an inch, or even less the further south you go. There's a good chance that places around the Ohio River may come out of this thing with a quarter of an inch or less, as long as this trend continues to support a northern track.

But What About Football?
With a kickoff scheduled for 3:30pm in Ohio Stadium on Saturday, here's a look ahead at what it'll look like inside:

Sorry, there's really no way around it, there will be rain almost the entire game. Our only chance of it letting up is if there's a more northerly push of a warm front, possibly giving us a reprieve. Otherwise, bring your rain gear.

I'll be posting updates all weekend via Twitter, be sure to follow!

THE WEEKLY - September 2nd - 8th

As you might have noticed, I didn't post at all during August. I actually feel like even on my old Wunderground blog I rarely posted in August. Why? Because August is the most boring month of weather all year long. Want proof. It was another month without any real severe weather to talk about, it was above normal wamth, and slightly above normal rain. Every day was just about the same: hot, with a chance of pop up afternoon storms.

So why not start September off the exact same way! Man, I can't wait until Winter.

This week will be hot. Each day will be above normal until the weekend. Here's what we've got going:

This map may look like a little bit of a mess, but that's because there's a lot going on leading to the end of the week. Our main player for hot weather is that high pressure over the eastern seaboard that is just pumping the heat and humidity towards our area, and keeping cooler air at bay - for now.

Below that you'll notice newly formed Tropical Storm Gordon over the Keys. This could bring us rain as we head a few days out. But before we get to that point, we have to get that high pressure out of here. The first blue line you see is a weak boundry that will actually go up and over our area in the next couple days and won't put a dent in our heat. It's that second front further west with the arctic high that'll eventually put an end to the 90s for us, hopefully for good.

Gordon will get caught up in the tail end of the first front and feed moisture in our area by the end of the week as the second front pushes in to our area.

For the most part, expect highs in the 90s through Thursday, with that day being our best chance for showers. By Saturday, temps will actually drop in to the lower 80s and we should slowly start that progression towards Fall here in the next few weeks.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm ready to get rid of the heat and humidity and enjoy being outside for once! Here's to hoping next week's update brings us another stair step down towards seasonable temps.