I think a lot of us worried this might happen... we skip Spring and go straight to Summer. While this is only a shift in the current pattern, it sure will feel a little more like early Summer this week instead of Spring.
Every day this week will be in the 70s or warmer, with Wednesday looking to be our warmest day of the year so far at 81°.
High pressure will dominate most of the week, parked just to our south and east, bringing warm southerly winds and sunny skies.
Wednesday will be the most interesting day of the week with what could be our largest severe weather outbreak of the season so far, affecting the Central US.
However as our high pressure slowly moves off the eastern seaboard, we could see enough of a moist, warm southerly flow Wednesday for a few pop up storms.
As of now I don't think this will be a large severe threat for us in Ohio, but obviously that could change in the next couple days. I'll be keeping an eye on our chances for pop up storms and post again if this becomes more of a threat than it is now.
Thursday night in to Friday we'll get some light rain before clearing up for what could be one of the nicest weekends of the year so far. It's still a little early to say for sure, but looks like low 70s and sun.
SITE NEWS!
Check back later this week for an exciting addition to the site for keeping up on the weather in Central Ohio!
Alright, I know I've said this a millions times by now, but I think we're officially on to Spring. Last Tuesday and Thursday we officially saw 0.3" each day at CMH, bringing whatI believe will be the last measureable snowfalls of the season.
Finally.
I love snow, as you can tell from the snow-centered coverage on this blog over the majority of the year. But going six straight months with snow is just a bit excessive, even for my taste.
Temperatures for the next week will be more Spring-like, even if it's not quite as warm as normal. We shouldn't see highs any lower than 59 degrees for the week with lows hovering in the 40s. Unfortunately for everyone hoping Spring would bring more sun and heat, well... this is Spring we are talking about. The season usually brings some showers.
Now back to the fact this is a snow lovers blog, this storm that'll roll through Monday through Wednesday would have been a dream to have back in January. Why? It's a southern low!
But instead of snow we'll just see seasonably cooler weather, a few days of rain and lots of clouds.
That'll set up for a nice end to the work week, kind of a carbon copy of the last couple days. Sunny. Mid 60s. That'll be nice to end the week with, but then we have another system crossing the country that'll bring us some rain on Saturday. Right now I wouldn't call it a rain out, especially since it's too far out to really get a good idea of how the weekend storm will shape up, but it won't be a completely dry weekend either.
Weekly Probabilities:
Heavy Rain: 20%
Severe Storms: 5%
Being Better Than Winter: 100%
This is a new weekly feature I plan on posting every Sunday on the site to chronicle the week ahead. Don't expect a seven day forecast graphic with temperature predictions, though. This is an overview of the weather systems that'll be affecting our area, and what kind of crappy rollercoaster we're in for over the next week.
Let's start with Winter first.
On the first day of March I posted "Goodbye Winter." Then on the last day of March I posted "Winter's Last Stand." One of these days I'll be right about Winter's eventual exit. For the start of the week it sure doesn't look like Winter's ready to bow out just yet.
We have to start out with the storm system that's blowing through right now. Our 80s and 70s of the past few days have been replaced by 50s and rain, and soon we'll be close to freezing. The temperature map below is probably one of my favorite I've ever seen. A backdoor cold front coliding with a strong Plains system over Eastern Ohio means the end of our Spring-like weather for a few days:
Where you see the 30s crashing in from the west overnight tonight is where our backside snow showers should kick in. 850mb temps will be well below freezing so the CAA circling around this monster low pressure will allow any precip probably to fall in a freezing form for most of the day Monday.
After a cool and blustery Monday and Tuesday, we should have a closer to normal rest of the week with upper 50s and low 60s with some clouds and light winds. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week before another cold front comes crashing in, but luckily we won't tumble as far Thursday as we will tomorrow.
Overall the Euro weekly's average us out a little below normal on the temps:
Most of the US will feel roughly at or below normal for the week, but I feel like we're finally turning a corner. Our first 80 degree day of the year on Friday really helped bring out the blooms, get the grass to start growing, and make everyone feel like that maybe... just maybe, we'll have Spring yet!
I'll post more this week if anything significant comes up. Luckily we don't have a chance for any accumulating snow or severe weather this week.
9:11pm
I think the worst is over. The storms that blew up this afternoon and this evening seem to have taken some of the steam out of the approaching squall line along the cold front.
Originally I kind of thought this last round of storms would be the worst, with high straight line winds and possible embedded short lived tornadoes. Instead the line seems to have become pretty broken with no storm or tornado warnings in sight:
Today sure has been a wild ride. Thanks everyone for reading.
8:14pm
This is probably some of the coolest time lapse video I've ever taken from my roof mounted weather cam. If you watch closely on the left side of the screen, away from the rain shaft, you can see some rotation. No tornado reports from around here, but plenty of witnesses said they saw the rotation approaching Canal Winchester:
6:31pm
That was interesting. For the first time this year I was genuinely worried we were about to take a direct hit from a tornado here in Canal Winchester. Dogs and kids in the basement while I watched out the front door and saw a sudden wind shift that got my attention.
I'll post roof video shortly, it's pretty impressive. 5:29pm
Tornado Warning now for Columbus. It appears the storm has weakened some now, but there's still enough rotation to warrant the Warning.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the southern part of this line in Pickaway.
Send pics of any funnel clouds you may see.
5:13pm
Residents of London, OH should be underground right now. This storm is holding together and still looks capable of dropping a tornado. Earlier when it was west of South Charleston it looked a lot more promising, but this thing still means business.
This storm will be in Galloway within the next 15 minutes and downtown Columbus shortly after:
4:57pm
Ok, round two is quickly turning in to more of a bow echo event, as opposed to singular celled. This means tornadoes are less likely, but high wind and hail are more likely.
But don't completely rule out tornadoes. That cell in Dayton keeps dropping tornado warnings, and it's headed right toward Central Ohio:
4:10pm
There's our first Tornado Warning of the day, near Dayton for a HP cell with a small rotation. This will be the first of many of these:
3:18pm
A busy day at work has prevented me from updating this as much as I'd hoped. Here's what's happening:
Tornado Watch
The SPC has a Tornado Watch out across the area until 8pm tonight. That may even be extended later depending on what happens with a QLCS developing late tonight.
Heavy Rain:
I've gotten 1.37" so far today in Canal Winchester, but areas north have seen 2-3" already. Even though the heavy, training storms have moved out of the area, our ground is completely saturated. A storm with heavy rain could bring brief flash flooding.
Setting Up For Storms:
We have clearing in Southwest Ohio that'll get close to Central Ohio, which will be a favorable spot for severe storms to fire up:
Storms have already developed in Southern Indiana and have become more linear than single celled. That could lessen the tornado risk, but we'll just have to see if more actually develop in the clear area and move this way. As of now temps are still cool, in the mid 50s. It's in Southwest Ohio where the clearing has brought the warmth and higher dewpoints.
I'm really interested to see what happens next.
9:03am
An awful busy morning across Central Ohio with a lot of different threats to keep an eye on across the area. First, the flooding, which has become a bigger issue with the heavy rain that's setup across Central Ohio and raising the Flood Watches further north in to our area. At this rate I don't think it's out of the question that we could see a couple inches in some areas.
Storms are already firing on the southern base of this morning's precip shield, which could lead to some training of heavy rain across the I-70 corridor later today:
As of now I think that means the severe threat will be pushed further south where breaks in the clouds will be allowed to develop by late morning. It's there that instability will be able to build and single cell thunderstorms will pop. That's where I think the risk is for now. This is a fluid situation and could change if breaks in the clouds happen further north toward our area. As of now the HRRR still simulates thunderstorms breaking in the late afternoon to early evening hours across Central Ohio, so it's a wait and see game. I'm basing my idea off of experience, so we'll have to see if the models win out.
Well that was something, wasn't it? We experienced some snow to start out your work week, most of us seeing an inch or more throughout Central Ohio. But like any snow in April, it came and went very quick. Here's a timelapse from my weather camera over a five hour period:
Now the pendulum swings the other way, as we go from below freezing and snow to the 70s and severe weather on Tuesday! It's kind of hard to switch my habits, as I've been watching models for snowfall potential for so long and now I change gears to check out what should be our most active severe weather day in Central Ohio so far in 2018.
First the SPC:
Points from Columbus to the southwest are in the Enhanced Risk of severe weather tomorrow. Once this system gets itself together overnight I wouldn't even be surprised to see a Moderate Risk drawn in somewhere along the Ohio River between Indiana and Kentucky. If I were chasing tornadoes tomorrow, I'd setup camp in Louisville and watch the towers build.
It's an early season setup so the elements will not be off the charts for tornadoes, but by late afternoon we should see CAPE climb in to the 2000J/kg range for much of the southern half of Ohio:
A couple things to note: instability is going to be pretty dependent on us getting some afternoon sunshine between rounds of precipitation. If we get that, we could see storms build rapidly ahead of the forcing from the front by late afternoon in to the early evening hours. This is the part of the day where anything that develops will be super cellular in nature, but weak wind shear profiles do not promise that each storm has a chance to rotate. Tornado risk is non-zero, but I wouldn't make that my primary concern tomorrow. These storms will have strong updrafts so hail, heavy rain and straight line winds would be the biggest concern. BUT... do not rule out tornadoes.
Tomorrow is a tale of three rounds. The most unpredictable is the late afternoon super cell chance. We know we're getting rain tonight with the occasional rumble of thunder. And the other certainty is a squall line developing along the cold front will race in to the area overnight Tuesday. That'll bring our greatest chance for straight line winds and possible weak spin up tornadoes as well:
I think tomorrow will be very interesting to watch. A lot going on and a lot could happen throughout the day. With that being said, here's my probabilities for what we will see in any part of Central Ohio tomorrow:
High Wind: 70% Flash Flooding: 25% Hail: 30% Tornadoes: 10%
Tornado Watch: 40% Severe Thunderstorm Watch: 95%
Given everything we're looking at on tap for tomorrow, I plan on posting a LiveBlog to follow everything. Check back in then!
I said yesterday I'd post again if any of our upcoming elements warranted looking at, and now it's safe to say we should probably just address the elephant in the room. On the first day of April, Easter Sunday, we will be looking at snow overnight.
Let's get the biggest problem out of the way: this should not have a major impact on road conditions overnight. We're forecasted to drop down to the upper 20's overnight, which should be good enough to accumulate on the grass. But roads have had days and days of above freezing temps, and as always once the sun rises it'll be like a blow torch on anything that actually sticks. So while I wouldn't be surprised if some slick spots occur in some areas where snowfall rates are greatest, I don't think this is a big worry for the morning commute.
Now if you want to focus strictly on the accumulation aspect, this is going to be a forecasting nightmare. While all precipitation will fall overnight, it's in an atmosphere that's still trying to fight yesterday's cold air with some Spring warmth.
We'll get precip starting a little before midnight for most of Central Ohio. It should start as a rain/snow mix for areas south of I-70 before quickly changing over to all snow for areas north of US Route 50:
Unfortunately I'm not on my usual laptop for making graphics, so no snow map this time, but I'll write out my thoughts on totals:
I'm going conservative on totals for this one for a couple reasons. First, some snow will initially melt on contact. It's possible the first half an inch doesn't even accumulate, meaning unless you're using an ice cold snow board, you're not seeing what some of the more aggressive models are throwing out there (NAM thinks up to 4")!
I think a 40 mile wide area along and north of I-70 will get the greatest accumulation since they stay all snow and are closest to the heaviest area of precip. I think a solid 2" of snow should be expected there. Everywhere else in Central Ohio we should expect 1" of snow. Impressive by April standards, I'd say. The heaviest precip will actually be in that all rain area from US 50 to the Ohio River, so they miss out but continue to add to their rain totals from a pretty wet last week or so.
These storm totals seem pretty set in stone to me, I think the only thing that could change in the next 12 hours would be track. I could see the snow line moving a little further north, since that seems to be what these quick shortwaves like to do in short term model guidence.
Next up we actually need to pay attention to a very slight severe potential Tuesday, then we look to next weekend for one last snow.
