The April Fool's Snow

I said yesterday I'd post again if any of our upcoming elements warranted looking at, and now it's safe to say we should probably just address the elephant in the room. On the first day of April, Easter Sunday, we will be looking at snow overnight.

Let's get the biggest problem out of the way: this should not have a major impact on road conditions overnight. We're forecasted to drop down to the upper 20's overnight, which should be good enough to accumulate on the grass. But roads have had days and days of above freezing temps, and as always once the sun rises it'll be like a blow torch on anything that actually sticks. So while I wouldn't be surprised if some slick spots occur in some areas where snowfall rates are greatest, I don't think this is a big worry for the morning commute.

Now if you want to focus strictly on the accumulation aspect, this is going to be a forecasting nightmare. While all precipitation will fall overnight, it's in an atmosphere that's still trying to fight yesterday's cold air with some Spring warmth.

We'll get precip starting a little before midnight for most of Central Ohio. It should start as a rain/snow mix for areas south of I-70 before quickly changing over to all snow for areas north of US Route 50:

Unfortunately I'm not on my usual laptop for making graphics, so no snow map this time, but I'll write out my thoughts on totals:

I'm going conservative on totals for this one for a couple reasons. First, some snow will initially melt on contact. It's possible the first half an inch doesn't even accumulate, meaning unless you're using an ice cold snow board, you're not seeing what some of the more aggressive models are throwing out there (NAM thinks up to 4")!

I think a 40 mile wide area along and north of I-70 will get the greatest accumulation since they stay all snow and are closest to the heaviest area of precip. I think a solid 2" of snow should be expected there. Everywhere else in Central Ohio we should expect 1" of snow. Impressive by April standards, I'd say. The heaviest precip will actually be in that all rain area from US 50 to the Ohio River, so they miss out but continue to add to their rain totals from a pretty wet last week or so.

These storm totals seem pretty set in stone to me, I think the only thing that could change in the next 12 hours would be track. I could see the snow line moving a little further north, since that seems to be what these quick shortwaves like to do in short term model guidence.

Next up we actually need to pay attention to a very slight severe potential Tuesday, then we look to next weekend for one last snow.