The Weather Whiplash

Well that was something, wasn't it? We experienced some snow to start out your work week, most of us seeing an inch or more throughout Central Ohio. But like any snow in April, it came and went very quick. Here's a timelapse from my weather camera over a five hour period:

Now the pendulum swings the other way, as we go from below freezing and snow to the 70s and severe weather on Tuesday! It's kind of hard to switch my habits, as I've been watching models for snowfall potential for so long and now I change gears to check out what should be our most active severe weather day in Central Ohio so far in 2018.

First the SPC:

Points from Columbus to the southwest are in the Enhanced Risk of severe weather tomorrow. Once this system gets itself together overnight I wouldn't even be surprised to see a Moderate Risk drawn in somewhere along the Ohio River between Indiana and Kentucky. If I were chasing tornadoes tomorrow, I'd setup camp in Louisville and watch the towers build.

It's an early season setup so the elements will not be off the charts for tornadoes, but by late afternoon we should see CAPE climb in to the 2000J/kg range for much of the southern half of Ohio:

A couple things to note: instability is going to be pretty dependent on us getting some afternoon sunshine between rounds of precipitation. If we get that, we could see storms build rapidly ahead of the forcing from the front by late afternoon in to the early evening hours. This is the part of the day where anything that develops will be super cellular in nature, but weak wind shear profiles do not promise that each storm has a chance to rotate. Tornado risk is non-zero, but I wouldn't make that my primary concern tomorrow. These storms will have strong updrafts so hail, heavy rain and straight line winds would be the biggest concern. BUT... do not rule out tornadoes.

Tomorrow is a tale of three rounds. The most unpredictable is the late afternoon super cell chance. We know we're getting rain tonight with the occasional rumble of thunder. And the other certainty is a squall line developing along the cold front will race in to the area overnight Tuesday. That'll bring our greatest chance for straight line winds and possible weak spin up tornadoes as well:

 I think tomorrow will be very interesting to watch. A lot going on and a lot could happen throughout the day. With that being said, here's my probabilities for what we will see in any part of Central Ohio tomorrow:

High Wind: 70%
Flash Flooding: 25%
Hail: 30%
Tornadoes: 10%

Tornado Watch: 40%
Severe Thunderstorm Watch: 95%

Given everything we're looking at on tap for tomorrow, I plan on posting a LiveBlog to follow everything. Check back in then!