Heat Wave Weekend Begins

It's 11:30am on Saturday and it's hot outside. This is not news, because we've known this heat was coming for a while. But just in case you don't want to go outside to experience it yourself, I'll give you a report. It's hot. There ya go.

We have a "ring of fire" ridge set up every summer at some point. The reason this one is getting so much publicity is because of its intensity. We haven't seen pure heat and humidity combined like this since 2012. If you remember that summer, it was hot and dry. It was a summer where lawns died and no one wanted to go outside.

We could have a remake of that.

For comparison, the warmest temperature I have recorded in Canal Winchester on my weather station since 2012 was 94.3° back on 7/18/13. Tomorrow's forecasted high temperature? 95°. 

But lets not ignore today, where we should easily see the low 90s in Central Ohio. A couple of our northern counties are in the Heat Advisory along with Cincinnati:

Right now it looks like Monday could be our best shot at dropping below 90° for the entire week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms that day. What we won't see is triple digits at all during this heat wave. Why? Humidity. The dewpoints that are causing us to be even more miserable are actually a contributing factor to keeping our ambient temperature lower than it could get. Dry air can heat up more than moist air, so while our heat index will top out well over 100°, the actual temperature shouldn't be allowed to top out more than the mid 90's.

It could always be worse. July 6-7 2012, we topped out at 101° both days. It's going to be hot and uncomfortable, but for now I don't see this heat wave being nearly as bad as the Summer of 2012. 

Here Comes the Heat

Now that we have today's failed severe weather event out of the way, here comes the heat:

The NWS has started to put watches, warnings and advisories out in anticipation of the heat dome setting in. This will be a multi-day and possibly even a multi-week event. We already see the gray color in Cincinnati for an air quality alert tomorrow, which will probably get extended for a few more days.

It's been 6 years since we've hit 100° (June and July of 2012), but I think there's at least an outside chance we hit the century mark in the next 7-10 days.

Starting Friday, most models have us at 90° or above for the next six days:

A lot of people have been talking about how hot the GFS has been running the past few days, but regardless if we get that warm, I think the heat index easily hits 100° at least one of the next seven days.

This is just a primer for what we have to come. I'll be posting more in the coming days about what should be our first real heatwave in a while.

THE WEEKLY - June 24 - 30

Last week THE WEEKLY talked about how that dome of high pressure moved east and allowed a stormy pattern to take over. Well guess what? High pressure is coming back, and it could be the first true heatwave of the season for most of the eastern US.

Before we get to the big heat and humidity we have to make our way through one more storm system that'll move through on Wednesday:

A storm system from the northern Plains will head our way, firing daytime storms along the cold front and also well out ahead. Above is the NAM simulated radar from Tuesday night where you can see a storm complex that develops out in the hot and humid warm sector. I think we'll deal with some overnight storms Tuesday before getting the frontal storms Wednesday. Already a couple days out I can imagine our Wednesday storms will depend on how quickly our atmosphere recovers from leftover morning storms.

After that, prepare for the torch:

We're about a week out from the start of the really hot weather, but from this temperature anomily map you can tell the heart of this heat wave will be centered over the Great Lakes. The 8-10 day time frame has all the making of extreme heat, one that I feel confident right now saying we will probably see triple digits then or soon after. We could be in high heat through the second week of July.

We haven't experienced a true heat wave like this in a while. Summer of 2012 is the last time I remember something this extreme setting up. 

But keep in mind, it's still a week away, so this isn't set in stone. Many jumped the gun and thought our mini heat wave last week would be bigger, too. For right now I want to be conservative, like I usually am, but a hot a dry pattern seems more likely than not.

If storms become strong on Wednesday I'll post. Otherwise expect another post before next Sunday about our potential heat wave.

THE WEEKLY - June 17-23

Welcome to THE WEEKLY where the name of the game will be... hot and unsettled weather. Actually I could probably write that post any week of the Summer, but this week will be textbook Summer.

First we have the high heat and humidity to get through the rest of Sunday and Monday. High pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley is holding strong for a couple more days, allowing building heat and occasional afternoon storms. So far today it's been nasty. Officially over at Rickenbacker we haven't hit a heat index over 100°, but here at home I've seen a heat index as high as 106°. That may be a bit aggressive considering the dewpoint I've been getting is 5° more than the local airports, but it still feels extremely humid out there.

That high pressure will be dissipating and moving offshore by Tuesday, allowing a change in the pattern:

After one more day of head indicies around and above 100° on Monday, we'll go through a long term pattern where we should see multiple storm systems diving in out of the Northern Plains. As of now the greatest chance for rain looks like next weekend as the biggest system moves in, but in the meantime starting Tuesday we should see a strong chance for showers and thunderstorms every afternoon. Heat will subside in to the low to mid 80s, but dewpoints will stay in the 70s every day except Thursday.

Prepare for the middle of Summer, just a few weeks early