First Teens of the Season

'Tis the season for wild weather swings. We're going from tornadoes Sunday night to temps in the teens Friday night. That's a pretty active week if you ask me.

Look at the NAM for Saturday morning. A large section of the eastern US dipping below freezing:

This is a big deal considering we've only spent a few hours below freezing so far this season. This morning's 27° was the coldest I've recorded at home, but that low should be beat easily the next two nights. Right now the NWS lows are forecasted for 23° and 18° respectively.

Unfortunately for snow lovers, this cold blast is as dry as they come. Low temps like this so early in the season usually doesn't come with precip, so our best chance in November would be some sort of hybrid southern low or a clipper, neither of which is on the horizon.

We're still going to have to keep an eye out for a potential storm on Thanksgiving week that could mess up some travel plans. I'll keep you updated.

Sunday's Heavy Rain Brings Another Cooldown

Well that was eventful. High wind, heavy rains, and so far at least one confirmed tornado. I had a co-worker say this morning, "wow, you don't see that in November!" Well, sometimes you do, but I agree this wasn't an ordinary November frontal passage.

Below is from the NWS Wilmington with reported rain totals. I received 3.07"

This storm would be our third big front to pass through this season, which means we're close to a permanent cool down to winter-like weather. Expect highs in the 50s the rest of the week, with an even bigger cool down coming in the mid range. I'll post more about that later this week.

Strong Front Bring Storms to Central Ohio

Original Post: 5:07pm
Latest Update (Below): 7:26pm
For those of you keeping score at home, we've already seen two strong fronts this season, slowly dropping our average temperature and in the case of the last one... bringing some flakes.

When you combine the forces at play - warm and cold air masses - eventually you could end up with a day like today where severe weather is at play.

Luckily the SPC has been on this for the past few days, keeping us in a slight to enhanced risk for storms this evening. So far this has verified. We've seen large, violent tornadoes in Indiana and extreme Western Ohio already today, and now that system is headed this way.

Here's what the regional radar looks like right now:

So what we've seen so far is just the tip of the system. We'll be dealing with this all night.

Areas north and west of I-71 are under a Tornado Watch, and all of Central Ohio is under a Flash Flood Watch. This is a long duration event, but there IS good news:

What I've highlighted above is that in the short term we should be "saved" by some deteriorating parts of the MCS that should eliminate some instability. The next limiting factor will be the setting sun. But... I don't promise that this will eliminate all chance of severe weather.

I think some of these storms could have staying power as they move in from the west. I'll update this post if any become severe in our immediate area.

UPDATE: 5:41pm
Keep this in mind tonight, even if the severe threat does not materialize in our local area, heavy rain will be a real threat. More than likely 1"+ for everyone, with locally heavier:

UPDATE: 6:06pm
Expect the lightning activity, heavy rain and winds to pick up in Central Ohio here over the next 1-2 hours:

Also, the SPC is discussing replacing the Tornado Watch with another watch once it expires at 7pm. The real question will be whether they issue another Tornado Watch, or downgrade to a Thunderstorm Watch with the main threat being high winds.

UPDATE: 6:26pm
Here we go, our first warning in the area, it's a Tornado Warning for London and West Jefferson. You can see the small kink in the squall line, where the tornado could develop:

UPDATE: 6:54pm
The Tornado Warning was dropped after the rotation broadened quickly, but a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northern Franklin County quickly followed.

This decent bow echo could produce some decent gusts, but more importantly heavy rains:

Just as I added this to the post, another Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for all of eastern Franklin, and some of Licking and Fairfield Counties. This line should pack a decent punch for November.

UPDATE: 7:26pm
As the line of storms advances through our area, the severe threat should greatly diminish. All of Central Ohio is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 1am, but I expect that to be cancelled early as our threat is quickly shifting to a flood risk.

More than likely this will be the last update. Keep away from flooded roads overnight.