January 12-13 Summary

Boy do I like over achievers! That's what this storm system was. Looking at the setup days out, and even the day before, I just didn't see anything that would make this a high impact storm. I figured we would be on the northern fringe and we would see a dry slot midday that would minimize accumulations.

Well, I was wrong on both counts.

We woke up Saturday morning to the storm taking an unexpected jog northward. That moved us from the fringe to a strong area for accumulation. Then I thought we would see the dry slot in the afternoon, and it appeared! You'd think that northern jog would put us in a prime location for that dry slot, but it stayed south of Central Ohio. Some of Southern Ohio and the Cincinnati area got a break, but for almost the entire day we stayed in an area of light to moderate snowfall.

Here's how the snow totals played out for us here in Central Ohio:

There was a good zone of heavy snow from around Wilmington to Lancaster that was the sweet spot, just north of where the dry slot cut down on accumulation. I had called from 2-3" for most of Central Ohio, but I was off, we ended up with twice that. I measured 5.5" here in Canal Winchester.

This became a high impact event as the evening went on. Snowfall rates eventually got high enough to make it tough on ODOT to keep up with the plowing, and travel was pretty dicey by sunset. All counties were at least under a Level 1 Snow Emergency, with most counties a row further south being in Level 2.

These impacts could have been worse if it were a work week, and this snow fell over a shorter period. We had almost 24 hours of snow, but if it were in 6-12 hours, that could have brought a lot of our area to a halt.

Now we move on to our next storm that I'll start covering as the week starts. Less than a week out and it's looking like we could have a repeat storm. Almost identical to this weekend's setup. I'll keep you updated.

January 12th Storm: One Day Out

Here we are on the Eve of our first storm of the season. Nothing's changed, the models have been incredibly consistent over the past few days. We're looking at a midwest low (instead of the Gulf low I thought we would originally see) that'll eventually transition to a coastal low as it passes just south of us.

It's that transferring of energy to the new parent low that'll be the difference in a couple inches of snow here in Central Ohio.

If you've followed along with the latest NWS snow forecasts or even other local meteorologists, you might have heard of some higher end snow totals. I've seen some places calling for as much as 7" of snow. If we see 7" here in Central Ohio, it'll be the most over achieving system I've ever seen in my life.

Instead, here's what I think we'll see here:

Now I know this is probably less than most outlets have promised, but there's a reason I'm going conservative: it's not that powerful of a storm. It's just a fact. This is a decent mid-latitude system that'll give us periods of moderate snowfall, but lets not kid ourselves, this isn't a blockbuster. It won't over achieve and it won't under achieve.

I talked earlier about that transfer to the coast, and that's the part of the storm where you'll see snow suddenly cut off. It'll be like turning the burner off on a pot of boiling water. The snow will just dissipate. I anticipate that happening sometime Saturday night, right before midnight. The sooner this happens, the lower the snowfall amounts.

Expect this to be a wet snow, roads will be slushy and nasty, and we'll probably see a couple Snow Emergencies in our hilly counties to the southeast. The NWS issued the Winter Weather Advisory I predicted, and it's our first of the season. The first of many? Well we can only hope.

I'll be tweeting throughout the storm tomorrow, so be sure to follow https://twitter.com/wxcentralohio for updates all day tomorrow!

January 12th Storm: Two Days Out

Here we are just a couple days away from our first storm of the season. It's been very surpising how solid the models have been, we've been locked in on a moderate snowfall for a couple of days now.

I think snowfall totals could be tricky for a couple of reasons. First, we're not quite on the far northern edge of the precip like it looked we would be. As of now, we are going to be getting in to the heavier band, closer to the rain/snow line. That will give us heavier snowfall rates. As of now it looks like most of Central Ohio should be in the snow by noon on Saturday:

Snow will move in quick and bring us moderate snowfall rates. This is coming after 3+ days of sub 30 temperatures, so everything that falls will stick instantly.

Even though I say we'll be closer to the snow/rain line, I believe all of Central Ohio will stay snow throughout.

By early Sunday, snow will begin to taper off. This storm system is moving in to a dry environment that will weaken it as it moves in. Parts of Missouri will see upwards of a foot of snow, but we won't see anywhere close to that, even though both locations will go through the same sector of the storm:

The past couple Euro model runshave picked up on this trend of the northern edge drying out early. Even though, with the position of the low, we would still be in a favorable area for continued snow, the low is transitioning to the coast at this time and taking the forcing with it. This quick dry-out will rob us of 1-2" of snow overall.

I'm not ready to put a snow map out just yet, I'll do that sometime tomorrow. But expect us all to wake up to Winter Weather Advisories tomorrow morning.

Enter the Winter

Now THIS is finall starting to look like winter. Today, not so much, with the high winds and temps close to 60. But the rest of the week finally gets us in the winter feeling.

First we will see these winds die down overnight and shift northwesterly. Then we see a common site after a strong storm passage: snow squalls. We'll see "streets" of snow lined up from Lake Michigan to Central Ohio as the day goes on. Don't be surprised if a handful of areas recieve a quick dusting.

Tomorrow will be a blustery day. Gusty winds, snow squalls and temps won't get out of the 20s.

And finally the weekend comes, where we should get our first real snow of the season. I talked about this potential a couple days ago, and now media and models are catching on to it.

As of now it doesn't appear to be a blockbuster event by any means, but a 2-3" event in the middle of an extremely snowless winter will feel like we hit the lottery.

I'll go in to more detail in the upcoming days about how this storm will play out, but a few days out shows a southern low that'll stay far enough south to keep us cold, allowing the northern fringe of moisture to fall as all snow:

It should be enough to shovel, but no so much that we shut the city down. A late start to snow season, but better late than never. I'll post much more coming up soon.

The Pattern Change Is Coming

We're heading in to the first full week of January, still without a snowflake in sight. The good news for fans of Winter is we're getting there, slowly but surely this week.

It's a gradual pattern shift, so first we start out with rain. Since we just finished the wettest year on record in Columbus, a little more rain shouldn't come as a shock to anyone. It's a two part system Monday through Tuesday. The first part brings the majority of our rain, while the second part brings some wind and a lot more winter-like air:

I wouldn't rule out some flakes on the backside of this Tuesday night, but that's not the payoff we're looking for. Our next chance at a storm has an outside shot at being our first legitimate snow maker of the season.

This is a southern low that'll start off the Texas Gulf coast. Since we're still 6+ days out, where it goes is still up for debate.

I don't care too much about what the models say this far out. Looking at the setup, I think we have two options. First option, the least likely one, is for this thing to curve up towards the Appalachians and bring us on the western edge of a decent snow maker. The second option is for this thing to stay flat, like every other system this season, and head straight across the Deep South and OTS:

If you've followed me long enough, you know which option I'm rooting for. But if you've lived in Central Ohio long enough, you know which one is least likely to happen too. Hint: the answer is the same.

There are other chances on the horizon past this six day window, all thanks to this slow regime change we'll be going under. But all I'm concerned about right now is this upcoming weekend. Just stick with us through one more warm system to start the week, and the hope is it'll all pay off with a back loaded winter.

At least we hope.