Now Some April Snow

Sure, it was 75 degrees yesterday, but who's ready for some snow tonight? This isn't a joke, the backside of the cold front that blew through here this morning is bringing in some seriously cold air.

Don't trust snowfall accumulation maps you see from models on this one. First, the ground and roads are still really warm from several days well above freezing. We haven't been below freezing in 4 days, and haven't had sustained freezing temps since March 22-23. So while the atmosphere is going to support some snow tonight, I don't think the ground will hold it.

In fact, I don't think Central Ohio's surface temps will ever get below freezing over the next 24 hours, only 850mb temps will help us with snow. 

Expect rain to change over to snow sometime after dark tonight:

Spring is still that month of transition. Quite a transition here, from a tornado threat to snow in a day.

April 5th Severe Weather

UPDATE: 7:50pm
Here comes the storms in to Central Ohio. Half of our area got a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and now we have a couple warnings around here. So far no tornadoes, so just expect some gusts and small hail:

ORIGINAL POST:
The Southeast is getting in on the severe weather first thing this morning, but as the day progresses, I think we see a second and maybe even third area of risk setting up. I've highlighted the areas I think could see tornadoes late this evening on the 8pm HRRR simulated radar:

The southern area over east Tennessee and eastern Kentucky has the most favorable environment. High instability, high shear, it looks like a classic Spring tornadic setup. Further north in southern Indiana I think being that close to the low pressure center in the heat of the day, there's a better chance for individual supercells in the afternoon.

The reason I have Central Ohio highlighted is because all of these storms in southern Indiana will eventually make their way in to our area in the overnight. I think they weaken with the loss of daytime heating, but they don't die.

I think by 10pm we will end up seeing a quasi-linear squall move in to our area. By then the severe chances will have lessened, but they're not zero.

I think we have a 50% chance of a Tornado Watch today, probably issued late this afternoon through the overnight. However I'm not very high on this being a huge tornado outbreak for Central Ohio. Still, something to watch.

BONUS WEATHER:
What if I told you we actually weren't done with snow? Yeah, I know, I just wrote this whole post the other day about winter officially being over. But right now we're looking at a chance the backside of this potent low could drop a couple inches in our area.

I'll post about this tomorrow, once the severe threat has passed!

Strong Storms Possible Tomorrow

Now that we're getting in to a more Spring-like feel outside, it's time we start seeing more Spring-like storms. Tomorrow evening brings a pretty good chance of that.

A low pressure passing just west of us will definitively bring enough lift in the atmosphere, with a 110knot jet aloft providing plenty of spin. Models for tomorrow afternoon look pretty fierce with strong helicity spinning around the 993mb low:

I think the only reason we may not see the intense storms that other parts of the country may see is because of timing.

By the time the low pressure gets in to Indiana and can bring enough lift to the atmosphere, the sun should be going down and CAPE values won't be allowed to grow at all. As of now the SPC has the Enhanced Risk limited to southwest Ohio and southern Indiana:

A larger moderate risk exists in the Southeast because of the instability they'll be afforded with the afternoon sun. But I wouldn't count out a second moderate risk being targeted in southern Indiana, northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio sometime tomorrow.

This is the first time this season we've had a setup with a low pressure passing so close to the area. Setups like these usually lend themselves to discrete supercells, and I feel like there's a chance we could see some just southwest of the area tomorrow.

I'll write more tomorrow as this event happens.

Columbus Winter by the Numbers

It's April 2nd, and while snow isn't completely out of the question in April, I think it's safe to say this year we won't be seeing accumulation again in 2017 until sometime near the end of the year.

According to the measurements out at John Glenn (going to be hard not calling it Port Columbus), we ended up with 9.3" of snow for the season. Going back to 1930, the first full year of record keeping, that would put is in 6th place for least snowiest seasons here in Columbus. Keep in mind, the NWS considers "snow seasons" to be July to July, not just inside of the winter months.

Since record keeping started, our average last day with 1" or more of snow accumulation has been March 10th, which means I feel pretty confident in saying, especially this year, we're done with the snow. But as recently as 2005, we saw accumulating snow as late as April 24th! But, keep in mind, we also had 37" of snow that season. This season is just a little different.

We should still expect the occasional freezing temp. We average the middle of April for seeing our last morning below freezing, but just last year we went all the way to May 16th with freezing temps!

With the April sun getting higher in the sky, days are longer and any snow that could potentially fall would really have to happen in the overnight hours. Even if we start the day cold, any storms that come in to our region would just be fighting against the sun to accumulate any snow.

So instead of looking for white on the ground, get ready for some storms to roll across the horizon. We're officially in severe season!