A Nasty Halloween 2019

Halloween always seems to be somewhat frightful around Central Ohio when it comes to our weather. If it seems like I've written about stormy Trick Or Treating before, it's because I have. I would have more posts to link to if Weather Underground still had archives, but 7 years ago we also dealt with some Halloween snowflakes on the backside of Sandy.

So here we are again. Starting this afternoon we will be rainy, leading all the way in to a possibly ugly Halloween evening for all the kids going house to house. Lets set it up:

A large sprawling storm is entering out area today and will be with us through tomorrow evening, with two different rounds of precip.

Round 1 should start a little after lunchtime for Central Ohio, with areas west getting wet first. This will be a moderate to heavy at times rain that'll last well in to the evening. Expect 0.5" to 1" throughout the area with this round.

We'll have a few hours overnight without rain before round 2 approaches just before sunrise.

Round 2 really is the main event. We're looking at heavier rain, winds picking up, and the much anticipated FROPA with plummeting temperatures. We'll miss out on severe thunderstorms here in Ohio, as stability just won't be there. Perhaps if we had some clearing out ahead of round 2, and better timing for diurnal heating we would be looking at a severe risk, but I think at best we're looking at heavy rain with the front approaching and perhaps a clap of thunder. Overall the odds are very low on even a chance of thunder.

Trick Or Treat

The big question that's been floating out there for days is how this will affect the little ones out and about on Thursday evening. The news is good and bad.

Models have been speeding up the frontal passage over the past couple days. The NAM-3K currently shows rain splitting Central Ohio at 5pm on Thursday, which would mean most of us should be dry 6pm. I actually think this ends up speeding up a little more once the front approaches, so I feel pretty confident in saying we shouldn't need the umbrellas except perhaps in far eastern Fairfield and Licking Counties at the onset.

The bad news is with the FROPA comes very gusty winds and cold temperatures. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we see a Wind Advisory issued for tomorrow night, with winds gusting as high as 50mph heading in to the overnight hours. For the early evening, it'll be gusty and temps starting in the mid 50s but probably dropping to the upper 30s by the end of Trick or Treating.

What About The Snow?

You probably noticed snow on the predictive radar image, and I can't rule out a few flakes flying Thursday late night in to Friday morning. But as you can see in the image below, any chance for accumulation will stay well north of us:

Don't expect to wake up to school closings and snow on the lawn Friday morning, but this does mean we're getting closer and closer to our first snow of the season!

Here Comes the Relief

Temperatures will reach 90° for the fourth day in a row here in Central Ohio, and for what I anticipate will be the last time in 2019. The monster ridge that has been persistent across the eastern US for what seems like months will finally lose its influence on our weather pattern starting this afternoon.

Expect a cold front and a regiem change late this afternoon. Usually large temperature swings see severe storms, but this is a relatively dry airmass taking over an already dry atmosphere, so there's nothing there to spark this afternoon. Northeastern Ohio may see some storms, but for the most part we'll stay dry:

While we won't be getting a much needed drink (more about that in a moment), we will be getting our first real taste of fall for all of us in Ohio. Watching this temperature animation over the next several hours is very satisfying:

We may not get out of the 50's tomorrow afternoon along and north of Columbus! That's quite a shock to the system compared to all of these record breaking days at the start of the month.

Here in Canal Winchester I recorded 0.78" of rain for the entire month of September, and I'm sitting at 0" so far in October. This has led to crunchy lawns and dried out crops across Central Ohio. During the middle of the year the rain seemed to come at a steady pace and keep us in good shape, but now most of Ohio is considered Abnormally Dry, with Moderate Drought taking place in Western Ohio:

It looks like our next good shot at rain is at the end of the weekend. Unfortunately October is traditionally our driest month anyway, so here's to hoping along with the falling temps we can buck the precipitation trend also!