UPCOMING: More Squalls

I wouldn't say we're in for a lot of snow over the next couple days, but it feels like we have a lot of chances for snow.

A couple days ago this incoming clipper seemed like it may bring more snow than the Saturday one we had. I was thinking this one may pack a bigger punch, bringing possibly 2+". Well, this storm will be more powerful, as it begins to bomb out as it heads toward the coast and brings gusty winds tomorrow in to Wednesday morning. But as you'll see below, an area I thought would have more moisture is pretty empty on the latest NAM simulated radar:

However, you'll notice behind the main push of the clipper an area of lake enhanced snow coming off of Lake Michigan. It takes a pretty strong flow off the lakes to bring bands this far south and east, but tomorrow may be one of the few times a year the environment will be just right. 

If the original area had developed overnight tonight, I think we could be waking up to half an inch tomorrow. Instead we saw a Special Weather Statement from the NWS this afternoon highlighting the chance for some freezing drizzle in the morning. I think that chance is very slim. Instead, I think the threat will still be the chance for some light snow overnight, followed by the chance of some heavy snow squalls throughout the day and very gusty winds.

So how much accumulation could we have? It's hard to tell. It'll all depend on where the bands off of the lake setup. Look at this snowfall model showing huge local differences:

So I say on average we should see half an inch of snow over Central Ohio over the next 24 hours. And then get ready for more on Wednesday night, which I'll talk more about after this system. Sure is an active period!

SUMMARY: It Did Snow

This storm didn't over or under achieve. It was exactly what we thought for our first snow of the season, just about an inch everywhere in Central Ohio. Here's the totals from the NWS:

Franklin County...
   2 S Downtown Columbu   1.5   800 PM 12/09  Public                  
   KCMH John Glenn Cbus   1.4   651 PM 12/09  ASOS                    
   Clintonville           1.3   719 PM 12/09  Public                  
   1 NNW KTZR Bolton Fi   1.0   830 PM 12/09  Trained Spotter         
   Canal Winchester       1.0   711 PM 12/09  Trained Spotter         
   6 WSW Downtown Colum   0.7   625 PM 12/09  Public                  
   Hilliard               0.5   333 PM 12/09  Public

Pickaway County...
   1 NNW Circleville      1.0  1001 PM 12/09  Dept of Transportation

Fairfield County...
   2 SSW Lancaster        0.5   629 PM 12/09  Dept of Transportation

Delaware County...
   Sunbury                1.1   857 PM 12/09  Broadcast Media         
   3 NNE Westerville      1.1   836 PM 12/09  Social Media            
   N Delaware             0.5   408 PM 12/09  Public

Licking County...
   5 SSE Heath            0.3   909 PM 12/09  Dept of Transportation

I ended up with 1.25" here in Canal Winchester, accumulating over several hours yesterday. We only saw a couple of heavier bands that lasted for a short time, so we never got those pockets of 2"+ around town.

While I didn't have time to get my drone out for some sky shots of the snow, this is the timelapse of the snow covering up my roof cam:

Next up, another chance of snow tomorrow night in to Tuesday. As of now I think the heavier accumulations stay north of us as the clipper moves more through the Great Lakes, but I'll update tomorrow with details.

Season Stats:
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0
Blowing Snow Advisory- 0

Snowfall Totals:
November: 0" (Predicted: 0")
December: 1.25" (Predicted: 1")

Season: 1.25"

First Snow of '17-'18 Season

Here it comes, a quick hitting clipper across the lakes will bring us our first measurable snow of the season.

It doesn't present as much on radar, but I think this has the potential to overachieve for some people. Do I mean huge totals? No. Just in the sense that I don't expect more than an inch for everyone, and a band could come off Lake Michigan later that drops another inch.

This entire area is actually going to begin to rotate later today as this interacts with the east coast system. The snow you see on radar right now over Lake Michigan is going to rotate down in to our area after dark. This should be an off and on all day and night snow for us, so if some areas reach two inches, I wouldn't be surprised. However for now, I'm staying conservative and saying one inch for Central Ohio.

UPDATE: First Accumulation of the Season Expected Saturday

We're a little over 48 hours out from a clipper diving through the area Saturday and more than likely giving most of us our first coating of snow of the season. While I wouldn't expect this to be anything more than a light accumulation, the trends are bringing the low pressure further and further south with each model run. The further south that tracks, the higher our totals.

The latest NAM depicts a light snow across the area Saturday afternoon:

The scattered nature is what should keep totals low for Central Ohio, and further north it's a more solid distribution, leading to over an inch.

Speaking of totals, NWS Wilmington put this out this morning:

I think this is a good reference point for what the accumulation gradient should look like, but I don't think this forecast should be considered official just yet. Again, if that low pressure dives any further south, parts of Columbus could get closer to that 1-2" range.

I'll finalize my forecast tomorrow and post again then.

Ok, Now Here Comes Winter

Have you enjoyed the warm temps the past few days? So far every day has hit 50° in December, which is a very warm rarity. But that changes now. Here comes the much advertised cold from that'll bring permanent winter air our way:

Expect gusts up to 40mph this afternoon and temps dropping to the 30s before sunset. That'll be a shock to the system to some of these warm weather lovers around here. For people like me? I know what it means.

SNOW.

Ok, don't get too excited. This doesn't mean we'll get 12" in the next week. But little bouts of snow showers could be possible a couple times in the near future:

Wednesday

Nothing much to see here. There's a chance of flurries as the cold air spills in behind today's cold front.

Saturday

Even with it being several days out, there's a pretty good consensus with models that we should see a clipper dive through the Great Lakes Friday night in to Saturday. Again, I'm not thinking this is a huge event by any means, but a quick inch wouldn't be out of the question:

Beyond that I'm thinking we could see another clipper a couple days later. That's way too far out to track just yet, but the point I'm making is the pattern is finally here. After weeks of nothingness, we're active and cold. 

As far out as 10 days away we're still in a very cold pattern, too. Continuous reinforcing shots of cold air are spilling in behind each clipper, keeping us a solid 10-15° below normal. The combination of cold and activeness should lead to some light snow once every 2-3 days as long as this pattern continues. 

Good news for us snow lovers, bad news for everyone else.