Winter's Last Hurrah

Over the past couple weeks we've seen our first 70 degree days, our first completely cloudless days and some spring time thunderstorms. So hey, why not revert back to Winter? Ya know, for old time's sake.

A very strong cold front will cross the region later this evening, bringing the kind of deep temperature gradient we usually see with mid-Fall storm systems. Temperatures will get close to 60º this afternoon before dropping to the mid 20s by sunrise tomorrow. That's a 35º temperature change!

It's not just a temperature swing we'll see today, but heavy rain right through the heart of Central Ohio. Latest models show 1.5-2.0" of rain by sunset this evening, which could lead to some localized flooding. Mostly standing water will be the threat today, with river levels having dropped low enough to not threaten a huge rise in water levels.

But the big story will be the potential for one last snowfall before we transition in to traditional Spring weather. After the front passes through this evening and temps drop close to freezing, we might have enough moisture on the backside of this system to give us a light dusting of snow:

The greatest threat for accumulating snow will be in Western and Northern Ohio, but depending on how quick the moisture pulls out as the front passes by, I think we have a shot at least at some snow showers after midnight.

I don't think this warrants a snow map, but at the most I think north of I-70 could see half an inch here in Central Ohio. Northern Ohio will probably be the winner with 2-3" on the ground, but even if we got that here, none will stick to the roads. Surface temps will not fall off nearly as quickly as air temps, so we could see snow in the low 30s, but it'll be melting on roads in the low 50s.

Sunday and Monday will stay well below average before recovering for the rest of the work week. I feel pretty confident saying this should be our last chance at accumulating snow until next season.

Goodbye Winter, I'll miss you!

Central US Blizzard Brings Storms for Ohio

More eye candy of this epic storm. #thundersnow. #WinterStormUlmer #BombCyclone pic.twitter.com/I9YzTsWcIn

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) March 13, 2019

On the anniversary of The Storm of the Century we've got a doppelganger crossi.ng the Midwest tonight. 60-80mph wind gusts accompany heavy snow to bring the biggest blizzard of the season for the country. This one will probably go down in history as one of the lowest pressure inland storms in US history.

Usually I don't cover much weather outside of the Ohio Valley area, but this storm will have an affect on us soon. Here's a look at the SPC's severe weather outlook for tomorrow:

Today's low pressure bomb has hit its max strength and will now head northeast toward the Great Lakes region. While areas like Minnesota will see the wintry side of this storm, we're in the warm sector, which means we will get the severe side also.

This will be a high shear, low cape event.

Tomorrow will be the first day since last October we will be in the 70s. With warm temps and the possibility of clouds breaking up ahead of the front, we could actually be looking at a potent early season storm. If we have enough sun before the front, that may give us enough instability to pair up with the shear.

On top of everything else, we have yet another Wind Advisory for tomorrow. This one is a little different than the last couple wind events because storms will actually accompany the wind. That means any storms will bring even higher winds than normal.

The NAM shows possible wind gusts for tomorrow night:

I think tomorrow could be a very eventful day. I'll be posting on Twitter and possibly going with a LiveBlog tomorrow evening as the storm approaches.

Slow Transition to Spring

Sometimes we turn the calendar to March and it's like we flip a switch. We get a quick warm up and suddenly we're in Spring. This month, however, I don't think we're really see Spring for another couple weeks. At least not a constant Spring.

For at least the next 10 days, this is how the weather pattern will play out. Yes, it'll make for an active time for us, but it will not allow prolonged warmth:

Like we will have tonight in to tomorrow, what we should expect in this pattern is to be on the warm side of deepening lows, bringing us rain and wind, with a strong shot of cold on the backside. We'll have one day of warm, followed by 2-3 days of cold until the next storm moves in.

I think we've seen our coldest day until next Winter already. I recorded 7 degrees on March 5th, and we may not even see air that cold again until January 2020! Just because our coldest air is behind us doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods. I think we still have an outside chance of one more accumulating snow before everything is said and done.

Just like our slow decent in to Winter, we'll have a slow climb out of it as well.

Sunday Storm Is Weak

I had some reservations about Sunday's storm and now I understand why. Spring storms should not be trusted. A setup you've seen a dozen times this winter can act a totally different way in the Spring. Surprisingly it's a blast of cold air that messes things up for us this time.

An arctic blast will be pushing the low further south than earlier models suggested. We went from a significant snow to a small accumulation.

Sunday's storm will now only bring us 1-2", mostly daytime accumulation, with warm road surface temps that will keep roads wet. This went from a potential blockbuster storm to a weak Sunday system.

After Sunday, expect highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for the new couple days.

QUICK UPDATE: Sunday Snow

Not a whole lot to update from yesterday, but we are beginning to narrow down the track and hone in on some snowfall numbers. Here's what we know:

PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
Early on I had a fear this could slide far enough north to include a mix along and south of I-70. At this time though, the center of the low should stay far enough south to leave us as all snow.

DAYTIME SNOWFALL
I thought maybe we had a shot at this being up there as our biggest snow of the season if it snows overnight. Right now the timing appears to be all daylight hours on Sunday. This is a problem for accumulation.

As I mentioned yesterday, daytime is not great for accumulating snow in March. With the higher sun angle, some snow may melt before even having a chance to stick. We could have plenty of snow in the air, and hardly any on the ground.

NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
In the end it appears this may just be a moderate accumulation event. This system will stay far enough south to not hit us with a jackpot zone, and the daytime snow isn't very favorable for snow lovers.

There's still time for this path to move some, but most models have it riding the southern Tennessee border. That's further south than I said yesterday, and so in response the snow totals have dropped for our area. The low will transition to a coastal low after it passes due south of us, so precip will cut off quickly in the late afternoon.

I'll post tomorrow with snow predictions for our area. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some Winter Weather Advisories for southern Ohio by this time tomorrow.